Noonan’s 2026 Wyndham Championship Outright Picks
Ryan Noonan
21 hours ago
2026 Wyndham Championship Outright Picks – The Wyndham Championship is the season’s final regular-season stop, with much on the line for most of this week’s field. While the event lacks most of the Tour’s best, the field for the Wyndham Championship continues to improve each season, as it’s the final opportunity for someone on the outside looking in to punch their ticket to next week’s first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs in Memphis.
The top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings will be part of the playoffs, a shift from 125 just a few seasons ago. Additionally, a limited number of 2027 Tour cards are available, with the top 100 after the fall swing assured of a spot next season. There’s always something to play for, but the stakes are heightened this week in Greensboro.
Donald Ross’s Sedgefield Country Club, a short, positional 7,131-yard par-70 track covered in Champion Bermuda grass, offers players a unique test this week. The course is narrow off the tee, and Ross used the subtleties of rolling Carolina terrain to create sloping fairways and greens that require elite precision from this week’s field. The rough isn’t overly long, but Bermuda rough is a unique challenge because the lies are often unpredictable. With the winning score in the upper-teens and low 20s, finding opportunities to be aggressive is vital, but that’s nearly impossible to do if you’re playing your second shot from the rough or fairway bunkers here.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Sedgefield CC course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
Podcast: Apple | Spotify
YouTube: Betsperts Golf
Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events, but I mostly stayed within that range. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s 2026 Wyndham Championship Outright Picks
Jackson Koivun
Last week’s T31 at the Rocket Classic was a bit of a letdown after his 3M Open win, but I’m going back to the well on Jackson Koivun this week in Greensboro. The Chapel Hill native made a splash here last season, finishing T5 and gaining throughout the bag. Koivun is familiar with Bermuda grass, having played collegiately at Auburn.
Koivun isn’t going to sustain his 1.6 strokes gained putting per round average from the 3M Open week in and week out, but he has the makings of someone who’ll be among the Tour’s best putters based on his pedigree. That makes last week’s abysmal putting performance in Detroit an outlier, and I’m willing to ignore it since the ball-striking numbers were still quite competitive. His total driving marks remained elite, as did his GIR%, particularly from the fairway. These go hand in hand this week. Koivun sits at the top of my Rabbit Hole model this week, and that’s too good to ignore.
Ryan Gerard
I’m sticking with another local product at the top of the card, looking for some Ryan Gerard flop-lag after he was quite popular among the golf outright betting community last week in Detroit. It almost paid off for them, as Gerard backed up his T9 at The Open Championship with a T8 last week at the Rocket Classic.
Gerard is a certified flusher and an excellent putter, a combination that can earn you a lot of strong finishes. Gerard is nearly a full stroke better in 2026 than he was in 2025, and he’s set career-highs in each finishing position, from T-5s to T-40s. His putter was letting him down for much of the spring, but he’s turned a corner of late, gaining strokes on the greens in seven straight starts, four of which were T-10 or better finishes. Gerard is also one of the best Par 4 golfers in the field, and he’s fared quite well in similar setups, where there’s a high penalty for a missed fairway, and the field leans less-than-driver off the tee. He’s fifth in my model this week, and a strong look north of 30/1.
Alex Fitzpatrick
I was a little caught off guard to see Alex Fitzpatrick at No. 2 in my model this week, slightly ahead of prohibitive favorite, defending champ Cameron Young. A few strong recent finishes at TPC River Highlands (T-7) and Muirfield Village (T-6) were very impressive, showing signs that his early spring run is no fluke. Those were Signature Event fields on courses that demand elite ball-striking to contend, and Matt’s young brother continues to deliver.
Alex’s putter has been an issue and has kept him out of the winner’s circle, particularly in the final round at Quail Hollow, but he’s mixed in a few spiked putting rounds, and that’s all we need to contend when the ball-striking numbers look like this. Over the past 36 rounds, Fitzpatrick laps the field with 1.41 strokes gained ball-striking on average (he’s first in tee-to-green as well), gaining in 82.4% of his rounds played.
Jordan Smith
Another Englishman flusher who struggles with his short game is Jordan Smith. It’s ironic that Smith hails from Chippenham because buddy can’t chip to save his life. The good news this week is the GIR% at Sedgefield is around 6% higher than a standard PGA Tour stop, so I’m not counting on Smith to miss many greens.
His putter was also a problem at times this spring, but he’s found it recently, gaining strokes in three of his past four starts. His ball-striking numbers are among the best in the field, and he’s gained over a stroke per round in four straight and five of his past six starts. He gains off the tee through distance and accuracy, which you love to see this week. I picked Smith off at 66/1, which is more than fair given his upside.
Nico Echavarria
There are a few boxes that need to be checked if you’re ever considering betting on Nico Echavarria, and they all get checked this week.
- -Bermuda greens
- -Easy scoring conditions
- -Weaker than average field
That’s it. That’s the recipe. Echavarria has already won for us once this season in this setup, with a miraculous fourth-round finish that coincided with an all-time collapse from Shane Lowry at PGA National back in February. He’s really only popped once since, a T6 at Colonial, another par 70 venue with Bermuda grass everywhere. At 150/1, we shouldn’t expect much, but he’s shown more of a ceiling than most of his peers on the odds board.