Golf BettingCJ CUP Byron Nelson – Betting Preview

CJ CUP Byron Nelson – Betting Preview

Ron Klos

4 days ago

After last week’s second major championship of the year, the PGA TOUR heads back to Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Located within the community of Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the sixth consecutive year. The event dates back to 1944 and has moved all over the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in recent years, with both Trinity Forest and the TPC Four Seasons Resort courses also hosting.

Featuring easy scoring conditions, few hazards, wide-open fairways, and large receptive greens, Craig Ranch is a prototypical TPC course. With an average winning score of 25-under par, it is a birdie-maker’s paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, approach play from 200+ yards will be a key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.

The course is expected to play somewhat more challenging this year after undergoing an offseason renovation led by course designer and former pro Lanny Wadkins. The overhaul included new grass turf, tighter fairways, the movement of bunkers, additional water features, native grasses and waste areas and revamped holes. Wadkins, who won the Byron Nelson in 1973, said he aimed to make the course more difficult for PGA Tour players while still keeping it enjoyable for club members. He hopes the redesign will lower winning scores closer to 12- to 15-under par. Last year, Scottie Scheffler steamrolled the field, winning at 31-under par.

The Field

CJ Cup <a href=

Traditionally, the Byron Nelson has had a relatively weak strength of field. That continues to be amplified this year with the tournament being in the midst of a six-week stretch that includes two “Signature” events and two majors.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will defend without many of his top-ranked peers around to challenge. Fellow Dallas resident Si Woo Kim, ranked No. 22, is the next highest-ranked player. Other notables include Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Wyndham Clark.

Also in the 147-player field are past champions Taylor Pendrith, K.H. Lee, Aaron Wise, and Billy Horschel.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Craig Ranch

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Birdie or Better %
Proximity 200+
SG: Putting (Bent)
SG: Par 4
SG: Par 5
Driving Distance
SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
SG: Weak Field Events
SG: Long Courses

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Region: Texas
Scoring Conditions: Very Easy
Course Length: Long
Field Strength: Weak
Greens Surface: Bentgrass
OTT Club: Driver Heavy
Missed Fwy Penalty: Low
Gain OTT/APP/ARG/PUTT: Very Easy

CJ CUP Byron Nelson – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NZ-ae050uCA_Egj6Vk0fNmauocl4DNo6W5cfp8mCM9M/edit?gid=1098538257#gid=1098538257