PGA Championship Projections Preview

Each week, I share the top 20 players in our model’s projections based on win percentage. I also include reactions to the initial results and context as to why certain players landed higher or lower than the market. Here are the results for this week’s PGA Championship:

• My fellow namesake Sam Burns is showing up favorably this week and is likely being carried by his solid putting as of late. Over his last 20 rounds, he ranks ninth in strokes gained putting with 0.79. Five of the last seven PGA Championship winners gained at least a stroke putting on their way to victory, so Burns will need to carry this performance into the weekend to have a shot.
• Rory McIlroy, who previously appeared at the top of our model the past couple of weeks, now finds himself on the outside of the top 10 and looking in despite gaining an average of 2.37 strokes gained over his last 20 rounds (third best). Where his game has lagged is approaching the green as he ranks 22nd in strokes gained approach over the last three months.
• Patrick Cantlay is another golfer that is further down our board than the market would suggest, and his reasoning is a bit more clear as he ranks outside the top 20 in all of our model’s major categories (off-the-tee, approach, around-the green) over the last three months. Cantlay does have a pair of second-place finishes (RBC Heritage and WM Phoenix Open) over those three months, so he’ll have to channel those performances to give himself a shot this week.

Featured Image: Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images