John Deere Classic – Betting Preview
Ron Klos
7 hours ago
The PGA Tour heads to the Midwest this week for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. Originally known as the Quad Cities Open when it debuted in 1971, the tournament found its permanent home at TPC Deere Run in 2000 and has become one of the Tour’s premier birdie-fests. It provides one of the final full-field opportunities of the summer before the schedule shifts overseas and into the heart of the FedExCup race. It has also developed a reputation as a launching pad for future stars, producing 25 first-time PGA Tour winners since its inception while remaining one of the longest-running title sponsorships on the PGA Tour.
Designed by former PGA Tour winner D.A. Weibring on the site of a former Arabian horse farm overlooking the Rock River, TPC Deere Run blends rolling terrain, dramatic elevation changes, hardwood forests, and scenic ravines into one of the most picturesque courses on the schedule. Despite measuring over 7,300 yards, the course is far from a bomber’s paradise. Wide fairways, receptive Bentgrass greens, and numerous wedge approaches create one of the lowest-scoring weeks of the season, with each of the last 16 champions finishing at 18-under par or better.
TPC Deere Run rewards players who manage their way around the course rather than simply overpower it. While all playing styles have found success here, accurate drivers, elite wedge players, and strong putters have enjoyed the greatest long-term success. Past champions such as Brian Campbell, J.T. Poston, Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, and Zach Johnson all fit that mold. The course consistently creates birdie opportunities, but converting those chances is what separates contenders from the rest of the field.
The Field
Unlike the Signature Events and major championships, the John Deere Classic annually features a more balanced field where virtually every player arrives believing he has a realistic chance to win. This year’s 144-player field includes two of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking along with eight players ranked inside the world’s top 50, making it one of the more wide-open tournaments of the season. While the field lacks the star power of recent weeks, it is deeper than many John Deere Classics of the past and includes several players carrying strong recent form.
Ben Griffin, Chris Gotterup, and Keegan Bradley are among the main headliners in the field and are joined by other notables, including J.T. Poston, Keith Mitchell, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Tom Kim, Daniel Berger, Jacob Bridgeman, and Tony Finau. They will be joined by past winners David Thompson, Michael Kim, Lucas Glover, Zach Johnson, Dylan Frittelli, and defending champion Brian Campbell.
One of the more interesting storylines this week is the continued emergence of the PGA Tour’s next generation. Jackson Koivun makes his professional debut after one of the most decorated collegiate careers in recent memory, while Michael Thorbjornsen, Blades Brown, Luke Clanton, and several other young players continue searching for their first PGA Tour victory. TPC Deere Run has long been known as a venue where future stars announce themselves, with Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, and numerous first-time winners using this tournament as a springboard early in their careers.
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Deere Run
*In order of importance
- Birdie or Better% (Easy Scoring)
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- SG: Easy/Very Easy Scoring
- Proximity: 75-150 yds
- Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
- SG: Par 4
- SG: ARG (Difficult to gain ARG)
- SG: Par 5 (550-600 yds)
- Putting %: 5-15 feet
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Midwest
- Course Type: TPC
- Scoring Conditions: Very Easy
- Course Length: Short
- Field Strength: Weak/Very Weak
- Field Size: Full Field
- Greens Surface: Bent
- Green Size: Small
- Rough Surface: Bluegrass
- Rough Length: Long
- Rough Penalty: High
- Gain OTT: Easy/Very Easy
- Gain APP: Easy
- Fairway Accuracy: Easy
- GIR Accuracy: Easy
- Scrambling – Short Grass: Difficult
- Gain Putting: Very Easy
John Deere Classic – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- B. Griffin +1600 (1.5u) – Fanatics
- Bradley +2700 (0.88u) – DK
- Thorbjornsen +4000 (0.60u) – Rivers
- M. Kim +5500 (0.43u) – MGM
- McCarthy +6300 (0.38u) – DK
- Novak +6300 (0.38u) – DK
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images