Golf BettingPay Mayo’s 2026 PGA Championship Cheatsheet | Bets, Weather, Parlays, DraftKings Notes | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pay Mayo’s 2026 PGA Championship Cheatsheet | Bets, Weather, Parlays, DraftKings Notes | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo

3 days ago

2026 PGA Championship CHEATSHEET

THE FINAL WORD

Keith Stewart and I break down the course setup, weather, rough conditions, green complexes, and exactly what skill set is needed to win this year’s PGA Championship.

We discussed

Scottie Scheffler’s returning iron play
Rory McIlroy’s aggressive driving strategy
Cam Young as a potential breakthrough major winner
Sam Burns as a sleeper contender
Why putting may decide the championship
Bombers vs positional players at Aronimink
Best outright bets, placements, and betting angles
Keith’s Chipping Tips

Plus: on-site intel from practice rounds, player form analysis, and a custom Rabbit Hole stat model built specifically for Aronimink.

WATCH: PGA Championship 2026 Bets, One & Done, Make Cut Parlay | Insights From The Course | Keith’s Chipping Tips

I’ll be doing a Q&A on Twitter around 8:30 p.m. ET this evening. Normally, I’d do the live chat on YouTube, but I’ll be occupied with an 8-week-old this evening, so I’ll be in text-to-text answer mode rather than the text-to-yelling answers usually reserved for Major Championships.

Thursday, we’ll be LIVE TWICE post-round. First, Cust, Geoff, and I will be recapping Round 1. Then, after a 10-minute break, we’ll be doing the LIVE NFL SCHEDULE REACTION!!! One of our viewers’ favorite shows of the year.

Both will be available on the PME audio feeds after the fact as well. SUB AND REVIEW PLEASE!!!!

SUB TO THE PME ON YOUTUBE FOR LIVE CONTENT!!!!!

Oh, Cut Sweat on Friday too. Tons going on over at MMN.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

WINNER

Scottie Scheffler +525

PROPS

Straka low Austrian Player -225
Hideki low Japanese Player -105

WINNER FUTURES

FIRST ROUND LEADER

Sam Burns +6000
Akshay Bhatia +7000
Shane Lowry +7500
Pierceson Coody +10000
Sam Stevens +11000

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The longer the week has gone along, the more I hate having hitched my wagon to a lone guy at the top with the revelation that bombs away off the tee may be the play. The good news is it’s Scottie, so he’ll likely be involved at some point come Sunday. If I was playing this week without a card of longshot future bets, I likely would have just bet Cam, Fitz, Burns, and MacIntyre. Maybe a couple others. I think I like my current positions better. You can still get Scheffler at +600 on Coolbet, btw (if you’re in Canada outside Ontario).

Latest News

Rory’s blister issues appear to be solved. He’s using a wider shoe and reported no problems in a 9-Hole Wednesday practice round. Said it hurt a bit walking down hills. That’s to be expected because it’s a fucking blister.

MAKE THE CUT

There are 156 players this week. But a floor of 18 of the PGA Professionals are cooked, while another 20-30 of the bottom-rung players from the PGA, DPWT, LIV, and Champions Tours are basically dead as well. So, let’s say 45 players aren’t making the cut. Since it’s Top 70 and ties, if my 45 number is accurate (not guaranteed), a minimum of 63% of the field is going to see the weekend. Now I pray I picked the right guys.

I actually played another version of this, but added Harris English and Shane Lowry for +17000 if you’re feeling frisky. Be aware: Daniel Berger is gonna blow this for us.

5×5 Picks Pool

Still need 73 people to fill this contest. help me out here. If you’re in the One and Done, it’s the same wallet, so it should be easy. It’s a simple game, pick 5 golfers within the $15 salary cap. Takes 10 seconds if you want it to. We need 200 more people to join. Be a hero.

$20 to Play
$2,000 to First

PLAY IN PME 5×5 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS POOL

FIRST ROUND LEADER/WEATHER

After discussing the course conditions and strategy after he’d walked the course this week, Keith and I built a simplified model targeting players with the right baselines to succeed. Doesn’t mean they’ll live up to those expectations, but there’s a path to hit upside.

RABBIT HOLE

Keith passed along to me Wednesday afternoon that the wind keeps picking up later in the day, and the overnight rain isn’t expected to do much to soften the course overnight, if any comes at all. So anticipate the course playing very firm and fast.

Projections, Stats & Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

Sign up to the Rabbit Hole this week with code MAYO and get in a draw for a free year.

Although I’m betting Burns for FRL, that’s only playing a hunch. The remainder of the card is players going off at least a couple hours into the day. Having played a bunch of golf already in the Northeast, you can feel the very early morning rounds in your hands, especially when the clouds are blocking the sun. By 10:30 a.m. ET, the sun will be out and it’ll be pristine golf weather in Philly, so I’m banking those players will have a better chance of posting the outlier elite round.

WIND TOWER: Wayne Pennsylvania USA

DRAFTKINGS

If you missed the DraftKings discussion, Tambo, Blickle, and I gave our initial thoughts on the field, made different variations of lineups, and discussed the best tournaments to attack. Check it out if you missed it. Or just watch it again. All helps.

If you just wanna hit the easy button, go to the Rabbit Hole (REMINDER: Anyone using code “MAYO” to sign up this week gets entered into a draw for a FREE YEAR) and use the tools. Here’s what the top of the ownership in large-field GPPs is looking like.

You can see the ownership tiers forming among the most expensive players. Scheffler, Cam, Rahm, Xander, and Ludvig are all Tier 1 for ownership. Rory and Fitzpatrick are on the level below them. Then Bryson and Morikawa are well into the single digits.

After that, in pricing order, there may not be another player in the double digits of ownership until Si Woo Kim at $7,900. Burns and Cantlay may sneak over 10%, but it’s unlikely to be by much. There’s a pocket of Min Woo, Scott, and Rickie that is projecting well above the rest in that range.

Once you get below $7,000, almost a quarter of the field is expected to pick Nicolai Højgaard. I love Nicolai, but that’s an easy fade. Even more so when you know he’ll be paired with Scheffler and/or Young in a high percentage of lineups.

After him, the only others sniffing 10% ownership are Reitan, Puig, Detry, Smalley, and maybe Matt McCarty. In the sub-$6.5K range, Alex Fitzpatrick is probably my favorite, along with Michael Thorbjornsen.

UNDERDOG

FYI: There are bonuses GALORE in the lobby, so use as many as you can. But three things stick out to me that we can leverage on Underdog.

These are huge greens (8,300 sq. ft.), so GIR% is going to be quite high. Underdog has adjusted for this and set most numbers at 14.5. I still like the over on that.

Fairways are going to be hit at a low percentage for bombers. With the rough not being very penal, they just won’t care. And they’ll be tough to hold based on the conditions. So, the under on those is the play.

Finally, while there aren’t any markets for it yet, keep an eye out for the 1-9 hole scoring and 10-18 hole scoring. The front is really scorable, whereas the back is much tougher. If those numbers drop, it could be a smash spot if you’re first on the scene before the numbers get whacked.