Golf BettingGenesis Invitational One and Done Picks 2026: Best Strategy to Win Your Pool

Genesis Invitational One and Done Picks 2026: Best Strategy to Win Your Pool

Andy Molitor

3 months ago

When you have someone who’s separated himself from the crowd in terms of talent, it creates an interesting problem.

Whereas getting a 2nd place finish from a one-and-done pick is usually a decent result, if you pick Scottie Scheffler and he ends up as runner-up, it feels like a loss. Obviously, you want to use him at a big money event, but how do you narrow that down?

Maybe avoid the places he hasn’t won yet and try to stake a spot at a track he’s already conquered? That doesn’t help as much as you’d hope, as it basically leaves this week and the new stop at Doral as signature courses he hasn’t won at. I suppose you could cross off The Open, given that the weather sometimes dictates things, but you’re still left with 10 or so options.

I don’t have the answer here, other than the “just use him at Sawgrass since it’s the biggest purse” cop-out.

Maybe it’s more of a case of handicapping the fields rather than him, finding a spot where one or two of his contemporaries are taking the week off during a packed summer schedule. Either way, I’m going to keep listing him as an option every damn time the purse is this big, and hopefully, this is the last time I bring this up.

This week should get a slight bump as well, since the three hosted signature events (here, API, & Memorial) have a cutline and give a bigger chunk of the purse to the winner ($4 million compared to $3.6 million).

Finishing Positions

In an elite field, I not only wanted to look at who’s had consistent high finishes over the past few years, but who’s done it at the big-time events. So, this is a snapshot of only signature events from the past three years, sorted by the top 10 percent. BIG gap after the top guys, but some interesting names, and a gaudy average finish position by Cantlay, considering the decent-sized sample.

one and done

Course History: Comp Courses

Course history has been stickier here than at most courses, with nearly all the winners over the past two decades having played the place a few times before finishing on top. But, there’s also some comp course correlation, with success at the Masters as well as Torrey having some crossover. A look at the last three years’ worth of golf at Riviera, Augusta, and Torrey Pines.

Approach Play

This is a screen from the Rabbit Hole I use quite a bit, but haven’t featured here very much. Rolling form can be sorted by most of the major metrics to get an idea of how a player is trending in a skill set. This chart is SG: Approach, sorted by the last 12 rounds. Morikawa stands out big time. This is how his irons play looked when he was winning big events a few years back.

Par 5 Scoring

Finally, even though it’s a par 71, the scoring holes are the scoring holes, and also lend some correlation to the longer par 4s as well. Some unique names on this one since it’s a bit more granular, but still featuring Scottie and Rory. This is the last 12 months, sorted by BoB% on the par 5s.