Pat Mayo
3 hours ago
NOTE: Average fairway widths are 60 yards.
BOMBS
FIRST ROUND LEADER
DP WORLD TOUR Q-SCHOOL
Mayo and Keith Stewart from readtheline.com to break down everything you need to know for the PGA Tour’s WWT Championship at El Cardonal. They dive deep into the course layout, why driving distance takes a backseat to approach acumen and wedge play on those wide fairways, and why past form on tracks like PGA National correlates heavily this week. Plus, Pat and Keith discuss the alarming lack of top players locking in their exemption status, review last week’s results with Andrew Novak and the “PME Bump,” and give out their favorite outright bets, dark horses, and model targets for the week!


El Cardonal is an easy resort course with some of the widest fairways you’ll ever encounter. You’d think at 7,452 it would simply lean bombers, yet that isn’t what we’ve seen in the three years the PGA has played at the Tiger Woods design. Could that be because the world’s best players don’t participate in this event? I mean, yes. That’s almost certainly the case.
It’s not to say bombers can’t win. EVR is pretty long and erratic with the smoke wagon and he got a win at -27 here two years ago. It’s just, after scanning the leaderboards, distance isn’t a requirement in Cabo to contend like you’d expect from the scorecard. Frankly, the handicapping for WWT and next week in Bermuda are pretty similar: Wedges and Putting. This, despite the courses playing completely different. Yet, this is what we’ve seen each of the past three years.
Additionally, there’s a bizarre crossover in success between El Cardonal and PGA National I can’t really explain. But it’s quite glaring when you start cross referencing each leaderboard. On the show this week, when I put Keith Stewart on the spot about it, he theorized it could have something to do with the overseed on the PGA National greens making them run slower like they’ll get in Mexico. Maybe it’s just both are low strength of field events which feature a lot of the same guys?
Keith Mitchell — Look, betting on Mitchell to win rarely ends well. Anyone who has ever bet on him knows this. Hell, you know this if you bet him in his last start. He gagged away a lead down the stretch for a T2 in Japan a few weeks back. But here me out. He’s putted well his last two times out, has a bevy of spike finishes in the second half of the year, and his only win came at the biggest crossover course in PGA National. I’m a sucker I know. If it helps sting less, I’ve got im boosted up to +4000 at Coolbet for this week.
Michael Kim — MK has been uber consistent since the end of the playoffs with no finish outside the Top 25 in any of his three starts, and three Top 10s in three of his past seven outings. El Cardonal fits his strengths perfectly along with mitigating his biggest weaknesses too. Kim can get a bit loose off the tee, which shouldn’t be an issue with these airport hangar fairways, which allow him to unleash his elite fairway proximity from all ranges, consistently hot putter (6th SG:PUTT over last year), and spike low rounds. All necessary to win in Cabo. OF NOTE: only two golfers have appeared on The Pat Mayo Experience in the last year, and one of them won last week. Why not two in a row?
Seamus Power — Gagged away Bermuda with a horrendous third round putting performance, but has posted elite approach numbers in two of his past three starts, and outside that one round has been rolling it immaculately during the Fall Swing. Power is seventh in approaches inside 10-feet from 100-150 yards, and second in fairway birdie rate. That’s handy at a course which is 98% fairway.
Trace Crowe —It’s been a HOT fall for Crowe thus far. Not sure if he’s got enough juice to get across the finish line, but the right indicators are there. The approach has bene consistently good and his putting his spiking at exactly the right time.
Billy Horschel — If Horschel is over the runs that took him out last week, he sets up perfectly to capitalize on his recent solid form. Few in the field are better from 150-and-in. No player has put balls more consistently inside five-feet from 50-100 yards than William Ho over the past four months, which has led to the fourth best Birdie or Better rate from the fairway in that stretch. He’s spiked over his career at PGA National (the biggest result comp course) and won the last time he played on paspalum (2024 Corales).
Matthieu Pavon — Pavon led all players in approach a week ago and dropped a ton of strokes on the greens en route to a T11. That’s now a second top end result in four starts to go along with his T3 in France at the end of September. While overall quite inconsistent on the PGA Tour, Pavon has quality results in each trip to PGA National in his career and has usually seen his top end finishes come in clusters.
Nick Dunlap — I’m sure if there’s OB to be found, Dunlap will find it off the tee. But if that’s literally impossible, then he’s pretty live. He’s made three cuts in a row, putted well on this type of slow greens, and was the first round leader at El Cardonal a year ago, resulting in a T8; his best finishes over the past two years.