Noonan’s 2026 TOUR Championship Outright Betting Picks
Ryan Noonan
20 days ago
2026 TOUR Championship Outright Betting Picks – The 2026 season and FedExCup Playoffs come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club, the annual host of the TOUR Championship. We had a big change in the event’s structure last season, with the much-maligned starting-strokes format eliminated. The 30 golfers in the field now start at even par, with the winner of this week’s event earning the title of FedExCup champion and the $10 million top prize that comes with it.
East Lake saw a significant renovation prior to the 2024 event. Hundreds of trees were removed from the property, every inch of turf was removed and replanted, and all 18 greens were fully redesigned. Players talked about how sightlines had changed drastically from previous years, and Andrew Green, the architect who spearheaded the project, was right when he said, “nothing is the same, not a single golf shot on the property.”
The removal of trees and widening of fairways made the course play a bit easier off the tee, though there’s still a premium on finding the Zoysia grass fairways off the tee. The Bermuda grass rough is long and penal due to its grabby nature and the unpredictable lies it creates for approach shots, and there are reports that they’ll grow it out even more after the field played to a -2.18 scoring average in 2025, the easiest the course has played in its history of hosting Tour events.
The green complexes are firm and fast, and the course has much more contouring and slope than before Green’s work, which affects both putting and approach shots. They also increased the challenge around the green, with more shaved runoffs and collection areas, instead of thick Bermuda grass aprons that previously slowed down wayward approach shots.
Overall, East Lake is a long par-70 track, playing at 7,440 from the tips. Lake is in the name, so we have water hazards on eight holes. As usual, I’m not relying heavily on course history this week, and the recent renovation here makes that more difficult. I also believe they didn’t love how easy the course played last year, so reports have the Bermuda rough being grown out even more, which makes playing from the fairway even more critical than before.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the East Lake course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
Podcast: Apple | Spotify
YouTube: Betsperts Golf
Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events, but I mostly stayed within that range. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5 outrights a season, and we’ve already hit 7. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
It’s a good week to look at the each-way market if it’s available to you. With the finishing-position distribution tighter (30-man field), I think there’s a slight edge this week that’s not fully priced into the market.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s 2026 TOUR Championship Outright Betting Picks
Collin Morikawa
I’m prioritizing accuracy and control off the tee this week, after the field’s driver usage shifted from 85.5% in 2024 to just 75.7% last season. That’s still an above-average rate of driver usage, but the field clearly decided there are a few holes that only provide scoring opportunities if you’re playing off the zoysia fairway and not out of the bermuda rough. Collin Morikawa, who finished fourth last week at Bellerive, another 7,400+ yard par-70, had the ball on a string off the tee, leading the field in distance from the edge of the fairway, gaining an average of 0.67 strokes per round off the tee.
We’ll also have a lot of 200+ yard approach shots this week. Last year, 34% of the approach shots came from 200+ yards out, 10.5% above the Tour average mark of 23.5%. Over the past six months, no one’s given themselves more scoring opportunities inside 15 feet from 200+ yards out than Collin Morikawa. It’s a shame that his 2026 campaign was derailed by the back injury he suffered at The PLAYERS back in March, but capping the season with a win at the TOUR Championship would likely soften that blow.
Tom Kim
A similar handicap to Morikawa, Tom Kim will also give himself plenty of scoring chances because he keeps the ball in play off the tee and his iron play has been immaculate this season. Over the past six months, Tom Kim leads the field in SG: APP, gaining 0.89 strokes per round. He was also just behind Morikawa in distance from the edge of the fairway last week at Bellerive, and that ball-striking combination is exactly the recipe I’m targeting this week.
Tom Kim is also a very streaky putter, but when measured over the past 12 months, he’s only gained strokes on one surface: Bermuda. And not just a little; he’s gained 0.57 strokes per round on the surface he’ll see this week.
