RBC Canadian Open Best Bets

After a two-year drought, we are finally returning to the land up north. The RBC Canadian Open will take place this week at St. George’s Golf & Country Club in Toronto, ON. Due to Covid-19 restrictions, the Tour was not able to make this tournament work the past two years. 

I know it might not seem like it but there is a PGA Tour event this week! With the whirlwind of news regarding the new LIV Golf league, the shine has certainly been taken away from the PGA Tour. 

The last time we saw this event played, Scottie Scheffler was on the Korn Ferry Tour, Viktor Hovland was an amateur, and Collin Morikawa had zero PGA tour wins. As for the course, we have not seen St. George’s Golf and Country Club in 12 years and it has undergone a major restoration of the green complexes. 

In a week where there are quite a few unknowns, it is always great to check out @PGASplits101 course breakdowns as they are super informative and help you get a better grasp on the course at hand. 

Let us get into my bets for this week.

Outright: Tyrell Hatton +2800 (Caesars) 

If there is a guy in this field is that is long overdue for a win on tour, it’s Tyrell Hatton. The Englishman has not lifted a trophy on this side of the pond since March of 2020. Another reason I like Hatton is just the value on his number. In a weaker field with not much value, I think a 28/1 is a great price on Tyrell.

Hatton possesses a ton of consistency. Since the fall of 2021, Hatton has 13 Top 30 finishes worldwide. Hatton has found a lot of ways to grind out respectable finishes, even when he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Hatton has quietly put together a very nice season on the PGA Tour. Hatton comes into the 2022 RBC Canadian Open on the heels of a 13th place finish at the PGA Championship. That week, he gained 3.6 strokes on approach. I expect Hatton to continue this form. 

Over the past 36 rounds, Hatton ranks 13th in Approach and 9th in Strokes Gained – Putting . That is always a deadly combination on the PGA Tour. If he can marry those two together, he will be in the mix on Sunday and can hopefully cash an outright ticket. 

Top 10: Justin Thomas +110 (Caesars) 

I will admit that these are not sexy or amazing odds on a top 10 finish, but I do believe that this is a winner. 

The biggest reason that I like JT this week is that I think he saw what finishing top 10 the week before a major did for him. Thomas finish T5 at the Byron Nelson the week before a major, this vaulted him into his PGA Championship victory just a week later. 

Off a missed cut in his last start, I really like this spot for JT. He is the best iron player in the world. At a golf course with five long Par 3’s, it’s a recipe for success. 

Over the past 36 rounds, Justin Thomas ranks 1st in this field in Ball striking, Strokes Gained – Tee-to-Green, 4th in Strokes Gained – Approach, and 5th in Strokes Gained – Off-the-Tee. There isn’t anyone on the planet that is even close to hitting their irons and driver as well as Justin Thomas is right now. 

St. George’s is a golf course where you are going to have to shape your irons and tee shots. JT is the man for the job.

Top 20: Keith Mitchell +210 (FanDuel) 

Again, I think this is extremely good value on a golfer that has finished inside the top 20 in 7 of his last 12 starts on tour. As shown, by that stat, Killa Keith has shown the upside on multiple occasions to have a great finish on tour. At 2/1 odds in a weaker field, coming off some great results, this is a no-brainer. 

Mitchell finished t18 at The Memorial last week, this was propelled by the 2.1 strokes he gained off the tee and the 2.6 strokes he gained putting. I think being an elite driver of the golf ball is going to be an important attribute this week and Keith certainly has that. 

Keith has also shown that he can contend on short positional golf courses, 12th at Pebble Beach and 9th at the Honda Classic, he is no stranger to clubbing down off the tee. 

Top 40: Adam Svensson +190 (FanDuel) 

This is a pure talent and upside play. Adam Svensson possesses more talent and upside than the other golfers around him. He is a Canadian that is ripe for a solid finish at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open.

Svensson’s two best finishes on the PGA Tour this season have come on short positional golf courses. He finished 9th at the Honda Classic and  7th at the Sony Open. Both courses are under 7200 yards and reward accuracy off the tee. That’s where he excels. He also is elite on his longer approach shots. That will also be a useful tool in his arsenal for St. George’s.

This Canadian also has made three cuts in row. With the FedEx Cup Playoffs on the horizon, he’s motivated to make a push to secure his Top 125 spot. Expect him to show well at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open and finish inside the top 40. 

Matchup: Rory Mcllory -130 over Cameron Smith (DraftKings)

I am honestly shocked by this line, I would make Rory -150 over Cam this week so I think there is some value here. Cam Smith is coming off a poor ball-striking performance en route to a 13th place finish last week. 

Rory is the defending champion of this event, he is an elite driver of the golf ball and has shown he can dominate in an event like this. Rory finished 18th last week gaining 7.5 strokes from tee to green. In the three starts before that, Rory finished 2nd, 5th and 8th. I will take the more elite talent at -130 this week.

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Featured Image: Ross Kinnarid – Getty Images