Mayo’s 2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT Picks, Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT Picks

• Field: 72 Players
• Cut: Top 50 & Ties
• First Tee: Thursday, June 4
• Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler

Two former winners at Muirfield Village are taking a pass this week: Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are the only eligible players not in the field. Jake Knapp is expected to make his return from injury as well.

Oh, there’s a cut this week too! Always nice.

SUB TO FREE PME NEWSLETTER TO GET ALL ARTICLES AND CHEATSHEETS EARLY + EXTRA INFO & BREAKING NEWS

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT KEY STATS

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Par 4s 450-500 Yards Gained
• Sand Saves Gained
• Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT COURSE

• Course: Muirfield Village
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,569
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
• Number of Sand Bunkers: 68
• Holes With Water in Play: 13
• Average Fairway Widths: 24 yards

Course

Par 3s (4): Average Distance – 193 yards

-> All four sit in the 184-201 range

• 2025 Scheffler: 2 birdies and 14 pars for the week (8 pars on front-9 Par 3’s)
• The 5 hardest holes on property come on the back-9 (includes both par 3’s on that side)

Par 4s (10): Average Distance – 444 yards

-> 1 under 400 (3 total under 415), 4 of 470+ yards

• 2025 Scheffler: All 5 bogeys for the week came on Par 4’s (4 on the back-9, including a double bogey on #10)
• 3 holes have a +25% bogey rate … they are all back-9 Par 4’s (including 17-18)

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 547 yards

• 2025 Scheffler: Multiple Par 5 birdies in 3 of 4 days (all 3 of his Sunday birdies came on par 5’s)
• The 4 easiest holes (only 5 holes play under par) … 3 of them have an eagle rate north of 1.35%

DFS Streak

This course is built for drama at the end as three of the four toughest holes are the final three, and that makes streaking from back-to-front nearly impossible. Even if you navigate Holes 17-18 (both of which are Par 4’s that measure 480+ yards), #1 isn’t any easier — the bogey rate is eight full percentage points higher than the birdie rate. Playing in order isn’t a walk in the park (#10 is the third most difficult hole), but if you’re trying to break ties, that’s the direction to go.

Surrounding #10 is a shorter Par 4 (417 yards) and a very gettable Par 5, so if you can navigate the one brutal hole, you could be in business, whereas playing in the other direction, you essentially need to run pure for nine straight shots.

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT Past Winners

• 2025: Scottie Scheffler -10
• 2024: Scottie Scheffler -8
• 2023: Viktor Hovland -7
• 2022: Billy Horschel -13
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay -13
• 2020: Jon Rahm -9
• 2019: Patrick Cantlay -19

2025: Scottie Scheffler (+275, heavy favorite) beat Ben Griffin by 4

• The top 3 on the leaderboard were all top-5 for the week in OTT
• Spieth was the only golfer to finish the week under par without ranking inside of the top 25 for the week in APP

2024: Scottie Scheffler (+400, favorite) beat Collin Morikawa by 1

• Finishing places (in order) for the top-4 approach players for the week (1-3-33-2). The bar is high and this was Scheffler’s best approach week of his career (+13!) … he’s picked up 10+ strokes on approach three times in his career — he’s done it in each of his past two trips to Muirfield
• Nine of the top-11 on the final leaderboard gained ground on the field when putting from 5-10 feet

2023: Viktor Hovland (+2000, sixth on the betting board) beat Denny McCarthy in a playoff

• Scottie Scheffler gained 20.8 strokes tee-to-green (8.9 more than anyone else) but managed to bleed 8.5 strokes back with the putter (the second worst of his career, only the 2018 Sanderson Farms was worse: -9.4)
• The top-8 finishers for the week all picked up ground on Par 4’s measuring 400-450.

2022: Billy Horschel (+6000) beat Aaron Wise by 4

• The top-12 consisted only of golfers who gained putting, and the top-17 of golfers who gained on approach (seven of them picked up 5+ strokes with their irons).
• Billy Horschel, Denny McCarthy, and Sahith Theegala all finished inside the top-10 for the week despite losing ground putting from 10-15 AND 15-20 feet for the week.

2021: Patrick Cantlay (+2000) outran COVID

• The top-8 approach players for the week all finished inside the top-20 on the final leaderboard (including Carlos Ortiz who led the field in approach and finished 16th despite losing 1.1 strokes off the tee and another 2.9 on the greens)
• Long irons weren’t needed — seven of the top-10 finishers lost proximity from 200+ yards away

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2025

65 – Ben Griffin (AM, two clear of the field)

2024

66 – Adam Hadwin (his only round better than 72 for the week)

67 – Scottie Scheffler (hung on despite a Sunday 74)

–> Six players shot 68 or better on Thursday, and five of them finished T-8 or better for the week

2023

67 – Davis Riley (not much of an encore: went 78-78 over the next two days)

68 – Matt Wallace (his only round better than 74 for the week)

2022

67 – Six-way tie that didn’t include any golfer who finished top-12 for the week (Cam Young was on that list … he shot an 84 on Sunday and finished in 60th)

68 – Four-way tie that included three golfers who finished T-5 for the week

2021

66 – Collin Morikawa (up-and-down week: 66-72-66-71)

67 – Scottie Scheffler (consistent: 138 strokes on Thursday-Friday, 139 on the weekend), Adam Long (followed it up with a Friday 77)

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT NOTES

In 2024, No. 16 tee was moved 25 yards to the right and a greenside bunker was removed. Last year, new tees were added on No. 16 (220 yards) and No. 17 (503 yards).

At the conclusion of the 2020 Memorial, the greens, fairways and tee boxes were regrassed, and around 100 extra yards were added to the course. The greens weren’t just reconstructed with new bentgrass, irrigation and Precision Air systems, but they were recontoured as well. All greenside bunkers were modified too. Muirfield Village already possessed the most difficult greenside sand traps on TOUR, and the adjustments haven’t changed that difficulty, based on the last three years.

Generating sand saves from the 68 bunkers spread across the grounds is essential. The greenside sand traps at Muirfield Village have annually resulted in the longest proximity lengths of any course in the regular PGA TOUR rotation. Coupled with the tiny and lightning-fast greens, The Memorial sits inside the top five courses with the lowest scrambling percentage (53%). Despite myriad changes, the classic elements of Muirfield remain: High driving accuracy with the wide fairways, low GIR with the smaller-than-average greens.

Muirfield Village had the longest proximity from inside 100 yards from the rough, and the second lowest going for the green rate (Colonial is first) of any course in the regular rotation. This can have a compounding effect: Lay up, but miss the fairway; bring a much bigger number into play. This is why Muirfield has the second-lowest birdie percentage from the rough.

Despite the aforementioned tiny and lightning-fast bentgrass greens, putting really hasn’t been that big of an issue for the field. In fact, they run so pure that generally terrible putters tend to do pretty well. Muirfield Village ranks as the third lowest three-putt rate of any regular PGA TOUR course, and is inside the top five in makes from 5”-15”. In 2021, the field made 89% of its putts inside 10 feet.

When trying to look at common links between the winners, it’s always imperative to remove Tiger Woods from the equation. What help does five-time Memorial winner Tiger give you? Target players like Tiger? OK. I’ve finished my search, and there are none. Now what?

Well, approach widely outweighs driving at Muirfield Village, largely attributed to the THICC fairways. 14 of the past 16 winners have ranked inside the Top 10 of Strokes Gained: Approach for the week. This shouldn’t be breaking news to anyone, as approach is always the most important stat when we review each event after its conclusion, but even for approach, that’s fairly extreme.

At the average PGA TOUR course, approach typically out-gains off the tee at around a 2.5x clip. Among the top five finishers at The Memorial, it’s almost 3.5x. And it makes sense just looking at the course. Missing the green is just going to bring pain with those bunkers and the club-catching rough. There are usually massive fluctuations in SG: Around the Green from top to bottom of the field for a week, but looking at the past 10 years, it’s one of the few courses where SG: ATG actually factors in more than SG: OTT.

The key this week is to tread water on the long par 3s and par 4s and don’t waste opportunities on the par 5s. Obvious? Surely. Six par 4s measure from 450-500 yards, all of which are inside the nine most difficult. Three of four par 3s are inside the six most difficult holes. Three of the four par 3s are at least 200 yards. It’s not required to score on any of these holes; it’s all about refusing to pencil in some hockey sticks on the scorecard. Things can get away from the field pretty quickly with all the weird creeks and bunkers hiding everywhere. Or the wind can get so extreme, you can be like Phil Mickelson in 2020, and simply lay up on No. 16 … a Par 3.

Overall, Americans have won nine of the past 13 years, and The Memorial has produced a playoff six of the past nine years. Justin Rose (2010) was the last winner to miss the cut in his previous appearance at Muirfield Village, while Matsuyama (2014) won in his first attempt.

Previous to the revamp after 2020, despite being a longer Par 72, shorter hitters, who still gain strokes off the tee and smack a crisp long iron, can very much compete. Any place which can boast Matt Kuchar, David Lingmerth, Steve Stricker and Jason Dufner as past champions can attest to this. Since, this has somewhat held as Billy Horschel has claimed victory and Denny McCarthy made it to a playoff.

There’s one addition to last week after doing a deep dive and scanning the leaderboard. PGA National (Honda Classic) is another Nicklaus-adjacent course that features some crossover success. Since PGA National has so much water, one-year success or failure makes it hard to judge because one awful shot can take you out of that tournament. However, players with multiple quality results at PGA National tend to have a decent feel for Muirfield Village. The problem is, very few players in this event play at PGA National anymore.

Then there’s the fairly obvious one: Valhalla. Despite playing easier than expected, Valhalla is a long, bentgrass layout with putting surfaces on the smaller side. Oh, yes. It’s also a Jack design too.

2026 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT PICKS

Justin Thomas — Second in ball striking a week ago to Henley but saw his putter come crashing back to earth. Still, with his improved accuracy and hot irons, I’ll gamble on a putting rebound at this number.

Alex Fitzpatrick — Of the super longshots, AFITZ makes a ton of sense. He’s been competitive in strong field events over the last month and has a great blend of ball striking and short game to mitigate some of the poor putting we’ve seen on TOUR so far