BMW Championship – Betting Preview
Ron Klos
a month ago
Bellerive Country Club returns to the PGA TOUR schedule to host the 50 players still alive in the FedExCup Playoffs for the 2026 BMW Championship. Located in the western suburbs of St. Louis, Missouri, Bellerive is a classic Robert Trent Jones Sr. parkland design that opened at its current location in 1960. The course immediately established itself as a championship venue, hosting the 1965 U.S. Open only five years after opening, followed by the 1992 PGA Championship, 2008 BMW Championship and the 2018 PGA Championship.
Bellerive’s strongest characteristics are its scale and the way the terrain influences play. The course has spacious fairways, but many are sloped toward bunkers or rough, while the large greens are divided by significant ridges and tiers that can turn a seemingly good approach into a difficult two-putt. Water comes into play on eight holes, most notably the lake created along the second, while the creek that winds through the property becomes increasingly important late in the round. The stretch from the 14th through the 17th, known as “The Ridge,” rises above much of the surrounding property and has long been regarded as the defining sequence of the course.
It’s a very straightforward course with little strategic complexity from hole to hole. There is almost no disguise, no blind shots and few alternative ways to attack a hole. The challenge is simply executing the shot the course demands, then doing it again and again.
The 2018 PGA Championship was played over a soft, rain affected course, and the combination of receptive greens and fairways produced some of the lowest scoring in PGA Championship history with bombers and elite long-iron players flooding the leaderboard. Gary Woodland shot 64 in the opening round and 63 in the second, while Brooks Koepka followed a 69 with his own 63 before eventually winning at 16 under par. Tiger Woods finished two shots behind after closing with a 64.
Bellerive is scheduled to play as a 7,448 yard par 70, making it one of the longer courses the PGA TOUR players will see during the season. In 2019, six holes were lengthened and the greens were completely rebuilt. The hope is that it will play firmer and faster than in 2018. The course’s length, sloping fairways, large but heavily contoured greens and demanding closing stretch should place a greater premium on ball striking than the 2018 results might suggest. With no cut again this week, the top 30 in the standings at the conclusion of Sunday’s round will move on to the TOUR Championship next week in Atlanta.
The Field
The BMW Championship is a no cut playoff event that features the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings, making this one of the smallest and strongest fields on the PGA TOUR. Scottie Scheffler enters Bellerive at No. 1 after winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship, followed by Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim and Wyndham Clark. The top 10 is rounded out by Sam Burns, Chris Gotterup, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg, with numerous other major championship contenders also in the field.
During the opening playoff event at TPC Southwind, Sungjae Im was the only player to move into the top 50, climbing from 53rd to 40th after finishing fifth. Matt McCarty held the final qualifying position at No. 50, while Keith Mitchell fell from 49th to 51st. The bigger objective is what comes next: the top 30 in the FedExCup standings after Bellerive advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake, meaning the BMW Championship will determine which 20 players see their seasons end one week before the final event.
Most Important Stats For Success at Bellerive CC
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- SG: Approach
- Driving Distance
- Proximity 150-200, 200+
- SG: Par 4
- 3-Putt %
- Birdie or Better % (Long Courses)
- SG: Comp Courses
- Bogey Avoidance (Long Courses)
- SG: ARG/Proximity from Sand
- SG: Putting (Bent/Poa Triv)
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Midwest
- Scoring Conditions: Average/Difficult
- Course Length: Long
- Field Strength: Strong
- Par: 70
- Event Type: FedEx Cup Playoffs
- Event Season: Summer
- Field Size: Small Field
- Water Danger: High
- Greens Surface: Bent
- Green Size: Large
- Fairway Surface: Zoysia
- Rough Surface: Fescue
- Rough Length: Long
- Architect: Robert Trent Jones
- OTT Club: Driver Heavy
- Missed Fwy Penalty: High
BMW Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
- Gotterup +3000 (0.79u) – Rivers
- Hovland +3300 (0.71u) – Rivers
- Clark +3300 (0.71u) – DK
- Kitayama +5500 (0.42u) – Rivers
- Thorbjornsen +6000 (0.39u) – Rivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images