One and Done Strategy: Cognizant Classic

It was not a terrible week last week; not everything banged, but still, a few names found their way into Brian Campbell‘s shadow.  I hadn’t done any recapping of these yet and figured it’s not a bad idea as a part of the process.

Last weeks O&D Suggestions:

Safe-ish

Akshay Bhatia 9th
Stephan Jaeger T6th
Rasmus Hojgaard T34 (wrong Hojgaard I guess)
Aaron Rai T4
Alex Smalley T10

Get a little Weird

Chan Kim T17
Carson Young CUT
Rico Hoey CUT

Out of Mexico on onto the Florida Swing, as always, I’d suggest you check out Ron’s preview article.  If you’re a member, you can also take some early looks at models from myself, John Haslbauer, Andy Lack, and more.

Cutmakers

As always, starting with the finishing position view in the Rabbit Hole to see who’s been very good at finding the weekend over the past year. Davis Thompson standing out a bit with an impressive top 5% to go with his high cut rate.  This is also a good way to find some guys who likely don’t have the upside despite making tons of cuts. I love Mark Hubbard and all, but he’s making 80% of cuts and only finishing in the top 40 in half of those.

Elite Irons

Gaining strokes off the tee is tough here with how the course sets up and makes everyone hit the same damn shots to avoid the water danger.  Every course is a “2nd shot” course, but these types especially.  Looking at a bigger sample of strokes gained: approach to see who’s been able to consistently throw darts.  There is always some context needed here when you see some names popping up that you aren’t seeing high on the leaderboards.  Usually, it’s a trash short game.  We can forgive that a bit more this week, but it’s definitely the next step I’d take when researching some of the names on this list.

 

Par 5 Scoring

Even with the easier scoring conditions we likely see due to the rain in the forecast, the Par 5s will be massive for whoever is looking to climb the leaderboard. If you don’t score on the 5s, you’re losing ground (true almost everywhere, but especially here).  I sorted this by birdie or better rate and again found some fun names that tend to be team “can’t putt”.  Looking at your Jhonny Vegas.

 

Florida Golf

Finally, I wanted to look at how guys have played over the past five years in Florida.  so these samples include previous Hondas/Cogs, the API, the Players, and the Valspar.  I also ran a model with comp courses using a bigger sample of similar setups that you can see on the site. Some winners on this list, but interestingly enough, Shane Lowry isn’t one of them.  Sungjae won here five years ago, Kirk in 2023, and Eckroat last year.  Jordan Spieth won the Valspar in 2015 to start a hell of a summer that saw him win at Augusta, Chambers Bay, the Quad Cities and the Tour Championship.

 

One and Done Suggestions

Thesis this week: it’s still a small pot and the next two weeks a way more important.  No need to burn a big name like Sungjae Im or Shane Lowry if you have a better spot in mind down the road.  Find someone in that second tier that you like to win this week and just use them, no need to overthink the small purses.  Berger is likely very popular, as is Henley

Safe* (*as safe as one can be in Florida)

Daniel Berger
Russell Henley
Sepp Straka
Min Woo Lee
Ben Griffin

Squirrely (barely)

Michael Kim
Davis Thompson
Billy Horschel

Good Luck!