HomeGolf BettingPat Mayo’s 2026 PGA Championship Picks, Preview, Rankings | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo’s 2026 PGA Championship Picks, Preview, Rankings | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo

3 days ago

3 days ago

Pat Mayo’s 2026 PGA Championship Picks, Preview, Rankings | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 PGA Championship Picks

Mayo and Ryan Noonan take a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making early 2026 PGA Championship Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course at Aronimink GC. Plus, research on Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler, and the entire field heading into the second major championship of the golf season.

WATCH: PGA Championship Picks, Research, Sleepers, Aronimink Course Preview

2026 PGA Championship Field

  • Field: 156 Players
  • Cut: Top 70 & Ties
  • Begins: Thursday, May 14
  • Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler

SUB TO FREE PME NEWSLETTER TO GET ALL ARTICLES AND CHEATSHEETS EARLY + EXTRA INFO & BREAKING NEWS

Between the monotony of Signature Events and the constant chatter about the dissolution of LIV, the life has been sucked out of the year’s second Major. Which sucks, because it shouldn’t be that way.

Scottie is returning to form, Cam Young is on a generational heater, the Fitzpatrick brothers loom, Rory is coasting off Augusta good vibes, Bryson and Rahm loom from LIV, while Xander and Fleetwood are close but struggling to put four rounds together. Couple in the PGA Championship delivering the most packed Sunday leaderboards over the last decade, and this should be a BANGER of a Major. Plus, Aronimink is the classic style, Northeast course I’m a slut for. I’m excited. And I’ll try and get you PUMPED too.

Gil Hanse’s Aronimink restoration got the course back closer to the original Donald Ross design. It started in 2016, through 2017, and was completed by the time of the 2018 BMW Championship. The largest change was the strategic bunkering. Diagonal fairway bunkers and cross bunkers were brought back into play during the Hanse restoration. Almost 75 bunkers were added during that restoration, with the total on the property now sitting at 174.

Since players are even longer now than they were almost 10 years ago, yardage has been added to a handful of holes to ensure these bunkers create decisions for the field off the tee. Overall, about 100 yards have been added to Aronimink since the 2018 event.

While it shouldn’t be surprising, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are already OUT of the PGA Championship. The biggest name with a question mark currently is Jake Knapp. In the midst of a career year, Knapp has withdrawn from each of the past two tournaments before they started with a hand injury. Sources tell me he’s going to be out this week, too, but there’s always a chance he attempts to give it a go. Wouldn’t trust him either way. Marco Penge and The Chairman, William Mouw, were both WD from the Myrtle Beach Classic last week, too. Both are expected to play at Aronimink.

2026 PGA Championship Pool

The PME Picks Pool IS BACK!!!!!! Five picks, $15 Salary Cap, $20 to play, $2000 to first. Choose wisely…

PLAY IN $20 ($2K TO 1st) PME PICKS POOL

2026 PGA Championship Picks

2026 PGA Championship Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Distance from Edge of the Fairway
  • Par 3s Gained: 200+ Yards
  • SG: Major Championships

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 PGA Championship Picks

2026 PGA Championship Course

  • Course: Aronimink GC
  • Yardage: 7,394
  • Par: 70
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • Average Green Size: 8,300 sq. ft.
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 174
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 3

Par 3’s (4) Average Distance – 215 yards

  • 1 under 200 yards
  • 1 200-225 Yards
  • 2 225+ Yards

The 3 long ones are 3 of the 4 toughest holes on property (two on the back-9)

#8 has a 28.9% bogey rate (no other hole has a bogey rate of 21% or higher)

Par 4’s (12): Average Distance – 448 yards

  • 1 under 400 yards
  • 4 400-450 yards
  • 5 450-500 yards
  • 1 500+ yards

The two toughest Par 4’s both come on the back-9 (Hole 10 has a 5.5% double-or-worse rate next to just a 9.8% under par rate)

Five Par 4’s have a sub-15% under par rate

Par 5’s (2): Average Distance – 580 yards

The two easiest holes on the course, with #16 virtually a must get (49.3% go under par with just 4.9% carding six or worse)

The long #9 gets scored on, but there is some variance with a 10.6% over par rate and an eagle rate (1.2%) that is less than half of #16

2026 PGA Championship H2H Picks Contest

If you’re in Canada (Outside Ontario), make sure you’re logging into Coolbet each round to submit your round predictions in the PME Picks Contest. And, it’s FREE TO PLAY!!!!!

The game is straightforward: they’ve set up head-to-head matchups, and you just need to predict the exact score for both golfers. For example, if you put down Scottie Scheffler for a 69 and Rory McIlroy for a 68, Rory is your predicted winner.

You’ll rack up 10 points if you nail the winner and both exact scores. You get 6 points for the winner plus one score, or 3 points just for picking the winner. And don’t worry— if your golfer loses but you still nailed their exact stroke count, you still walk away with 1 point. There will be new matchups before the start of every round.

Most points by Sunday’s final putt wins the Grand Prize.

PLAY IN THE FREE COOLBET PME H2H PICKS CONTEST

2026 PGA Championship Past Winners

PAST WINNERS

PAST WINNER DETAIL

2025: Scottie Scheffler (co-favorite with Rory at +450) beats Bryson DeChambeau, Davis Riley, and Harris English by 5

Bunched leaderboard behind Scottie (16 in total finished with a share of 8th place or better)

13 of the top 16 finishers gained strokes putting from 5-10 feet (3 of the top 6 were a negative from 10-15 feet – including Scheffler)

>> Scheffler led in with a win at the CJ Cup as a part of 4 straight top-10’s prior (4th at The Masters)

2024: Xander Schauffele (+1400, T-3 on the odds board) beats Bryson DeChambeau by 1

4 of the 6 best ARG golfers for the week cashed top-10 paychecks (Cam Smith and Hideki Matsuyama were the exceptions: that’ll happen when you bleed strokes both OTT and APP in a big boy event)

>> Schauffele led in with a 2nd place at Wells Fargo (his 4th top-10 in the 5 events prior, including an 8th at The Masters)

2023: Brooks Koepka (+2000, T-6 on the odds board) beats Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland by 2

Finishing position for the top APP golfers of the week: 2nd-7th-4th-7th-1st-2nd

>>Finished 2nd at the Masters

2022: Justin Thomas (+1600, T-3 on the odds board) beats Will Zalatoris in a playoff

7 of the top 8 finishers gained Distance … Thomas and Zalatoris both lost Fairways

>>Thomas led in with a 5th place at Byron Nelson (8th at The Masters)

2021: Phil Mickelson (+25000, priced the same as Branden Grace and behind KH Lee) beats Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen by 2

6 gained 5+ strokes ARG, and 4 of them cashed top-10 paychecks

>>69th at Wells Fargo prior, 21st at The Masters (outlier across the board)

ARONIMINK HISTORY

2018 BMW Championship (Aronimink GC): Keegan Bradley -20 (beats Justin Rose in a playoff with Schauffele and Horschel one shot outside of the playoff)

  • Finishing position of the top putters for the week (starting with the best putt): 1st-3rd-8th-41st (shoutout Rafa Cabrera Bello!)-6th-8th-12th-2nd-3rd-8th
  • 3 of the top-7 finishers and 5 of the top-14 actually lost strokes off the tee
  • The top-7 finishers all gained Prox:200+ (Bradley and Rose both lost strokes Prox125-150 and 150-175)
  • Finishing position of the top 4 in Par 3 scoring for the week: 3rd-24th-2nd-3rd
  • 11 of the top 14 on the final leaderboard were better than the field at avoiding left misses off the tee

PGA Championship FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2025
64 – Jhonny Vegas (PM)

2024
62 – Xander Schauffele (AM)

3-clear of anyone else

2023
66 – Bryson DeChambeau (AM)

2022
65 – Rory McIlroy (AM)

2021

67 – Corey Conners (PM)

2 clear of six golfers at 69 (Conners shot a 75 on Friday … six of the seven who shot 69 or better on Thursday fired 75 or worse on Friday with Sam Horsfield carding an 80)

2026 PGA Championship Trends

10 straight years with an American champion (2015 Jason Day)

Phil Mickelson and Collin Morikawa were exceptions on either side, but 6 of the past 8 PGA Champions won the event at age 28-33 with four in that 28-29 bucket)

Scottie Scheffler in 2025 is the only one over the past decade to win by more than 2 strokes.

*Importance of Moving Day in 2025

  • Scheffler carded a 65, the best round of the day
  • Davis Riley carded a 67, his best round of the week (finishes T-2)
  • JT Poston and Keegan Bradley tie their best rounds of the week (68) and finish top-10

2026 PGA Championship CONTENT

2026 PGA Championship Notes

The final hole has been stretched longer than the rest and now plays 490 yards.

Expect lengthy rough and green-speed conditioning aimed at making Aronimink firmer and more penal than past tournaments. There’s an issue with that, however. It’s May. In the Northeast. It’s not like the region has been on a hot and dry bender. This was a similar problem last year at the Philadelphia Cricket Club when it subbed in for the Truist Championship at exactly the same time of year. While still difficult, the teeth of the course were numbed with Novocaine. The fescue hadn’t fully grown in, making errant shots far less penal, and the green speeds simply couldn’t get fast enough.

This will likely be a similar issue with Aronimink. While it certainly won’t play slow, achieving the firm conditions to make this a truly difficult test may simply not be possible. Especially based on the early forecast.

Temperatures are going to hang from 50-65 most of the week and aren’t expected to breach 70 until Saturday afternoon. That’s along with cloudy conditions and a touch of rain. Not conducive to firm and fast golf courses.

Anticipate the rough being quite penal to compensate, and colder, damp conditions will only make it tougher. And, as someone who has been playing Northeast golf the past few weeks, 65 degrees in the wind when the sun is behind clouds feels frigid.

While bombers have been the skeleton key at PGA Championships the past decade, a combination of accuracy and elite iron play is likely to take the forefront this week, much like we saw at Oakmont for last year’s US Open. Although no one thinks it will be remotely as difficult as Oakmont. This doesn’t mean bombers won’t play here; it simply means the bomb-and-gouge method may not be the correct strategy. Bombers like Rory McIlroy can’t simply hit woods off the tee and vastly improve their accuracy while still sitting at a similar distance to the Russell Henleys of the world. Fairways are going to be imperative because of the green complexes.

While they likely won’t come into the same zip code in terms of speed, the putting surfaces at Aronimink are constructed like Augusta National. They are massive and heavily tiered, with each green having separate quadrants that will repel approach shots and out-of-position chips. From the fairway, players can control their spin. Not so much from the thick rough. And unlike last year at Quail Hollow or at Southern Hills in 2022, there are fewer shaved, run-off areas green side; and when there are, they generally just filter into the thick grass. Without the ability to control spin from those shots, it could lead to significant rollout if the weight isn’t correct. Like a lot of Donald Ross courses, the majority of the greens slope from back to front. Expect the short game to resemble the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill (Brooks Koepka won), which was also a Ross design.

If we focus on just distance and accuracy (I’m using “Average Distance from Edge of the Fairway” as the stat instead of driving accuracy), along with approach, here are the top players in just those three categories.

2026 PGA Championship Picks

Now, this hasn’t been adjusted for difficult conditions, the strength of the field, and only takes stats from 2026, hence why it’s different than the actual PGA Championship POWER RANKINGS, but this is a different look at the type of player that could excel this week.

And, if you shrink the sample down to just the start of the Florida Swing, you get a few different names rising up the rankings…

J.J. Spaun, eh? He did win a Major in Pennsylvania less than 12 months ago.

Obviously, you can manipulate the data any way you like when you use the Rabbit Hole. Code “MAYO” gets you 25% off any subscription level and gets you access to all the projections, simulations, discord, etc; and I’ll draw one person who signs up with code “MAYO” this week to get a FREE sub for a year!

Use code “MAYO” at the Rabbit Hole for 25% OFF

The course has the ability to bogey the field to death, but based on the expected conditions, players who are hitting fairways, get locked in with irons, and roll a hot putter should find themselves well into the double digits below par.

2026 PGA Championship Picks

Scottie Scheffler — I can’t think of a course that overemphasizes Scheffler’s skills while detracting from many of the elite skills of his closest peers. Unless Cameron Young is simply inevitable, of course. The knock all year on Scottie has been his irons. During the first few months of the season, Scheffler was over a shot per round worse on approach than he’d been at any point over the last three years. Whatever clicked at The Masters in the third round has gotten him almost all the way back. He’s lost on approach in just one round since (Round 4 at Heritage), which has led to three consecutive runner-up finishes. Because of the setup, there’s room for an accuracy/irons maven like Fleetwood, Henley, or Si Woo to challenge for a victory. The problem is, Scheffler is the most evolved form of that type of player.

2026 PGA Championship Picks

 

Subscribe for Free Weekly Newsletter