Golf Betting3M Open – Betting Preview

3M Open – Betting Preview

Ron Klos

8 hours ago

The PGA TOUR heads back stateside for the inevitable post major letdown and the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Designed by the legendary Arnold Palmer, the course was built on a 235 acre former sod farm in the Minneapolis suburb of Blaine, Minnesota.

After two straight weeks on links style courses, the schedule returns to the familiar look of parkland golf. TPC Twin Cities, however, is anything but a traditional parkland layout. With 27 different bodies of water scattered across the property and homes lining much of the course, it has more of a Florida feel than one would expect in the upper Midwest.

TPC Twin Cities consistently ranks among the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR for making birdies, but it also produces one of the highest double bogey or worse rates. Water hazards lurk throughout the property, thick rough punishes errant shots, and several risk reward holes create constant opportunities for both birdies and big numbers. That volatility carries through to a demanding closing stretch where no lead feels secure on Sunday.

As the tenth longest course on TOUR, with water in play on tee shots across nine holes, TPC Twin Cities places a premium on both distance and accuracy. Golfers who excel in Total Driving have consistently thrived here, as evidenced by past champions Kurt Kitayama, Jhonattan Vegas, Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, and Matt Wolff, all of whom are among the stronger drivers on TOUR. Pair that with the importance of precise iron play, and TPC Twin Cities becomes one of the most ball striking dependent venues on the schedule. A remarkable 59% of total strokes gained comes from off the tee and approach play, underscoring just how important those two areas are to success.

2020 champion Michael Thompson summed up the mental challenge of TPC Twin Cities perfectly. “It is very much like PGA National. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, and execute. If you’re not confident over the ball, you’re more likely to make a poor swing, which is going to result in a penalty. So you have to be really diligent with your visualizations, your commitment to each shot, pick your target, and trust it.”

The Field

Following the season’s final major championship, the PGA TOUR returns to Minnesota for one of the final three opportunities to secure FedExCup points before the Playoffs begin. With only the 3M Open, Rocket Classic, and Wyndham Championship remaining, the pressure is immense for players on the playoff bubble, those fighting to keep full PGA TOUR status, and others chasing enough points to qualify for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. That sense of urgency has consistently made the 3M Open one of the most aggressive tournaments on the schedule, with players willing to take on risk in pursuit of birdies and a career changing finish.

The tournament once again features a standard 144 player field competing for an $8.8 million purse, 500 FedExCup points to the winner, and a two year PGA TOUR exemption. The top 65 players and ties after 36 holes will advance to the weekend. While the event follows The Open Championship and naturally loses many of the world’s elite players, the 2026 edition is stronger than usual, highlighted by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler making his tournament debut. Defending champion Kurt Kitayama also returns alongside a field featuring 53 of the top 125 players in the Official World Golf Ranking representing 21 different countries.

As always, the field is a blend of established PGA TOUR winners, rising young stars, veterans trying to extend their careers, and players simply hoping to earn enough FedExCup points to keep their cards. With the regular season winding down, every finish carries significant consequences. Those already inside the top 70 are looking to improve their playoff position, while those outside the number have little choice but to chase high finishes over the final three weeks. That urgency often produces one of the most volatile leaderboards of the year and creates opportunities for lesser known players to break through.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Twin Cities

*In order of importance

Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
SG: Approach
SG: Ball Striking (high water danger)
Bogey/Double-Bogey Avoidance
Good Drive %
Proximity 175+
Birdie or Better %
SG: Par 4
Total Driving
Putting 5-15 feet

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Midwest
Scoring Conditions: Easy/Average
Field Strength: Weak
Field Size: Full Field
Event Season: Summer
Water Danger: High
Greens Surface: Bent
Rough Length: Long
Rough Surface: Bluegrass
Architect: Arnold Palmer
OTT Club Type: Mixed
Gain Approach: Easy
Gain ARG: Easy
GIR Accuracy: Easy
Gain Putting: Very Easy

3M Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cjAWT-DNhiEzNZ1yJ2Reek6o7WzdvwW7O6sEqFdPf5s/edit?gid=1886433550#gid=1886433550