BMW Open Consensus Rankings
Andy Molitor
3 hours ago
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship | Model Accuracy Report
Mean absolute error across the 69-man playoff field · betspertsgolf.com
Andy Molitor
19.20
Median: 15.5
Most accurate overall
Ryan Noonan
19.52
Median: 16.0
2nd overall
Ron Klos
19.75
Median: 16.0
Pat Mayo
20.36
Median: 16.5
Top 20 finishers only — who called the contenders best?
| Ranker | MAE | Median |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Noonan | 16.89 ✓ | 9.5 |
| Ron Klos | 17.17 | 10.0 |
| Andy Molitor | 18.28 | 14.0 |
| Pat Mayo | 20.44 | 16.0 |
Best individual calls (top 30, error ≤ 5)
RonScottie Scheffler
Ranked 1 → Won
Ranked 1 → Won
RonSam Burns
Ranked 4 → T3
Ranked 4 → T3
AndyXander Schauffele
Ranked 9 → T7
Ranked 9 → T7
MayoMatt Fitzpatrick
Ranked 15 → T12
Ranked 15 → T12
RonTommy Fleetwood
Ranked 10 → T7
Ranked 10 → T7
AndyViktor Hovland
Ranked 20 → T19
Ranked 20 → T19
AndyJake Knapp
Ranked 12 → T7
Ranked 12 → T7
AndyKurt Kitayama
Ranked 11 → T12
Ranked 11 → T12
Shared misses (top 20, all rankers off 25+)
Alex Noren — finished T3
Nobody had him inside the top 41
Ron: 43rd · Noonan: 41st · Andy: 48th · Mayo: 62nd
Sungjae Im — finished T5
Nobody had him inside the top 46
Ron: 46th · Noonan: 54th · Andy: 67th · Mayo: 50th
Nico Echavarria — finished T12
Closest call was still 36 spots off
Ron: 51st · Noonan: 53rd · Andy: 64th · Mayo: 63rd
betspertsgolf.com · 69-man playoff field, no cut · Scheffler won by 8 · MacIntyre WD placed last · Tied finishes averaged
A tight, accurate week, the tightest in a while. All four models landed between 19.20 and 20.36 overall, a big improvement over the 40s we saw at the Scottish and Open. Andy takes it overall at 19.20; Noonan wins the top 20 at 16.89.
Why so accurate: everyone had Scheffler #1, and he won by 8, and the models were sharp on the whole top tier: Sam Burns, Fleetwood, Aberg, Tom Kim, and Cantlay all landed close across the board. The three misses that stung were Alex Noren (T3, nobody inside 41st), Sungjae Im (T5, nobody inside 46th), and Nico Echavarria (T12), all guys who ran hot from way down the board.
One note on the flip side: Cameron Young was consensus top-12 for everyone and finished T39, and Collin Morikawa was top-7 for three rankers but finished T52; those dragged the overall numbers up but didn’t hit the top-20-finishers filter since they finished outside it.