Mexico Open – Betting Preview
Ron Klos
2 days ago
After a weather-shortened finish in Bermuda that saw Austin Smotherman win his second straight tournament, the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the Mexico Open. Dating back to 1944, the Mexico Open has quite a historical past and has been considered Mexico’s national championship. Located a few miles off the Pacific coast near the town of Puerto Vallarta, the Vidanta Vallarta Resort (one of the highest-rated hotels in Mexico) and its “Signature Course” designed by Greg Norman will host this event for the fifth time. Holes wind along the banks of the Ameca River and provide scenic views of the Sierra Madre mountains.
Through its first four editions at Vidanta Vallarta (2022–2025), the Mexico Open has gone from star winners to breakthrough winners. Jon Rahm won as a heavy favorite in 2022, edging Tony Finau, Brandon Wu and Kurt Kitayama by a stroke, and a year later Finau got revenge by three over Rahm. Since then, the event has produced first-time winners: Jake Knapp claimed his maiden Tour win in 2024, and Brian Campbell won in 2025 at 20-under in a playoff over Aldrich Potgieter.
Vidanta Vallarta rewards power. The Greg Norman design plays to 7,337 yards this year, roughly 120 yards shorter than in 2025, but it remains a long par-71. Its wide fairways and lack of penal rough still let bombers swing freely with little cost for a miss. Elite iron play, especially from over 200 yards, has been just as important. Rahm and Finau both hit 80 percent of their greens, and Knapp ranked first in the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green, while past winners have rarely needed difficult up-and-downs. As at most oceanside resort courses, a proven record in coastal winds and comfort on the wall-to-wall Paspalum also go a long way. Scoring has been low, ranging from 17-under to Finau’s record of 24-under, and the shorter setup could push it lower still.
The Field
The 2026 VidantaWorld Mexico Open features a 120-player field headlined by Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, Tom Kim and defending champion Brian Campbell. The tournament returns to the fall portion of the PGA Tour schedule, with players competing at Vidanta Vallarta for a $6 million purse and 500 FedExCup points. Clark enters as one of the biggest names in the field following his 2026 U.S. Open victory, while Tony Finau returns to the site of his 2023 win.
The field also includes several established Tour winners, including Max Homa, Lucas Glover, Akshay Bhatia, Nico Echavarria and Nick Dunlap. Homa brings six career Tour victories, while Griffin, Bhatia and Echavarria have each established themselves as multiple winners. Rasmus Hojgaard adds international experience as a member of Europe’s victorious 2025 Ryder Cup team, and Corey Conners, Marco Penge and Harry Hall provide additional depth among the higher-ranked players. Rising prospects Blades Brown, Ryder Cowan and John Daly II also add youth and international interest to the field.
With the FedExCup Fall approaching its final stretch, the Mexico Open offers an important opportunity for players to improve their standings and strengthen their position heading into the 2027 season.
Mexico Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- B. Griffin +2500 (0.95u) – Rivers
- Penge +3000 (0.79u) – DK
- Hall +4000 (0.59u) – Fanatics
- Smith +5000 (0.47u) – Rivers
- Suber +5500 (0.42u) – Rivers
- R. Hojgaard +8000 (0.29u) – Rivers
- Greyserman +8000 (0.29u) – Rivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images