HomeGolf Betting2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks and Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks and Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo

4 months ago

4 months ago

2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks and Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf making his early 2026 WM PHOENIX Open Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.

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2026 WM Phoenix Open Field

  • Field: 132 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties
  • Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 5
  • Defending Champ: Thomas Detry

Initially debuting as a Signature Event back when the PGA toyed with the idea of making Signature Events a rotation, the WP Phoenix Open didn’t need that status. The tournament and venue (and crowds) are the stars, and enough big names wouldn’t dare take a pass regardless of status. It made far more sense to get the most notable players resurrect Pebble Beach.

Placing the biggest stars available at one of the country’s most iconic courses is a simple, logic-based decision; that’s not usually the TOUR’s wheelhouse, however. So, kudos.

Without elevated status, Phoenix still has an excellent field. Scottie Scheffler is back at the site of his first PGA victory. He’s joined by fellow Top 10 Ranked players Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, and Ben Griffin. Beyond them, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Chris Gotterup, Harris English, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Max Greyserman, Sepp Straka, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sahith Theegala, Rickie Fowler, Si WOO Kim, Min WOO Lee, Brian Harman, Mav McNealy, both Hojgaards, Andrew Novak, and Sam Stevens are all in the desert.

Victor Hovland is making his USA debut after starting his season at the Hero Dubai (T14), while TWO-TIME (TWO-TIME) Phoenix winner Brooks Koepka is starting for the second consecutive week.

Michael Kim withdrew from Farmers with a back injury, but told me he’s rested up and good for Phoenix. Michael Brennan returns as well after DQing at Torrey Pines after using an incorrect greens book. He tried the “Chip defense” from Killin’ Them Softly, but he was disqualified anyway.

2026 WM Phoenix Open Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Par 4s Gained
  • Eagles Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Short Game
  • Opportunities Gained

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 Winter Olympics

The Olympics start Friday, and we’ve already pumped out a ton of content from hilarious (and non-informational) to in-depth coverage on small sports and a mega preview of the Men’s Hockey Tournament.

If you’re looking for odds, Coolbet has almost every sport available already, along with a giant board of props for the hockey tournament. If you’re in Canada, and outside Ontario, I likely recommend you grab the sign-up bonus and get firing.

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2026 WM Phoenix Open Course

  • TPC Scottsdale
  • Yardage: 7,261
  • Par: 71
  • Greens: Poa Overseed
  • Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 67
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 6

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 189 yards

  • The three most par’d holes on this course are Par 3’s (the top two coming on the front)
  • The birdie-or-better rate on Par 3’s has been lower here than TOUR average in two of the past three seasons

Par 4’s (11): Average Distance – 440 yards

  • The three hardest holes on property are Par 4’s, two of which come on the first five holes of the back-9
  • Historic driver usage here (85.8%) is far greater than the running TOUR average (68.9%) and was even higher last season (90%)

Par 5’s (3): Average Distance – 557 yards

  • All three have an eagle rate over 2%, and two of them have a higher birdie than par rate
  • Driving accuracy is traditionally lower here (55.7%) than the TOUR average (60.5%)

2026 WM Phoenix Open DFS Streak

Late on the back-9, there is a gettable stretch (Holes 15-17), but in terms of wraparound birdie streaks, neither side plays favorably. If you’re playing front-to-back, five of six holes in that range (Holes 7-12) play over par, with #11 being the toughest on property.

That makes back-to-front sound better, and it is by the smallest of margins, but not nearly enough to move the needle. The 18th hole is the sixth toughest (only a 14.8% birdie rate), and the 2nd hole is the third most difficult (2% double-or-worse rate, never mind a bogey rate that is more than five percentage points higher than the under-par rate).

If it’s going to happen, it’s because your golfer sticks it tight on 18 with birdies sandwiching it, but again, I’m not moving mountains to get access to it.

2026 WM Phoenix Open Past Winners

2025 – Thomas Detry (+10000) at -24, seven clear of Michael Kim and Daniel Berger

  • 66 on Thursday had him two off the pace … that was his worst round of the week
  • The top-5 putters for the week all cashed top 12 paychecks (Detry: +8.4)

2024 – Nick Taylor (+12500) at -21, playoff win over Charley Hoffman

  • FRL by five strokes (seven better than Hoffman on Thursday, five behind him over the weekend)
  • Taylor (+8.9) and Hoffman (+7.2) were 1-2 on the putting board, both were top-10 in APP

2023 – Scottie Scheffler (+1200 as the third favorite) at -19, two clear of Nick Taylor

  • The top-5 approach players all cashed top-10 paychecks (Scheffler: +9.5)
  • The top-9 finishers all gained specifically from 150-175 yards (Scheffler was a negative in proximity from 175-200 and 200+)

2022 – Scottie Scheffler (+2500 as the seventh favorite) at -16, playoff win over Patrick Cantlay

  • The rare spike putting week for Scottie (second in SG:P to offset losing 1.6 strokes in approach … he and Martin Laird were the only top-20 finishers to lose SG: APP)
  • 8 of the top-9 finishers gained ground putting from 20-25 feet (Scottie and Cantlay were both gainers from 25+ feet as well)

2021: Brooks Koepka (+4000)

  • 68 or better in every round (65 on Sunday — three better than KH Lee and six better than Xander Schauffele, the two who finished as runner-ups)
  • Six of the top-12 finishers lost strokes off the tee for the week (Jordan Spieth finished T-4 despite being the sixth worst off the tee)
  • Entered Sunday, 5 back of Jordan Spieth/Xander Schauffele, shot his best round of the week (65) while the other had their worst (Spieth was 11 shots worse on Sunday than Saturday)
  • Each of the top 10 finishers gained Good Drives on the field (five of them lost distance)

2020: Webb Simpson (+1400)

  • Was 12 behind Wyndham Clark after Thursday before going 63-64 over the next two days
  • 13 of the top-15 finishers gained multiple strokes putting.
  • 22 of the top 24 finishers gained strokes on Par 3’s (that was what kept Finau in it — he gained 4 more strokes on Par 3’s than Simpson).

2019: Rickie Fowler (+1800)

  • Fowler was a Round 1 leader (64, bogey-free) and fired the third-best Round 2 (65), allowing him to overcome a 74 on Sunday (double bogey on #5, triple bogey on #11)
  • Fowler posted the best putting performance of his career (+9.5), but putting wasn’t otherwise predictive (only four of the top 16 putters for the week finished inside the top 20)

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2025

2024

2023

2022

2026 WM Phoenix Open Notes

11 players who have hoisted novelty checks in Phoenix have also won THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler joined that list with his win at TPC Sawgrass three years ago. (It’s actually 12 if, like Tim Andercust, you count Hideki in 2020 as a PLAYERS win).

I was looking at the courses to figure out why that might be the case, and aside from both being TPC courses and having a series of very difficult, long Par 4s, it’s kind of a mystery to me. Not a complete mystery, mind you; it’s just, when you think Sawgrass, my first thought goes to Wyndham Championship and a rota of short Bermuda courses (Sony, Heritage, etc). But those crossovers don’t seem to work at all. TPC Craig Ranch, another Tom Weiskopf course, is another angle to research.

Here are the per-round SG leaders from TPC Craig Ranch in the field this week

STATS, TOOL & DATA PROVIDED BY BETSPERTS GOLF’S RABBIT HOLE

Stats that have correlated to finishing position in the past five years, beyond the traditional Strokes Gained metrics, have been Par 5s Gained/Eagles Gained and Par 4s Gained. There are five holes 450-500 at TPC Scottsdale, three of which are the most difficult on the course.

Like most weeks, approach and putting matter most among the stats, but TPC Scottsdale provides a much flatter distribution for each Tee-To-Green metric than most events. We get tournaments where approach can be worth as much as four times the value of driving and chipping, but not this week.

Maybe that’s the key. The complete game. Because a second glance at the past winners shows two very obvious correlations:

  1. Name-brand players win in Phoenix.
  2. Most winners are US Open winners or consistent high-end finishers.

Brooks, Webb, and Woodland are all former US Champs, while two-time Phoenix winner Scotty Scheffler has four Top 10s at US Opens in the past five years. Hideki has a pair of Top 4 US Open finishes, including a T6 two years ago, and Rickie has three Top 5 finishes. Nick Taylor blows that all up, however. But he is from the Si WOO school of WIN or MC.

Spike Rounds of 3+ SG: T2G at the US Open the Last 4 Years

It’s possible, the attack strategy is the key, despite playing about 400 yards shorter than the South Course at Torrey Pines, expect most of the field to attack with drivers off the tee (85% driver usage the past five years) with more than 61% of all drives going over 300 yards, and 31% going over 320 yards in 2025. There’s an elevation component to that as well, clearly.

(Stats from 2023 Season)

All three Par 5s are reachable in two, but No. 15 tends to be a magnet for the water. Much like its aqua brethren, No. 18 at TPC Twin Cities, you must carry the hazard to reach it in two. 70+ balls typically find themselves nestled at the bottom of the lake during the tournament. Despite there only being three Par 5s, they combined for the fifth-best score to par overall when going for the green (-572) in 2020. Overall, TPC Scottsdale annually sits inside the Top 5 courses with the most water balls in the neighborhood of 225+.

Beyond the Par 5s, the drivable par 4 17th is the other spot on the course to gain back significant strokes on the field. Just 332 yards, every player can take a crack at the green from the tee box, but with water looming off the left side, both eagle and bogey are in play depending on the drive. Originally, I assumed it was an ultimate risk/reward proposition, but players have made par 40% of the time on No. 17 after they go into the water. Considering the field makes birdie over 38% of the time and eagle more than 1% of the time, there’s little incentive to lay up. In 2020, 51 balls found the water off the tee, while 63 landed on the green.

No. 17 is also the hole that features the most putts from over 80 feet. There have been over 220 putts from 80 feet or beyond on this green, and almost half have resulted in a three-putt or worse (49.3%).

You know, maybe all the water and being good at avoiding it is the link between Scottsdale and Sawgrass?

The GCSAA has changed the green type from “TifEagle Bermuda over-seeded with velvet bentgrass, Poa trivialis, and perennial ryegrass .100.” to a much simpler, “Poa overseed” aka “Poa Trivialis.” This is likely the bigger link between Scottsdale and Sawgrass. We saw these types of greens two weeks ago at the American Express.

These greens are historically firm and run about TOUR average for speed, which has helped out the poorer putters as shorter putts have become easier in these conditions.

In 2020, the field made 89% of putts inside 10 feet, while players made around 17% of their putts between 15 and 25 feet, making it one of the five easiest courses from that range each year. The greens at Scottsdale are an outlier in this part of the schedule, featuring the infuriating putting surfaces of Torrey, Pebble, and RIV, which are synonymous with short misses.

Since 2000, 11 54-hole leaders have gone on to convert the victory on Sunday, and only five since 2009, but it’s been three in a row now — Scheffler in 2023, Nick Taylor in 2024, and Detry a year ago.

Johnny Miller (1974 and 1975), Matsuyama (2016 and 2017), and Scheffler (2022/2023) are the only back-to-back winners in Phoenix, while Arnold Palmer, Phil Mickelson, Gene Littler, and Mark Calcavecchia are the only three-time winners of this event. There have been multiple repeat winners since 2000: Mickelson, Matsuyama, Koepka, Scheffler, and JB Holmes have each won twice. Unless the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia decides to buy the course after the final putt on Sunday, it’s very unlikely Detry will become a two-time champ.

This event has gone to a playoff in 6 of the past 9 years, with the widest winning margin being 2 strokes before Detry posted a TD (with an XP) on the field last season.

All-time, 10 players have won in their first appearance at TPC Scottsdale dating back to 1932. Koepka (2015), Stanley (2012), and Holmes (2005) are the only players to accomplish that feat this millennium.

GIRs are higher than the TOUR average, while hitting fairways is slightly below most courses (56 percent to 61 percent average). As reflected in the GIR rate, the rough isn’t very penalizing, although there isn’t much of it. Once you’ve veered too far from the short grass, you’re in the desert. There are 67 sand traps littered across the course, with water in play on six holes. There’s also an abundance of cacti littered throughout the sand. Ask Spencer Levin.

The cut line has been between -1 and +1 nine of the past 10 years.

2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks

Brooks Koepka — I needed to see something from Brooks at Torrey Pines, and I did. Despite a T56 result, Brooks was 11th tee-to-green on the South Course; he just happened to lose an ungodly -7.23 strokes putting. Worst in the field. Now, this isn’t a new thing. Koepka has been plagued by terrible putting for over a year now. It’s unfortunate he didn’t leave that issue with LIV. In his post-round interview, he mentioned spending hours working on his putting stroke Saturday evening. And outworked, kind of. After losing 5.45 strokes in round three, Brooks only lost 0.31 on Sunday. Improvement! This is probably going to persist all year, but TPC Scottsdale is a perfect spot to spike back the other way and start rolling it in the cup. In five career Phoenix starts, Koepka has two wins, a T3, and has never lost strokes putting in any of those appearances; gaining an average of 3.37 SG: PUTT.

Pierceson Coody — With his T2 at Torrey Pines, Coody has now reeled off three straight Top 20s to kick off 2026. Finishing fourth in tee-to-green, Coody led all players in driving. A good sign considering he’s heading to a course where players hit driver 90% of the time.

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