Pat Mayo’s 2026 John Deere Classic Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 John Deere Classic

Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 John Deere Classic picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course at TPC Deere Run.

John Deere Classic Picks, Research, Rankings, Sleepers, Course Preview

2026 John Deere Classic Field

• Field 144 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties
• First Tee: Thursday, July 2
• Defending Champion: Brian Campbell

With the release of the new PGA TOUR schedule, it appears that the John Deere Classic will survive into the future. But it’s unlikely to ever get a field this strong again. Landing a pair of Top-60 players in the world rankings is usually a stretch for the JDC, but there are 13 you’ll be able to spot in Silvis this week: Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, Jacob Bridgeman, JT Poston, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Michael Kim, Nico Echavarria, Pierceson Coody, Michael Brennan, and Ryo Hisatsune.

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Keith Mitchell, Eric Cole, Tom Kim, Johnny Keefer, Emiliano Grillo, and Max Greyserman are all arriving with good form. Meanwhile, Sungjae Im, Taylor Pendrith, Michael Thorbjornsen, Mac Meissner, Hao-Tong Li, Denny McCarthy, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, Blades Brown, Tony Finau, Max Homa, and Davis Thompson are looking to improve their position in the FedEx Cup standings.

That alone would make this the most competitive John Deere Classic field in ages, but there’s another name boosting the field strength: Jackson Koivun. This marks his first start as a professional. Obviously, he crushed college golf over the past few years, but his PGA TOUR results speak for themselves. Over the past year, Koivun has made five starts and has yet to finish worse than T23, which came at the U.S. Open two weeks ago. In his other four starts, he’s posted three Top-10 finishes. The other? A T11 at this very tournament last year.

2026 John Deere Classic KEY STATS

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Opportunities Gained
• Par 4s Gained 400-450 Yards
• Proximity Gained 50-100 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 John Deere Classic COURSE

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Yards: 7,327
• Par: 71
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. feet
• Sand Bunkers: 76
• Holes Water is in Play: 3

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 197 yards

-> Two under 190 yards, two over 210

• 2025 Campbell: Three bogeys for the week, and the two that came in his first 68 both came on Par 3’s
• Three of the six hardest holes are Par 3’s, and the only three holes with a par rate over 68%

Par 4’s (11): Average Distance – 433 yards

-> Three under 400, five from 420-455, and three north of 475

• 2025 Campbell: Seven Par 4 birdies through the first two rounds (only two over the weekend)
• 15 holes have a sub 16% bogey rate. The other three? Holes 9-15-18, all of which are Par 4’s and all of which have a bogey rate over 18%

Par 5’s (3): Average Distance – 576 yards

• 2025 Campbell: Birdied #17 in all four rounds
• Three of the four easiest holes on property (two with an eagle rate over 3%)

Custom Stat Database and Full Course Info Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

DFS STREAK

The two toughest holes on the course sit at the end of both 9’s as the PGA TOUR pretty clearly wants to remove any edge from stacking by starting position. If you play the course in order, you have a harder-than-average Par 4 sandwiching the difficult #9, but if you start on the back, you get access to three of the five easiest holes on the course in Holes 17-1-2.

I’m not sure you’re looking at a ton of wrap-around streaks, but if you’re breaking ties, getting access to a pair of Par 5’s in playing back-to-front is the way to go.

WINNERS

• 2025: Brian Campbell (-18, beat Emiliano Grillo in a Playoff)
• 2024: Davis Thompson (-28, four clear of Luke Clanton, CT Pan, and Michael Thorbjornsen)
• 2023: Sepp Straka (-21, two clear of Alex Smalley and Brandon Todd)
• 2022: JT Poston (-21, three clear of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo)
• 2021: Lucas Glover (-19, two clear of Kevin Na and Ryan Moore)

NOTE: That’s a lot of players who’ve done awesome at AMEX in their careers

2025: Brian Campbell -18 (+35000) beat Emiliano Grillo in a playoff

• Campbell ranked 146th OTT for the week (saved it with 10th APP, 16th ARG, and 7th P)
• Top-4 finishers for the week, scores in Round 1: -6, -6, -4, and -7

2024: Davis Thompson -28 (+2000) beat Luke Clanton, CT Pan, and Michael Thorbjornsen by 4

• The top-5 putters all cashed top-12 paychecks for the week
• Ball striking ranks for the top-4 finishers: 14th, 1st, 3rd, and 13th

2023: Sepp Straka -21 (+5000) beat Alex Smalley and Brendon Todd

• Straka was -9 on Sunday, Aberg -8 (finishes T-4 with Schenk, picked up 5 strokes in R4 on Schenk)
• ARG didn’t really matter: 4 of the top 5 finishers were outside of the top-30 ARG (three outside of the top-50)

2022: JT Poston -21 (+4000) beat Emiliano Grillo and Christiaan Bezuidenhout

• Ball striking ranks for the top 5: 5th-6th-19th-1st-4th
• ARG impact was all over the place … Poston was 2nd in ARG, Grillo was 49th, and C-Bez was 105th

2021: Lucas Glover -19 (+5000) beat Kevin Na and Ryan Moore by 2

• None of the podium finishers were top-30 OTT for the week (all were top-30 putting)
• The top-7 finishers were all -2 or better after Round 1 (5 of them were -4 or better)

2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21, two clear of Russell Henley)

• He was 5 strokes better over the weekend than he was the first two rounds and closed with his best (64, needed it to survive a 61 from Henley)
• One top-25 finisher lost strokes in approach … it was Frittelli (-0.9). He offset it by picking up a total of 12.3 strokes ARG+P.

2018: Michael Kim (-27, eight clear of Bryson Burgoon, Joel Dahmen, Francesco Molinari, and Sam Ryder)

• He led going into the weekend (63-64) and didn’t let up on moving day (64). It’s not hard to close when you have one of the top-4 rounds in each of the first three days.
• Kim picked up 13.5 strokes putting, helping him dominate in a week in which he was “just” 16th best T2G

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2025

• 62 – Doug Ghim (AM)

2024

• 59 – Hayden Springer (followed it with a Friday 71 with moderate winds, his worst round of the week)
• 61 – Sami Valimaki (followed it with a Friday 72, his worst round of the week by 6 strokes

2023

• 62 – Jonas Blixt (a week of extreme runs: 62-73-65-70)
• 64 – Grayson Murray (couldn’t hold the momentum, shot 70-69 over the next two days)

2022

• 62 – JT Poston (declined as the week wore on: 62-65-67-69)
• 64 – Michael Gilgic (his only round better than 68 for the week)

2021

• 63 – Sebastian Munoz (his best round of the week by 4 strokes) and Chesson Hadley (68-72-71 the rest of the way)
• 64 – 3-way tie that included Camilo Villegas (an outlier round: 71-67-73 the rest of the way)

2026 John Deere Classic Picks

Ben Griffin — It’s been a down season for Griffin. Expected, after churning out a career year. He’s started putting the pieces back together lately, however. After another solid outing at the Travelers, that’s three Top 20s in his past four starts. What’s even better is his approach play returning.

Griffin lost strokes to the field on approach in 10 of 11 starts between Pebble Beach and the PGA Championship. Since then, he’s gained in four straight, with his highest total of the season coming at TPC River Highlands, a course that mimics many of the same approach ranges as Deere Run.

Blades Brown — The kid is riding a heater right now. PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry Tour, it matters not to Brown. His T14 at the CJ Cup earned him Special Temporary Membership for the remainder of the year and marked his third Top-15 finish in his past four PGA TOUR starts.

In addition, he’s strung together five Top-20 finishes in his past seven Korn Ferry Tour appearances, including a runner-up and a third-place finish along the way. Eventually, the 19-year-old will learn how to close, and it becomes a lot easier when you’re constantly in contention. Oh, and approach shots from 50-150 yards are over-indexed compared to a standard PGA TOUR course at the John Deere Classic. Brown happens to be pretty good from those ranges.

Custom Stat Database and Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

ICYMI: BETS BETS

Last Thursday marked the start of the NFL Best Bets: Division Previews with the AFC East. Cam, Rob, and I will be going over all the divisions as we start ramping up for football. This Thursday, it will be the NFC West. Even if you don’t care about football in the middle of the summer, a Me/Cam/Rob show is always an easy way to kill an hour.

NFL Best Bets: AFC East Betting Preview, Predictions, Key Moves + Terrion Arnold Arrested