AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets

After a cold and wet week at TPC Potomac, we are headed down to the lone star state for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Some of the best golfers in the world are teeing it up this week in preparation for the second major of the season at Southern Hills. 

This event is held in Northeast Dallas just a quick four hour drive away from Tulsa, making it a easy spot for some elite talent to tune-up. We have the Texas native and world number one Scottie Scheffler teeing it up, along with other elites such as Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, and Will Zalatoris. 

This event will be played at TPC Craig Ranch. This course made its PGA Tour debut last year where we say K.H. Lee won at 25 under. Any time a winning score gets to that number, the event will get the title “birdie fest”. I do not however think it will get to that number again. It has been pointed out that Dallas got historical rain that week and the course was really wet. 

It is not going to be half as wet, so I think we can see -18 win this event this year. There is also some wind in the forecast. I am looking for golfers that are good mid to long iron players, have putted well on bent, can make a lot of birdies are need a win on the PGA Tour. 

Outright: Will Zalatoris +2200 (FanDuel)

I am writing up and golfer with zero PGA Tour wins as my most confident outright this week. Willy Z is simply too talented of a golfer to have not lifted a trophy yet and that will all change this week. 

This Dallas area resident should feel right at home this week and there would be no better spot for his first win than at this event. With an event due for low scoring, some might write off Zalatoris this week. The prevailing narrative will be that he cannot make enough putts to win this event. I wholeheartedly disagree. Zalatoris ranks 1st in this field in ball-striking over the past 50 rounds. The club that has been holding him back has actually been improving recently.

Zalatoris gained strokes putting at The Masters on similar bent grass greens. Although there is no strokes gained data, he putted very well at The Match Play and team events. At this event last year Will ranked first in this field in SG: Approach. This checks out as a large plurality of approach shots come from over 200 yards. A stat that he ranks first in over the past 50 rounds. 

Willy Z will prove the doubters wrong, putt great this week and win the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. 

Top 10: Justin Thomas +150  (FanDuel)

I would argue there is no elite talent in the world that needs a win more than Justin Thomas. Winless since the 2021 Players Championship, Justin Thomas cannot seem to put four rounds together. However, I think JT is an extremely safe play to finish in the top 10. This is not a crazy statement considering he has finished inside the top 10 in 5 out of 8 starts since the beginning of the season. 

Over the past 50 rounds, Thomas ranks 1st in SG: Approach, 1st in T2G, and 2nd in Ball-Striking. This is the recipe for someone will an extremely low floor. JT has also proven he can win and contend in lower-scoring events as multiple of his wins have come at -20 or lower. This is short odds but should be a slam dunk play.

Top 20: Sam Burns +115 (FanDuel)

This is really just a silly line. Sam Burns very well could win this event, so finishing in the top 20 should be literally no sweat at all. Again these two plays are not super high odds, but I think they are locks that I will have a lot of money on. 

Sam Burns finished runner-up at this event last year and is in some great form. Win at the Valspar, and runner up at the team event. Burns ranks 4th in birdies or better gained over the past 50 rounds, is an elite tee to green player and can roll in a bunch of putts. 

Top 40: Maverik McNealy +105 (FanDuel)

Another line that is highly exploitable on Fanduel this week. Maverick McNealy is playing some consistent and great golf right now. Finishing in the top 40 should be no struggle at all for this Stanford graduate. 

Maverick has not missed a cut playing the PGA Tour since October 2021. He has finished top 40 in 10 out of 12 of those starts. I see no reason as to why this trend will not continue for Maverick. McNealy is a strong long iron player, a great par 5 scorer, and is consistent enough to make a cut at this event.

Matchup: Aaron Wise over Alex Noren +102 (FanDuel)

Just like with Keegan last week, Wise is someone that I wanted to bet outright but couldn’t get there on the number. So I am going to target him in a matchup over Alex Noren. Off a top 10 finish in Mexico, I like where Wise’s game is at. Winner of this event in 2018, Wise gained a staggering 7.8 strokes on approach in Mexico. 

He has made the cut in two straight starts and is finally showing the form we all excepted earlier. He has won in Texas before, and played well on courses where you can get be a little less inaccurate off the tee so I think it is a perfect fit. 

I think that Noren peaked after this performance at the Valspar. Noren was consistently gaining on approach but that has changed over his past two starts. Two players moving in the opposite direction is an easy play for me this wee. 

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.

Featured Image: Chris Greythan – Getty Images