One and Done Players Championship Picks: Who to Target at TPC Sawgrass

A big of a make or break week, especially for the assholes who used Rory last week and got $0 dollars in a signature event (me).  This is an equally tough field, but with an even more volatile course and, of course, a bigger purse ($25 million, with $4.5 million to the winner).

I think while the approach for finding the one-and-done pick for the week needs to be slightly different than how you evaluated golfers for betting and DFS, some of the same core principles still hold true at a course like this.  With so many big names having missed the cut here over the years, form and function may matter more than just how highly a guy models out over a big sample.

Also, if you are NOT a member yet, this is a great week to take things for a test drive.  We’re offering weekly memberships for just $1 through Friday.  Use promo code SAWGRASS at checkout, and the discount will knock the seven-day price down to just one dollar American.

High Floors

I cannot have someone prone to flaking out this week!  We need high floors to go along with high ceilings.  There’s so much money to be made at Sawgrass, and finding guys who consistently stay at least within a stone’s throw of the leaders might be a good first stop.  I took the past year of playing in tough fields and sorted by the top 20%.  Henley has popped up in a lot of my research, but I’m not sure I want to bet him to win here.  As someone with high upside and seemingly low downside, though, he’s intriguing.

Staying Dry

With so much water (as well as sand and high rough), the blow up holes are out there and again, I’m trying to find the higher floor golfers who can manage their game and not end up in big trouble.  I went to a bigger sample here, looking at bogey avoidance over the past 24 months, only in rounds where water danger was high.  Not a ton to say about this snapshot, but I did sort by a few different metrics here and again, Henley is looking like a steady-Eddie.

 

Finding Greens

Last 12 months of GIR% when gaining GIR is average or tougher, and the rough penalty is average or tougher.  Basically, sorting out the rounds where missing doesn’t matter, and the greens are getting peppered.

Scrambling

While I’m leaning heavily on the approach this week, the greens ARE very hard to hit, and there will be a need to get up and down for par.  Looking at the past 12 months, the Rabbit Hole lets us look at only scrambling from the rough, which will put aside any around the green play from the short grass; not something that’s helpful when looking at the setup here at TPC Sawgrass.

One and Done Suggestions for the Players

A lot of my early-season strategy centered around using a top-3 name here at TPC Sawgrass.  Now that we’ve arrived, we’ve got (possible) major issues with Scottie and Rory.  Maybe the back is fine and just needed a few days off, hell Scottie was getting an on-course massage here a few years back!  Maybe the best player in the world just had some mild swing issues for a few weeks (while still finishing quite high most of the time).  A lot of maybes, and maybes make me nervous.

If you feel comfy using either of them here, I wish you luck and from a game theory standpoint, their ownership should come in lower than it normally would have, so maybe in a bigger pool with multiple entries, it’s not the worst idea.  That said, I’m veering away and looking for the “best of the rest.”

The Shortlist

Russell Henley
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa