FedEx St. Jude Championship – Betting Preview
Ron Klos
a day ago
The top 70 golfers in the FedExCup standings will travel to Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the opening event of the PGA Tour’s season long FedExCup Playoffs. Set in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis, TPC Southwind will host a playoff event for the fifth consecutive year after previously serving as a regular Tour stop for more than three decades.
TPC Southwind is infamous for its “water balls” and has historically rewarded some of the best ball strikers in the world. Recent winners at the course include Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, and two time champion Daniel Berger. Last year’s winner, Justin Rose, also arrived in strong ball striking form, gaining 9.4 strokes ball striking across his two starts leading into the week. The course also tends to favor players with experience and comfort on Bermuda grass, particularly with firm greens and penal rough becoming more difficult to manage in the heat and humidity of the American South.
Rory McIlroy, who owns two top five finishes at TPC Southwind, gave an excellent summation of what it takes to succeed here. “If you do hit it in the rough, it’s going to be hard to control your ball from there. So first thing, you put it in the fairway and put it in play, but I think the biggest thing around here is your approach play. I think there seems to be a lot of approach shots between 140 to 170 yards, so that’s a key distance this week. If you can get your pitching wedge through 7-iron dialed in and get those working really well, I think you’ll always have a good chance around this course.”
The Field
The FedEx St. Jude Championship brings together the top 70 players in the final FedExCup standings for the first of three playoff events. There is no cut this week, but the field will be reduced considerably from here, with only the top 50 in the standings advancing to next week’s BMW Championship before the top 30 move on to the TOUR Championship in Atlanta. With a $20 million purse and 750 FedExCup points going to the winner, there is still plenty at stake, particularly for those entering the week near or outside the top 50.
The field is led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who enters the postseason atop the FedExCup standings after another dominant season. Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Aberg round out the top 10 entering Memphis. Rory McIlroy is also back at TPC Southwind after skipping this event last season, while defending champion Justin Rose returns after defeating J.J. Spaun in a playoff here a year ago.
There was also significant movement at the bottom of the standings during the Wyndham Championship. Michael Brennan entered the week outside the playoff picture before winning at Sedgefield to jump comfortably inside the top 70, while Jackson Koivun held onto the 70th and final position. For those beginning the week outside the top 50, the situation is similar. Four guaranteed rounds at TPC Southwind provide an opportunity to make up ground, but anything short of a strong finish could bring their FedExCup season to an end.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Southwind
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Total Driving – DFEF
- SG: ARG/Scrambling (Bermuda)
- Proximity: 125-200
- SG: Par 4
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive % (Bermuda rough)
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Total (Bermuda rough/greens)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
FedEx Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- Morikawa +2600 (0.92u) – DK
- Matsuyama +3300 (0.71u) – DK
- S.W. Kim +3500 (0.68u) – Fanatics
- Henley +4000 (0.60u) – DK
- Thomas +4500 (0.53u) – Rivers
- Rai +9000 (0.26u) – Rivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images