2026 3M Open Weather Forecast: Daily Wind, Rain, and Betting Outlook

The 2026 3M Open weather is a tale of two weekends. Thursday and Friday at TPC Twin Cities stay warm, dry, and nearly windless, the soft setup that turns this course into a birdie-fest. Then a heat wave rolls in. Saturday climbs toward 100 degrees, and Sunday pushes into the low 100s, so the finish comes down to who can survive the heat rather than who can handle the wind.

The models agree on the front half almost completely: barely a breeze, no rain, and scoring that should run wild. They also line up on the weekend heat, and if anything, it has trended hotter this week than it looked on Monday. The new wrinkle is Sunday, where a genuine afternoon storm chance has crept into the forecast for the closing groups. Outside of a gusty Saturday morning, wind never really becomes the factor here.

Thursday: Round 1 Weather

Round 1 hands the field the calmest, driest air of the week. The southwest breeze barely reaches double digits, rain sits at 3 percent, and morning starters get cool upper 50s and 60s before the afternoon settles into the low-to-mid 80s. On a course that already gives up birdies, this is about as gettable as it gets. Expect a shootout.

Friday: Round 2 Weather

Friday plays a lot like Thursday until the wind wakes up. The morning wave gets the same bright, soft conditions, but the SSW breeze climbs into the low-to-mid teens after lunch and gusts near 25 for the late groups. It is a nuisance rather than a defense, so the cut line should still land comfortably under par, and low scoring stays the theme.

Saturday: Round 3 Weather

Moving day is where the week turns, and the story is heat, not wind. Highs push toward 100 with a feels-like reading well into the triple digits by mid-afternoon, and a gusty SW breeze gives the early groups the week’s stiffest morning. Rain stays low at around 10 percent. Nobody is getting bailed out, and this becomes a stamina test as much as a scoring one.

Sunday: Final Round Weather

The final round is the hottest of the tournament, with highs into the low 100s and a feels-like that sits there all afternoon. The wind stays light early before an SSW breeze freshens to gusts near 25 late, but the real curveball is a rising storm chance, up near 37 percent for the closing groups. A long, hot day plus a possible late delay puts a premium on energy management down the stretch.

Betting and DFS Outlook

TPC Twin Cities gives up birdies in normal conditions, and a calm, dry front half only pours gas on it. The winning number should be low. Look for a board that rewards aggressive, birdie-heavy players over grinders. Wind is a non-factor outside the Saturday morning window, and even that is playable, so the weather is not protecting par for anybody this week.

Keep an eye on the Sunday storm risk, since a delay would reshuffle the run-in. The morning-versus-afternoon wave split is a comfort story, not a scoring one, so it hands nobody a real edge. Pull the strokes gained numbers, weight birdie-or-better and par-5 scoring, factor in who holds up when it gets hot, and build your own read rather than waiting on wind that is not coming.

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Meta description: 2026 3M Open weather forecast: warm and calm Thursday and Friday at TPC Twin Cities, then dangerous heat near 100 and a Sunday storm risk for the finish.