PGA Championship Best Bets

The second major of the year is here! The PGA Championship at Southern Hills will be taking place over the next few days and I couldn’t be more excited. We only get four majors a year so I am going to enjoy this week very much.

We are ripe with storylines this week as Tiger Woods is making his second appearance at a major since his accident. Jordan Spieth is chasing a career grand slam, we have no Phil Mickelson and Scottie is looking to go back to back.

If the storylines were not enough for you, we have an exceptional golf course that has been getting nothing but rave reviews from pros all week. Southern Hills is a 7,550-yard par 70, with deep and ample bunkers, small undulating greens and massive run off areas. A course that opened during the Great Depression by Perry Maxwell and renovated by Gil Hanse, this classical course will be a true test of golf. 

The important aspect of the game that cannot be emphasized enough is just important around the green game is going to be. We are certainly in for a low greens in regulation percentage this week, which will leave even the most elite talent scrambling for par. With these run off areas and tight lies, reports from the grounds are that you cannot fake it. 

With literally every top player teeing it up this week, there are no bad options at the top of the board. It is truly a major where you feel like all the elite talent are coming in with great form. You could make a case for everyone at the top. 

I am going to do my best to find the right bet for the right golfer this week. There is so much value and options in these major championships that is sometimes hard to choose. However we had an excellent Masters in this article, so I think we can do the same this week. 

Outright: Shane Lowry +3500 (DraftKings)

If you are a fan of this article you know my affinity for Shane Lowry. I have written him up multiple times as my favorite outright and in many other markets. Other than completing ripping my heart out for an outright ticket at the RBC, he has been good to me. 

His last five starts he has gone 2nd, 13th, 12th, 3rd, 3rd. I don’t know how much more you can be trending for a win than this. Since February 1st, he ranks second in ball striking to only Jon Rahm. Not only is his ball-striking exceptional, he is great wind player, excellent around the greens, and is a major champion.

I would like to think that all these close calls were trending towards something and another major championship just might be it for him. There has been a lot of talk about how these green are most similar to Augusta. Lowry ranked 7th in SG: ARG there just a month ago. 35/1 for major champion in the best form on his life is an easy call me for me.

Top 10: Scottie Scheffler +160 (DraftKings) 

I am going to go out on a massive limb here and say that the best player in the world is going to be in contention this week. Let’s just get something out of the way, Scottie Scheffler has finished top 10 in his last two PGA Championships. This was before he was the number one player in the world with four wins and a green jacket. 

There’s a ton to like about Scheffler this week. He has a great combination of length and accuracy, excellent iron play, and excels in difficult scoring conditions. But there’s more to love besides that. As mentioned earlier, performance around the green is critical this week. Scottie has gained around the green in each of his last 8 starts. Forget the strokes gained data. If you watched the 2022 Masters, you saw some miraculous up and downs.

In addition, he kept the momentum going with a good performance at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Scheffler posted a T15 finish at the Byron Nelson where he gained 5.5 strokes on approach. I see no world in which Scottie is not in the mix this week. There is no such thing as a sure thing in golf betting, but Scottie being in contention this week is as close as you are gonna get. 

Top 20: Corey Conners  +220 (DraftKings) 

Conners was the first-round leader at the 2021 PGA Championship en route to a 17th place finish. If that is not a testament to how talented of a ball striker Conners is than I don’t know what is. Over the past 36 rounds, Corey Conners ranks 7th in SG: Ball Striking and 7th in SG: OTT. 

In an event where hitting the right side of the fairway is going to be so important, I will take one of the most talented drivers of the ball on tour. I also think it is excellent that he has been so great at the Masters. Conners has back-to-back top 10 finishes at Augusta. Carried by his excellent ball striking and around the greens game, I think its a great comp this week. 

Conners has proven it in difficult major conditions, has made 6 straight cuts, and is going to hit more greens in regulation than anyone in the field. This is a easy an top 20 play for me. 

Top 40: Keegan Bradley +120 (DraftKings) 

The disrespect put on this PGA Champion! This is an outrageous number on a golfer that is on record for saying that he is playing “the best golf of his life”. Top 20 in his last start at a PGA Championship, along with three top 10 finishes in his last four starts. This bet is a no-brainer to me. 

What has been so impressive to me is that he is actually been putting well recently. He gained 9.8 strokes putting at the Wells Fargo, a club that has always held him back in his career. He has been working with aimpoint recently and has certainly found something. 

Keegan ranks 7th in SG: T2G over the past 36 rounds, is inside the top 17 in both strokes gained on approach and off the tee, plus money for a top 40 is again a just a price that I have to take advantage of. 

Matchup: Collin Morikawa over Patrick Cantlay -110 (BetRivers/SugarHouse)

Collin Morikawa has two major championships at 25, and Patrick Cantlay has only two major top 10s. There is really no comparison here in major resumes between these two, and the fact that Collin is actually an underdog in this makes me like it even more. 

I am simply betting on the fact that Cantlay’s major record has not been great. Although he is a prolific winner on the PGA Tour, he has not been able to show that he can consistently be in contention in majors. Collin Morikawa has had a top 5 in every single major in just nine starts, that is truly a remarkable feat. Colin is clearly one of the best iron players on earth and in an event where getting greens in regulation is going to be paramount, this is an easy play. 

I have no doubt that one-day Cantlay will figure it out in Majors but I am not quite sure that is the week for it. Give me the 25-year-old two-time major champion at -110 here.

Featured Image: Mike Ehrmann – Getty Images