Pat Mayo’s 2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

Mayo’s 2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

WATCH: CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks, Research, Rankings, Sleepers, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Field

• Field: 145 Players
• Cut: Top 65 and Ties
• First Tee: Thursday, May 21
• Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title. His main threats will be Si WOO Kim, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Sungjae Im. Beyond that, there’s a wave of youthful big hitters: Pierceson Coody, Michael Thorbjornsen, Rasmus Hojgaard, Taylor Pendrith, Keith Mitchell, Michael Brennan, David Thompson, Rico Hoey, Aldrich Potgiter, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, and Johnny Keefer.

Max Greyserman, Tom Kim, Wyndham Clark, and Tony Finau are also playing.

As of this writing, Aaron Rai is currently listed in the field. I have my doubts he’ll end up boarding his flight to Dallas. But maybe I’m wrong. That’s been known to happen. (Aaron Rai withdrew).

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2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Key Stats

• SG: Approach
• Proximity 175+ Yards
• Par 4s Gained 450-500 Yards
• SG: Off The Tee
• Eagles Gained

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Course

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Par: 71
• Yardage 7,385
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Average Green Size: 6,778 sq. ft.
• Number of Sand Bunkers: 83
• Number of Holes Water is in Play: 13

Par 3’s (4)

-> Three over 200, one at 135 yards

• 4 of the 8 hardest holes on property, all with a par rate over 70%
• 2025 Scheffler: Carded a birdie on each of them at some point during the win … of his 4 bogeys for the week, 2 came on Par 3’s

Par 4’s (11)

-> Two under 375, 3 from 400-450 (first three holes), 6 at 450 + (six of the final seven Par 4s are 450+)

• Scoring stretch: The 5 easiest Par 4’s come from Hole 6-11
• 2025 Scheffler: Only 4 Par 4 back-9 birdies for the week

Par 5’s (3)

• The 3 easiest holes, all carrying an Eagle rate over 2.5% (three with a sub 5% bogey rate)
• 2025 Scheffler: The 2 on the front-9 … 6 birdies and 2 eagles

2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Past Winners

• 2025: Scottie Scheffler (-31, eight clear of Erik van Rooyen)
• 2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23, one clear of Ben Kohles)
• 2023: Jason Day (-23, one clear of Si-Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat)
• 2022: KH Lee (-26, one clear of Jordan Spieth)
• 2021: KH Lee (-25, three clear of Sam Burns)

2025: Scottie Scheffler (+1100, betting favorite) beats Erik van Rooyen by 8

• Scheffler was 6th in putting, 3rd OTT, and 1st APP
• BS ranks of those who finished 1-2-3-4 for the week: 1-2-37 (Sam Stevens) – 3

2024: Taylor Pendrith (+8000) beats Ben Kholes by 1

• The top 3 finishers were all top 15 ARG and top 30 P
• Both Pendrith (69th in APP) and Kohles (75th OTT) overcame a shaky part of their game

2023: Jason Day (+1800, 3rd on the better board behind Scheffler and Hatton) beats Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat by 1

• Day led T2G to offset 35th in putting, Eckroat led in P to offset 129th in ARG
• Only two of the top-10 OTT golfers for the week cashed a top-10 paycheck

2022: KH Lee (+10000) beats Jordan Spieth by 1

• The top 4 finishers were all top-10 in APP (Hideki led in APP and finished T-3rd despite ranking 97th ARG)
• James Hahn with one of the more odd profiles for a top-10 finish: 2nd in OTT, 2nd in APP, 108th in ARG, 115th in P

2021: KH Lee (+15000) beats Sam Burns by 3

• 3 of the top-6 finishers were outside of the top 80 ARG for the week
• Round 4 for the top 6 finishers (Starting with Lee): -6, -2, -8, -4, -9 (Patton Kizzire), and -6

The KH Lee Profile … Lee has won this thing in consecutive seasons, so why not take a look at exactly what he has done at a high level during those two seasons. Taking into account all rounds in 2021 and 2022, here are a few of the areas Lee gained strokes on the field in the majority of his rounds (not just at Byron Nelson, but overall):

• Ball Striking (61%)
• 3-putt avoidance (59.8%)
• Par 4 scoring, 450-500 yards (57.3%)
• Fairways gained (56.9%)

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2025

• 61 – Scottie Scheffler, PM (two clear of anyone else)

2024

• 63 – Matt Wallace, AM (six-way tie at 64 one stroke behind him)

2023

• 60 – SY Noh, AM – first group (three clear of anyone else)

2022

• 60 – Sebastian Munoz, AM (four clear of anyone else)

2021

• 63 – Jordan Spieth, PM and JJ Spaun, AM (his best round of the event by six strokes)

2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson NOTES

At the conclusion of the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, the dozers rolled onto the property and construction began on a complete course redesign led by Lanny Wadkins.

The renovation was driven by widespread criticism that TPC Craig Ranch had become too easy for PGA Tour players, regularly yielding winning scores in the mid 20s under par.

TPC Craig Ranch changed nearly every playing surface on the course:

• 777 Bentgrass on greens
• Stadium Zoysia on fairways and approaches
• TifTuf Bermuda on tees and rough

The new bentgrass greens were specifically chosen to produce:

• faster speeds
• firmer surfaces
• smoother putting conditions
• better heat tolerance for Texas summers

The renovated course reopened to members in late 2025 / early 2026. Early reports say it now “feels like a brand new golf course,” with:

• reshaped greens
• expanded pin positions
• more strategic bunkering
• improved drainage
• more visually dramatic corridors

More changes…

• After being switched to a Par 4, hole 12 is now a Par 5 again. From 493 to 540
• Hole 18 has been switched from a 552-yard Par 5 to a 480-yard Par 4
• Starting 21 days later in May than a year ago.

2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson

It’s been half a decade for TPC Craig Ranch as an annual TOUR course, and a verdict has been reached: It’s easy. Not the easiest, but close. Just birdies and eagles everywhere. In its debut as a TOUR course in 2021, TPC Craig Ranch gave up the most birdies of any course that year, along with the fourth-most eagles. It was the track with the fourth-highest average scrambling rate as well; even if you miss greens, par will be saved 66% of the time. It all makes sense statistically. Players hit more fairways here than average, hit more GIRs, drive the ball farther, and three-putt less often.

Rowlett Creek runs throughout the course and forces players to either lay up or try to clear the hazards on about half the holes, but since it doesn’t provide too much difficulty from the fairway, “lay up” should be stricken from the record for a week.

With the way the holes are laid out, expect a larger-than-normal amount of approach shots from 175 yards and beyond. All three par 5s measure between 547 and 569 yards, and three of the par 3s are at least 200 yards. There are immediately seven holes where you’ll encounter approaches in that range. In five years, over 50% of approach shots have come from 175+ yards.

Beyond that, there are six par 4s over 450 yards, with another two under 360 yards. No. 14 is drivable by most of the field but with some risk, which we want from short par 4s. It’s a slight right-to-left drive guarded by bunkers to the right and a massive water hazard to the left. Expect a lot of the field to bail out into the right greenside bunkers and be forced to get it up and down for birdie. The field is making eagle at only a 1.5% clip while the birdie rate is a staggering 43%.

No. 6 plays 361 yards, but with no hazard area, some of the bigger hitters have given it a go from the box, although it’s just a tad too long to get to. It’s 341 yards to the front of the green with bunkers situated on each side of the putting surface. Like No. 14, it’s slightly right-to-left from the tee box, and a favorable bounce could sneak a drive between the front and right side bunker and squirt onto the putting surface.

Per The Rabbit Hole, the best players in the field on Par 4s under 350 yards over the past 18 months are…

Some Random Stats from TPC Craig Ranch in 2024

• 2,021 total birdies — 3rd most on TOUR
• 60 total eagles — 5th most on TOUR
• 26.48% birdie-or-better rate inside 125 yards — 4th easiest on TOUR
• 88.31% GIR inside 125 yards — 4th easiest on TOUR
• 66.70% scrambling rate — 2nd easiest on TOUR
• 94 hole-outs — 4th most on TOUR

Running those numbers through a super-processor, it’ll spit out El Cardonal at Diamanté, PGA West Stadium Course, Sea Island Seaside Course, and TPC Scottsdale as the courses that match some of the same numbers. Not positive those results are super helpful.

While that may be helpful and point somewhat in the right direction, I think looking at the combination of results from Farmers, Mexico, Houston, and Detroit makes far more sense since we’ve seen so much crossover success between those courses the past few years.

Here are the SG: TOTAL/ROUND leaders from only those courses since the beginning of 2023.

Projections, Stats & Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelson PICKS

Michael Brennan — Brennan is almost an auto bet at any lower quality field event once he clears +5000. Not that he’ll necessarily play well (most times he won’t), but he has the most repeatable, elite skill in golf: Driving the golf ball. Brennan’s combination of distance and accuracy isn’t found often. And he even did us a solid by imploding in the final round at the PGA Championship, pushing his name down the betting board this week. No, he’s not likely to beat Scheffler or even most in the field, but you’re going to get a week (like when he won in Utah) where he hits his irons decently, rides a hot putter, and wins by a touchdown.

Austin Eckroat — The runner-up to Jason Day here in 2024, Austin 316 is back to playing quality golf after a career dip. While playing sparingly because of the schedule, Eckroat’s posted consecutive Top 20s in which his irons and short game have started to surge. The driver isn’t all the way back to previous elite accuracy levels, but that’s not too much of a concern at Craig Ranch.

Hayden Springer & Ponyus Nyholm — These guys just keep popping up in the key metrics. Gamble responsibly. Definitely (losing) first round leader bets.