American Express One and Done Strategy: One Golfer for Three Courses
Andy Molitor
4 months ago
Not a terrible start to the year, with a couple of my names threatening the lead, including Harry Hall as the clubhouse leader for a bit on Saturday. Still, I was no where NEAR Gotterup. Apparently, he’s just the kind of golfer who can show up and win anywhere now?
Anyway, this week is another of the “normal-sized” purses with $9.2 million to divvy up, and the winner taking home $1.58 million.
Cutmakers
Starting out with the placement screen from the Rabbit Hole to see who’s finding the top of the leaderboard the most. This chart is folks with at least 10 starts of the past year, sorted by the top 10 %. Justin Rose is a strange case here, making only half the cuts but finishing in the top 10, 29% of the time!
West Coast Golf
Sometimes I just want to look at form, and later on in the season, I certainly will. But with so many golfers taking extended breaks in the fall, it’s hard to consider much data like that useful until maybe March. Instead, I’ve sorted out some data by region, seeing how the field has played on mostly similar courses on the West Coast. This displays the last two years on courses in the “West”, so this isn’t just the early season California swing, this will also include other events contested out west like the Shriners and Procore.
Short Course Success
Comp courses can be a bit tough when dealing with unique agronomy (West Coast Poa), but length is length, and this week, there isn’t any. These courses are all quite short and I figured it was sorth looking into how the field has played when that was the case. Surprise. Scottie is still in the lead. Again, two years worth of data with a minimum round threshold set, this time on only courses categorized as short or very short.
Par 5 Scoring
Finally just checking in on who’s the best at scoring on the par 5s. With some incredibly easy ones here (across all three courses), anyone looking to get low is going to have to find ways to score early and often on the par 5s. This can be just length OTT or really dialed in long irons, either way, the winners and high placers here will be scoring in gobs on those holes.
American Express One and Done Suggestions
I think with the smaller purse, you need to avoid using Mr. Scheffler this early. Yeah, he may win, but nailing the timing on him seems big for winning one of these contests. Find a mid-range guy you love here, and fire away.