2026 Valspar Championship Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks
Pat Mayo
2 months ago
2026 Valspar Championship Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview
Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 Valspar Championship Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.
WATCH: Valspar Championship 2026 Picks | Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown
2026 Valspar Championship: Field
- Field: 133 Players
- Cut: Top 65 & Ties After 36-Holes
- First Tee: Thursday, March 19
- Defending Champion: Viktor Hovland
Now that Heritage has been elevated to a signature event, the Valspar (maybe Colonial) has become my favorite non-Major of the year. Last year, the field was drastically improved, with a lot of top-end names opting to use the Valspar as their final Masters warm-up in lieu of either of the Texas events. Ditto this season, and with the field down to 133, it’s only more competitive.
Last year’s champ, Viktor Hovland, is back to defend his title, along with Cam Young, Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schaffer, Jordan Spieth, Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin, both Hojgaards, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Brooks Koepka, JJ Spaun, Sahith Theegala, Taylor Pendrith, and Max Homa.
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Be on the lookout for some WDs on Monday, with so many guys from the top of The PLAYERS leaderboard expected in the field.
The Valspar is the site of one of his most memorable moments. This is where the term ” going Full Keegan” was coined. In 2016, Keegan jumped out to a scorching opening-round 67 to tie for the first-round lead with Charles Howell III and Ken Duke, only to combust in the second round, where a Friday 79 had him heading home for the weekend. While the term gets thrown around a lot when a player has a sizzling Thursday followed by a pure implosion on Friday, going from first-round leader to a missed cut is truly how you go “Full Keegan.” Keegan is back for vengeance this week. He was also first round leader in 2021.
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2026 Valspar Championship: Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 3s Gained: 200-225 Yards
- Good Drives Gained
- Strokes Gained: Short Game
- Par 4s Gained: 400-450 Yards
Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool
2026 Valspar Championship: Course
- Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
- Yardage: 7,352
- Par: 71
- Greens: Poa Trivialis
- Number of Sand Bunkers: 74
- Number of Holes Water is in Play: 9
- Average Fairway Widths: 20 yards
- Average Green Size: 5,800 sq. ft.
Par 3’s (5): Average Distance – 212 yards
7 holes have a sub 11% birdie rate, and four of them are Par 3’s
Hovland: at least one Par 3 birdie in all four rounds
Par 4’s (9): Average Distance – 441 yards
Six of the seven highest bogey rates come on Par 4’s (four of them on the front nine)
Hovland: Didn’t card a single Par 4 birdie on Thursday or Saturday
Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 583 yards
The four easiest holes on property, but two have a higher double+ rate than an eagle rate
Hovland: Multiple Par 5 birdies in each of the final three days of the event
DK SHOWDOWN STREAK
The 9’s provide different challenges, but the odds of a birdie streak net out roughly equal. Going front-to-back doesn’t ask you any super difficult questions (Holes 9-11 all rank 10th easiest or better), but the Par 5 when going back-to-front (#1) plays as the easiest hole on property.
If forced to pick, I’d take the set of holes with the lower mean score than the set with the single easiest (so I’d go front-to-back), but it’s not nearly enough of an edge to shift your process.
2026 Valspar Championship: Past Winners
- 2025: Viktor Hovland -11
- 2024: Peter Malnati -12
- 2023: Taylor Moore -10
- 2022 Sam Burns -17
- 2021 Sam Burns -17
- 2019 Paul Casey -8
- 2018 Paul Casey -10
- 2017 Adam Hadwin -14
- 2016 Charl Schwartzel -7
- 2015 Jordan Spieth -10
2025: Viktor Hovland (+8000) beats Justin Thomas by 1
The top 3 putters for the week were the top 3 on the final leaderboard (Hovland, Thomas, and Bridgeman)
Seven of the top 11 finishers lost distance on the field
2024: Peter Malnati (+30000) beats Cam Young by 2
Three of the top four finishers gained over 5.5 strokes with the flat stick
20 of the top 25 finishers gained proximity from 175-200 yards (Malnati was the fourth best in the field for the week in this regard)
2023: Taylor Moore (+5000) beats Adam Schenk by 1
17 of the top 18 finishers gained putting from 5-10 feet (9 of the top 15 lost from 15-20 feet)
Moore was the only top 5 finisher to shoot in the 60’s on Sunday (67)
2022: Sam Burns (+2000, T-5th favorite) playoff win over Davis Riley
Burns was the only top 15 finisher to lose ground OTT for the week
10 of the top 11 finishers were within 3 strokes of the lead after Thursday
13 of the top 15 finishers gained ground from 150-175 yards
2021: Sam Burns (+6000) beats Keegan Bradley by 3
Spike putting was the story … 3 players (Burns, Ancer, and Vaughn Taylor) gained 9+ strokes putting, and they all finished T-6 or better for the week.
11 of the top 12 finishers gained proximity from 100-125 yards out on the field
2019: Paul Casey (-8, one clear of Jason Kokrak and Louie Oosthuizen)
His 66 on Friday was his best effort of the week and tied for the best on the course that day
11 of the top 12 finishers gained around the green (Louie finished 2nd thanks to a field-best +6.2 ARG, saving his -2.4 strokes in approach)
2018: Paul Casey (-10, one clear of Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed)
He closed in style with a 65 (5 better than Woods and 3 better than Reed)
Three of the top six in SG: ARG cashed top 5 paychecks for the week (six of the top seven finishers for the week picked up multiple strokes ARG)
2026 Valspar Championship: FIRST ROUND LEADER
2025
- 67: Keith Mitchell (AM), Stephan Jaeger (AM), Sami Valimaki (PM), Ricky Castillo (AM), and Jacob Bridgeman (AM)
2024
- 64: Kevin Streelman (PM)
- 65: Kevin Roy (PM)
2023
- 66: Ryan Brehm (AM), Stephan Jaeger (AM), and Adam Schenk (PM)
2022
- 64: Sam Burns (PM), Adam Hadwin (PM), Jhonattan Vegas (AM), and David Lipsky (PM)
2021
- 64: Keegan Bradley (AM)
- 66: 5-way tie
2026 Valspar Championship: NOTES
For adjusted par, even being a par 71, Copperhead plays longer than the scorecard since there are five par 3s complementing the standard four Par 5s. Four of those Par 3s can measure more than 200 yards, and all rank inside the nine most difficult holes on the course.
Factor in the severe doglegs, the tree-lined fairways, 74 bunkers, nine holes with water hazards, and an average driving distance more than 12 yards shorter than the average course, and you have one of the PGA TOUR’s most difficult tracks. Oh, driving accuracy and greens in regulation hit are below the PGA TOUR average, too. You’re looking for a player who can acutely manage each aspect of their game, Tee-To-Green, and hope they don’t putt themselves out of the event.
Outside of the Par 5s, which even play more difficult than you think, the entire course is brutal, but the SNAKE PIT (hiss noise) is where the big blow-ups happen. And it’s far more noticeable since they’re the closing holes. And also because there’s an awesome statue signifying the lurking danger ahead …
Essentially, it’s the budget Bear Trap. It could use a good PR firm to enhance its image. Holes 16, 17, and 18 are among the most difficult three-hole stretches played annually on the PGA TOUR. No Valspar winner has ever played the Snake Pit at better than even par.
Historic Snake Pit Data
- Hole 16: Par 4 | 475 Yards | +0.29 (Rank 1) | 8.7% Birdies; 23.2% Bogeys; 5.1% Doubles or Worse
- Hole 17: Par 3 | 215 Yards | +0.10 (Rank 11) | 12.8% Birdies; 15.4% Bogeys; 1.3% Doubles or Worse
- Hole 18: Par 4 | 445 Yards | +0.14 (Rank 6) | 12.2% Birdies; 19% Bogeys; 1.4% Doubles or Worse
I plead with you, DO NOT victory lap a winner until they tap in on 18. The potential for multi-shot swings over this final stretch almost seems inevitable, and may even create a decent live betting opportunity on a player already in the clubhouse.
The cutline had not been below par since 2003, then 2022 came along. Conditions were a tad softer, and the cut of Top 65 and ties came in at -2. That -2 looks like an outlier with the cut line shifting back over par the past three seasons.
If it wasn’t tough enough (shout out Maven!), Copperhead has the second-most three-putts inside five feet of any course since 2011, trailing only Riviera. And it features the lowest birdie-or-better percentage of any course on the PGA TOUR. This would be an amazing U.S. Open course if it weren’t in Florida. But having a U.S. Open at Copperhead in the middle of June would result in more players with heatstroke than finishing under par. While we have to wait for the numbers to drop, this could be a course to attack the lower markets on Birdies or Better on Underdog. Price dependent.
A true outlier, both Par 5 and Par 3 performance have had a more meaningful impact on the Top-5 finishers over the years than Par 4s. It’s one of the only PGA TOUR courses where Par 4s rank last among the three.
Strokes Gained: Approach has factored into the Top 5 finishers’ performance over 2 times more than Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, and 2.2 times more than Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
Additionally, versus the average course on the PGA TOUR, Par 3s, Par 4s from 400-450 yards, and approaches from 175-200 yards are more impactful at Copperhead than at most venues.
Also, success at the Sanderson Farms has translated over the years. Burns and Malnati are former winners of both events, and the leaderboard over the last few years has been littered with historically strong performers at CC of Jackson.
2026 Valspar Championship: Picks
Brooks Koepka — After +8.17 SG: Ball Striking at Sawgrass, that’s three elite ball striking performances in four starts for Brooks. Eventually, the putter will stabilize. Hopefully it’s this week.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju — Best in the field in total driving and fourth in approach shots inside 15 feet from 175-200 yards on the season. Ride the wave after a career-best performance at THE PLAYERS.
Ryo Hisatsune — Hisatsune very quietly snuck up to T13 on The PLAYERS, finished eighth in the field, Ball Striking. He’s Top 10 in the field in total driving, already has three Top 10s in 2026, and finished T4 here a year ago. Just needs to warm his putter back up.