DP World Tour Championship First-Round Leader History (2026)
Andy Molitor
an hour ago
The DP World Tour Championship first-round leader has not gone on to win alone in any of the last ten editions. From 2016 to 2025, six players held the Thursday lead by themselves in Dubai, and none of them won. The only two winners who led after round one, Nicolai Højgaard in 2023 and Rory McIlroy in 2024, were sharing it.
So if you are betting the 2026 finale at Jumeirah Golf Estates, which starts Thursday, November 12, don’t let a hot Thursday move your outright card too much. The first-round leader market is its own bet, and the history says it plays differently than people expect.
Who led the DP World Tour Championship after round one?
Across the ten DP World Tour Championships played from 2016 to 2025, 15 players held or shared the first-round lead, because four of those years ended Thursday in a tie. The winning first-round score ranged from 63 to 67 and averaged 65.5. Only two of those leaders won the tournament, and both were co-leaders.
The table below shows every DP World Tour Championship first-round leader from 2016 to 2025, where each finished, and where the eventual winner stood after 18 holes. It comes from the Betsperts DP World Tour database, with winners and round-one leads checked against tour and press reports. Final positions are shown as the tour recorded them, and ties are not marked.
| Year | First-round leader(s) | R1 score | Leader’s final position | Winner | Winner after R1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Lee Westwood | 66 | 13th | Matt Fitzpatrick | 7th, 3 back |
| 2017 | Patrick Reed | 65 | 10th | Jon Rahm | 16th, 4 back |
| 2018 | Jordan Smith, Adrian Otaegui | 66 | 12th, 4th | Danny Willett | 3rd, 1 back |
| 2019 | Mike Lorenzo-Vera | 63 | 3rd | Jon Rahm | 3rd, 3 back |
| 2020 | Victor Perez | 67 | 7th | Matt Fitzpatrick | 2nd, 1 back |
| 2021 | Rory McIlroy | 65 | 6th | Collin Morikawa | 5th, 3 back |
| 2022 | Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick | 65 | 2nd, 5th | Jon Rahm | 14th, 5 back |
| 2023 | Julien Guerrier, Nicolai Højgaard, Matthieu Pavon | 67 | 22nd, 1st, 5th | Nicolai Højgaard | Co-leader |
| 2024 | Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy | 67 | 6th, 1st | Rory McIlroy | Co-leader |
| 2025 | Michael Kim | 64 | 24th | Matt Fitzpatrick | 18th, 5 back |
The 2019 edition is the one to remember. Mike Lorenzo-Vera opened with a 63, the lowest first-round lead in this ten-year window, and he was still three clear after 36 holes. He finished third. Jon Rahm, three back after Thursday, won it.
Why the Thursday leader doesn’t win in Dubai
The DP World Tour Championship is the season finale with a small, elite field, so a good Thursday rarely separates anyone. Every winner from 2016 to 2025 was within five shots after round one, and six of the ten were inside the top five. The leader gets caught because the players right behind him are the best in the field.
Look at who was chasing. In 2022, Rahm was 14th and five back after Thursday and won anyway. In 2025, Michael Kim‘s bogey-free 64 led by one, and he finished 24th while Matt Fitzpatrick came from 18th to beat McIlroy in a playoff. A five-shot deficit on day one is nothing on the Earth Course for a player of that class.
The outright read, then: a fast start from a longshot is not a reason to pile on him in the live market. A good start from one of the top names in the Race to Dubai is a different story, because that is exactly who has been winning.
How to bet the first-round leader in Dubai
The best way to bet the DP World Tour Championship first-round leader is to spread small stakes across a few players and accept the dead-heat risk. Four of the last ten Thursdays in Dubai ended in a tie for the lead, including a three-way tie in 2023, and a tie cuts the payout on a first-round leader bet.
If you are new to how that settles, here is how dead heats cut a first-round leader payout. A two-way tie roughly halves your return, and a three-way tie cuts it to about a third.
The other lesson is in the names. Westwood, Reed, Lorenzo-Vera, Perez, Guerrier, and Kim all led on Thursday without being the man to beat on Sunday. The first-round leader market rewards players who can go low for one day, which is why it pays to look past the top of the outright board. If you want to build a one-round model around birdie making and scoring on the par 5s rather than total strokes gained, here is how the Rabbit Hole model builder works.
We have not verified a first-round leader price for Dubai yet, so this page will not quote one until a book we trust posts the market.
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Frequently asked questions
When does the 2026 DP World Tour Championship start?
The 2026 DP World Tour Championship starts Thursday, November 12 and ends Sunday, November 15, on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai. It is the final event of the DP World Tour season and decides the Race to Dubai.
Who has won the DP World Tour Championship the most?
Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Matt Fitzpatrick each have three DP World Tour Championship wins. Fitzpatrick’s third came in 2025, when he beat McIlroy in a playoff after both finished at 18 under.
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