Byron Nelson Round Three Betting Card
Andy Molitor
4 years ago
The course is getting schellacked and the leaderboard is showing it. Three men at tied atop it at -15 after just 36 holes with about a dozen more within a few shots of them. -30 is in play unless the winds kick up and it’s been tricky to differentiate golfers here since even the guys playing “poorly” are shooting 68s.
Once we get this deep into the tournament I like to look at how golfers are playing compared to their baseline and also how I predicted they would before things got underway. If you look at the top of the leaderboard at most places, you’ll find a couple fistfulls of guys who are overperforming with their putting, and there’s not a ton you can do with that. I like to hunt down some golfers who have been WORSE with their putting and around the green stats and dig in to see if it’s something about the course/tournament or if they are just getting hit with some short term variance/bad luck.
Some guys who are underperforming where I have them in Putting and ARG:
- Alexander Noren: basically breaking even on the dance floor for a guy who gains over half a stroke per round putting
- Mito Pereira: a golfer who should be roughly “putting-neutral” who is losing 0.75 per round here
- James Hahn: that bag of chips still has him rattled, he’s lost more strokes putting to the field than anyone else who made the cut
Just some food for thought on how to start looking at guys who you were maybe low on that find their way to the weekend.
Weather doesn’t appear to be making any drastic changes, so we’ll be just looking at more of the same, which is to say the opposite of “carnage”. Anyway, you stayed up late or woke up early to see this, so here’s everything I just bet for round three and keeping in line with this year’s Byron Nelson, it’s plenty.
| Mito Pereira > Seamus Power | -124 |
| Matthias Schwab > Peter Malnati | -115 |
| Carlos Ortiz > Matt Kuchar | -108 |
| Aaron Rai -0.5 > Brice Garnett | -111 |
| Tom Hoge > Jason Day | +107 |
| Sepp Straka -0.5 > Branden Grace | -104 |
| Jason Kokrak > K.H. Lee | -120 |
| Scott Stallings > Peter Malnati | -130 |
| Aaron Wise > Dylan Frittelli | -125 |
Be sure to get in the Members-Only Discord to make sure you catch any live outrights and round 4 bets tomorrow, and get some sleep, we have a major on-deck.
Image Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports