John Daigle
4 years ago
Our BetSperts Golf staff has combed through the projections and available lines to identify our favorite bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge. These are our Best Bets for the weekend.
Ryan Noonan: Read Ron’s player quotes article to hear how much Kevin Na likes this course, and it’s easy to back him on that alone. 2019’s winner has finished inside the top 20 in half of his career starts at this event and comes into the week in terrific form. We know he’s an excellent putter, particularly on bentgrass like he’ll see this week, but his iron play has been at the heart of his recent success. He’s gained strokes on approach in eight of his past nine measured events, and his 0.78 SG: APP per round is his best rate since 2016 and is up 0.67 strokes over his 2021 output. His outright number has shrunk since I posted it in our Discord on Monday morning, but a finishing position bet is strongly advised.
Ron Klos: Hovland has the best approach game in the field over the last 36 rounds. He’s second in my Course Comps sub-model which means he has played well on courses similar to Colonial. Thanks to his precise ball-striking, he plays very well on these tighter courses. Related to his largest deficiency, has actually gained strokes around the green in three of his last six including at last week’s PGA Championship. And that being said, around the green play is mitigated at this course anyways.
Geoff Feinberg: I never bet Palmer to win and that’s a position that’s never really backfired at all but I love betting Palmer props in Texas because their isn’t a course on PGAs Texas circuit he doesn’t enjoy playing on. I think you can attack a variety of Palmer placing markets this week, but I’m taking the lay up and suggesting T40 +120.
John Daigle: Jordan Spieth (73.5%) and Justin Thomas (71.4%) are renowned for having avoided bogey or worse on a high margin of holes in which their approach shots missed the green over the past six weeks. Even so, it’s Hoge who is quietly overshadowed with a 70.2% rate in that metric, additionally ranking top-15 in Strokes Gained both on approach (+1.27) and around the green (+0.63) in the past 30 days. I’m expecting Hoge not only to safely net this wager but compete into Sunday.
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Featured Image Credit: Joe Wieczorek/The Golf Wire