2026 BMW Championship Outright Betting Picks – The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and the top 50 remaining players head to Bellerive Country Club for this year’s BMW Championship. Located just outside of St. Louis, this is Bellerive’s first time hosting an event since the 2018 PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka held off a charging Tiger Woods late on Sunday to win his first of three PGA Championships.

The course took on a lot of rain back in 2018, so it should play quite a bit firmer than the field experienced that week. Also, six holes have been lengthened, with the course now stretched out to 7,448 yards, making it a very long Par-70 layout.

The large green complexes have all been updated as well, though most of that work happened years ago, so I wouldn’t consider these ‘new’ greens in the sense that we should expect them to play firmer than usual.

The 2018 leaderboard shows a premium on distance and ball-striking. I’m also placing a premium on strong lag putting because Bellerive features very large, rolling bentgrass greens. With a lot of long approach shots on deck, players will be left with a lot of long putts, so we want to keep the 3-putts to a minimum.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Bellerive CC course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events, but I mostly stayed within that range. Overall, though, this strategy prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s 2026 BMW Championship Outright Betting Picks

Sam Burns

Sam Burns is out here doing his best Scottie Scheffler impersonation. Every time he tees it up, he finds himself in contention on Sunday, but he’s yet to get over the line. Burns has finished T-4 or better in four of his past six starts, five of them being either playoffs, major championships, or Signature Events. Burns has taken his ball-striking, particularly his approach play, to another level.

Burns played in 20 events between last year’s Travelers Championship and this year’s PGA Championship. In those 20 starts (74 rounds), Burns averaged more than 1 stroke gained per round on approach just once, and that was at this year’s Masters, where he gained 1.11 strokes per round on average and finished T-7.

Burns averaged 0.05 strokes gained on approach over those 74 rounds. Over the past six starts(24 rounds), Burns has gained an average of 1.25 strokes per round on approach. On top of that, he’s played his best golf on longer tracks, and though the putting surface doesn’t matter for Burns, he’s elite everywhere; bentgrass is his best surface over the past 12 and 24 months. I played Burns at 16/1 in the each-way market, and that’s “Without Scheffler”.

Wyndham Clark

There are a lot of similarities between Sam Burns and Wyndham Clark. They both play their best golf on longer courses with difficult scoring conditions. They’ve both contended a lot over the past few months, though Clark has been able to land the plane twice, both at Craig Ranch and Shinnecock Hills.

Outside of the wins, Clark has a lot of other first-page-of-the-leaderboard finishes against strong fields, including a solo third at Muirfield Village, a T-5 at TPC River Highlands, and a T-5 last week at TPC Southwind. Clark’s floor has been a bit lower than Burns’, but that’s reflected on the odds board, with Clark going off at nearly twice the odds of Burns. After back-to-back poor performances from Clark, he got it together again last week in Memphis, gaining throughout the bag, including three very strong ball-striking rounds.

As I did with Burns, I played Wyndham in the each-way market and without Scottie, picking off a 33/1.