Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

Although not as exciting and as loaded a field as last week, The Charles Schwab Challenge still should make for some interesting golf and will always provide us with an opportunity to make some money. 

If you want to lower your exposure a little bit, given last week or bigger events coming up, I have no problem with that. Or maybe you tailed Ryan Noonan’s outright picks and won a lot of money and you want to bet all of it this week! 

We head just a few hours away to Fort Worth, TX for the longest standing event on the PGA Tour. The Charles Schwab Challenge, under many iterations, was established in 1946. And while this isn’t a major it won’t be a cake walk either. Not only do we have an interesting and difficult golf course, the field in 2022 is pretty good. Headlining the field is Scottie Scheffler, 2022 PGA Champion Justin Thomas, local hero Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa.

There are many defenses to Colonial Country Club, but length isn’t one of them. It plays at just over 7,200 yards and is a Par 70. That’s not an overwhelming scorecard yardage. However, it has yielded a winning score in the mid to low teens over the past few years. Don’t expect another birdie fest like the last time the PGA Tour visited a Texas golf course.

Lets get into my favorite bets and plays for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. 

Outright: Davis Riley +5000 (DraftKings)

If you want to talk about a trending ballstriker, look no further than this PGA Tour Rookie Davis Reily. He has finished of 5th, 8th and 13th in his last three starts on tour. These were all on different types of golf courses. The Mexico Open was a bombers paradise, the AT&T Byron Nelson was a birdie fest, and the PGA Championship was a difficult major test. This is evidence that his ball striking is traveling well to any type of set up and event. 

Not that long ago, Riley lost in a playoff to Sam Burns at the Valspar. He is looking to be just the second rookie to claim a PGA Tour victory this season. Over the past 24 rounds, Riley has risen from 48th in Ball-Striking to 3rd in that metric. Davis gained 6.4 strokes on approach and 5 strokes off the tee at the difficult PGA Championship. I believe this is one of the best spots for Davis to pick up his first PGA Tour win and I believe that 50/1 is a fair price on this Alabama alumni. 

Top 10:  Sungjae Im +330 (Ceasars) 

This is a pure number play for a two-time winner on tour. Sungjae should not be +330 to finish top 10 in an event because his skill level just does not line up with that number. After an uncharacteristic lull in the middle of the season, Im has found some form. After a first round lead and top 10 finish at The Masters, he backed it up with a stellar ball-striking performance at the RBC Heritage. That week, he gained 9.8 strokes in that metric.

Sungjae Im got Covid-19 in South Koera a few weeks ago causing him to miss the PGA Championship, but he has shown that he can excel after long breaks. Sungjae finished top 10 at the Tournament of Champions to start the season after a few weeks off. I think these recent developments are why his number is so low, but it is a risk I am wiling to take. 

Top 20: Sebastian Munoz +230 (Ceasars)

This is a no-brainer bet for me. Coming off a first-round lead and top 5 finish at the Bryon Nelson in a similar area of Texas, Munoz is bound to go low again. This University of North Texas alumni seems to shine in this area of the country. Sebastian backed up his strong showing with a made cut at the PGA Championship last week. 

Sebastian was about to gain 3.2 strokes on approach but it was just his putting that let him down. This is a golfer that has gained strokes from tee to green in his last 8 starts on tour. That is truly an impressive feat that is evident of a trending ballstriker. I think his price for a Top 20 is off and should be taken advantage of in the betting markets this week. 

Top 40: Denny McCarthy +155 (FanDuel) 

Denny can top 40 this week at Colonial because he’s a tremendous putter. That’s a dangerous statement to make because putting is so volatile. That’s probably the reason why he’s currently on an epic-made cut streak. Denny McCarthy hasn’t missed a cut in an individual stroke play event since the WM Phoenix Open in February. And before that, his last missed cut came in October 2021. 

Those stats are exactly the type of things to be looking out for in a top 40 bet. Someone that can make the cut and have a decent round over the weekend. I believe that Denny has a safer floor than most golfers that are in his price range. He’s had some good finishes too. He has two Top 25 finishes in his last 5 starts. And he’s had another six Top 20 finishes this year on the PGA Tour.

Matchup: Jordan Spieth over Collin Morikawa -110 (DraftKings) 

Last week we cashed a matchup being high on Collin so this week we fade. This bet is simply getting exposure to Jordan Spieth’s epic course history at Colonial. Jordan has seven top 10s in nine appearances at this venue. That is one of the best collective results for anyone at any course. He won this event in 2016 and has three runner up finishes on other occurrences. 

Jordan has been struggling a bit with the putter but that his not the case here. He has gained over 7.5 strokes putting in his last three appearances on these greens. It is hard to imagine him being outside of the top 15 with these results and how he is hitting the ball. 

Morikawa has certainly had an underwhelming season in regard to recent years. He just gained 3.8 strokes tee to green last week, and just hasnt been the elite talent we have seen in the past. This is an easy play for me.

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