HomeGolf BettingPat Mayo’s 2026 Valero Texas Open Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo’s 2026 Valero Texas Open Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo

2 months ago

2 months ago

Pat Mayo’s 2026 Valero Texas Open Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 Valero Texas Open

WATCH: Valero Texas Open 2026 Picks | Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown

2026 Valero Texas Open Field

  • Field: 132 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 & Ties
  • First Tee: Thursday, April 2
  • Defending Champion: Brian Harman

Only one Augusta invitation remains open: Anyone not currently in the field for The Masters must win to get in.

Pierceson Coody WD’d from Houston after round one. Terrible timing as he entered the week, the 51st-ranked player in the world, and only needed to make the cut to move inside the Top 50 and get his Masters invite. He’s currently in the field for Valero, but there has been no update on his condition. Bud Cauley also WD’d after round 1. Few noticed.

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Ryan Gerard pulled out after his missed cut at Houston. Likely the victim of too much golf. He travelled to Africa in December to earn a Masters invitation and accomplished that feat. Then he never took his foot off the gas, playing nine events so far in 2026, and his game has started to deteriorate. A break is likely needed. Isaiah Salinda was listed in the field but pulled out Sunday evening, too.

Although it hasn’t yet happened, I’d prepare for Gary Woodland and Nicolai Hojgaard to skip San Antonio as well after earning their Masters spots on Sunday.

Collin Morikawa returns to action for the first time since playing one hole at THE PLAYERS and exiting the course with a back injury. If he’s actually OK, he should really be the betting favorite this week.

Will Zalatoris made his return in Houston for the first time since early January and missed the cut on the number. Lost to the field driving and chipping, gained marginally with irons, and was only moderately competitive because of a hot putter.

Overall, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Robert MacIntyre, Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim, Maverick McNealy, Michael Thorbjornsen, Daniel Berger, Alex Noren, JJ Spaun, Marco Penge, and defending champ Brian Harman will all be in the field at the Valero Texas Open

MASTERS GIVEAWAY!!!!!

Masters week kicks off Thursday. I have a hole-by-hole breakdown of Augusta National with Michael Kim, complete with visuals! And, as is tradition for PME and Masters week, I’VE GOT GIVEAWAYS!!!!!!!

Helix Mattresses have stepped up and given me a mattress to give to one lucky person. Plus, there will be other prizes, including cash and golf balls. All you need to do is get in the draw.

All of the ballots help support the show, so you can win something and help support the business. Heroes, every one of you.

How to get Ballots in FREE HELIX MATTRESS GIVEAWAY DRAW

2026 Valero Texas Open Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Good Drives Gained
  • Par 4s Gained 400-450 yards
  • Opportunities Gained inside 150 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 Valero Texas Open Course

  • Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
  • Yardage: 7,438
  • Par: 72
  • Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
  • Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 64
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 3
  • Average Fairway Widths: 25-30 yards

Par 3’s (4): Average distance – 201 yards

The four most oft-par’d courses on the course, with tough #13 an impactful hole (23.6% over par rate)

2025: Harman: -3 on the front nine Par 3’s for the week and +3 on the back nine

2024: Bhatia played the par 3’s at even par last year (one birdie and one bogey)

Par 4’s (10): Average distance – 429 yards

Three of the four toughest holes on this course are Par 4’s on the front nine (1-4-9), all of which have an over-par rate north of 29%

The two shortest Par 4s carry a birdie rate north of 23% (one of which is Hole 17, which also has a bogey rate of just 8.5% … all reward, little risk)

2025: Harman: Didn’t have a bogey-free round for the week, and he had a Par 4 bogey in each of the final three days (weekend, front nine: +5 on the Par 4’s)

2024: Bhatia didn’t bogey any hole twice, but four of his five bogeys for the week did come on Par 4’s

Par 5’s (4): Average distance – 588 yards

Some of the most difficult collection of Par 5s on TOUR

While still the easier holes on property, but three own a bogey rate over 11% and a sub-30% birdie rate. The one you have to get is #14 (2.1% eagle rate, the other three all have a sub-1% rate

There were more eagles on Hole 14 in 2023 than on the other three Par 5s combined, so that is your must-score hole. Hole 8 is over 600 yards and could be a difference maker: 20.4% birdie rate and 15.6% bogey rate.

  • 2025: Harman: Multiple Par 5 birdies in three of four days, played #14 at -3 for the week)
  • 2024: Bhatia had 10 birdies on the Par 5’s for the week (he got 2-14-18 three times apiece)

DFS Streak

The Front Nine is bookended by two of the three toughest holes on the course, and that naturally makes any streak stringing together the 9’s difficult. If you’re breaking ties this way, back-to-front would be my play because of how easy the back wraps (holes 17-18 both have an under par rate north of 26%) and with a Par 5 waiting on #2, but that 10.5% birdie rate on #1 makes this a speculative angle, not one I’m going out of my way to target.

2026 Valero Texas Open Past Winners

2025: Brian Harman (+9000) beat Ryan Gerard by 3 strokes

  • Jumped out with a 66-66 start (7 strokes better than Gerard)
  • 9 of the top 11 finishers gained ground on the field in P4 400-450.

2024: Akshay Bhatia (+6600) playoff win over Denny McCarthy

  • Three of the Top 4 finishers (and five of the top-9) lost ground putting from 20-25 feet AND 25+ feet.
  • Three golfers picked up 7+ strokes on approach, and they finished 1-3-4
  • Bhatia was the best in the field in SG: APP. Henley was second-best in SG:APP and finished fourth for the week; McIlroy was third-best in SG:APP and finished third for the week; McCarthy was seventh-best in SG:APP and finished second for the week.
  • Bhatia gained +18.79 strokes tee-to-green, an elite outlier performance for this event.
  • His win was driven by strong iron play, gaining +2.04 strokes on approach, which ranks as one of the best approach performances by a winner at this event since 2010.

2023: Corey Conners (+2500, T-3rd favorite behind Hatton and Fowler) beat Sam Stevens by 1 stroke

  • Five of the top-9 finishers lost ground off the tee
  • The final leaderboard was Conners-Stevens-Kuchar-Ryder. The final SG: APP leaderboard was Conners-Stevens-Kuchar-Ryder
  • 2022: JJ Spaun (+15000) beat Matt Kuchar and Matt Jones by 2 strokes
  • Six of the seven top finishers gained strokes putting 10-15 feet AND 15-20 feet (three of them lost from 20-25 feet AND 25+ feet)
  • The top 7 finishers all picked up Prox 125-150
  • 7 of the top-12 finishers gained ground both ARG and P for the week

2021: Jordan Spieth (+1200, favorite) beat Charley Hoffman by 2 strokes

  • Spieth was better than Hoffman for just one round (8 strokes better on Thursday)
  • 10 of the top 11 finishers gained strokes putting (Spieth, Chris Kirk, and Anirban Lahiri were all top-6 putters for the week and parlayed it into top-6 finishes on the final leaderboard)
  • 14 of the top 16 finishers gained Pro 175-200 (Spieth won despite losing ground on the field in the 125-150, 150-175, and 200+ buckets)

2019: Corey Conners -20 (+25000)

  1. Conners was the only player to card four rounds in the 60’s (his 66 on Sunday was his best of the week and T-3rd best on the course that day)
  2. Conners was the best in SG: APP by 3 strokes (allowed him to overcome -1.5 strokes ARG)

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2025

2024

  • 63 – Akshay Bhatia** (his best round by four strokes and seven shots better than his Friday)
  • 66 – Brandon Todd (his only round for the week in the 60’s) and Justin Lower (his only round for the week in the 60’s, fired a 77 on Friday)

2023

  • 64 – Corey Conners** (his best round by four strokes and eight shots better than his Friday)
  • 66 – Patrick Rodgers (11 strokes better pre-cut than post-cut)

2022

  • 65 – Russell Knox (his only round in the 60’s, 11 shots worse on Friday)
  • 66 – Rasmus Hojgaard (followed the hot start with 73-74 on Friday-Saturday)

2021

  • 64 – Camilo Villegas (his only round in the 60’s, 12 shots worse on Friday)
  • 66 – Cameron Tringale (10 shots better pre-cut than post-cut) and Sung Kang (72 or worse in each of the next three rounds)

2026 Valero Texas Open Notes

TPC San Antonio Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia and has been host to this event since 2010. Despite low winning scores, TPC San Antonio is annually one of the 10 toughest courses to par.

TPC San Antonio annually has the toughest greens to hit in regulation on the PGA TOUR (58%), along with Riviera CC, Harbour Town GL, and TPC Southwind.

If you don’t know by now, Strokes Gained: Approach is the most influential stat at any course. It’s not necessarily predictive, insomuch that like anything in golf, a player can have a great approach one week and then completely lose it the next. Usually, SG: APP massively outweighs both SG: Off The Tee and SG: Around the Green by a large margin when looking back to see how the top finishers actually got to the top of the leaderboard. However, TPC San Antonio is one of the courses where driving inches closer to overall importance. Driving isn’t quite as big a factor as approaches, but it’s more than half SG: APP, which is much less than a lot of courses. Long and straight is what you want off the tee, but it turns out that not everyone is Scottie Scheffler. Only 56% of drives find the shortgrass, which is below the PGA TOUR average (62%).

It’s essentially the Bryson strategy from Winged Foot: If players are going to miss the fairway regardless, they may as well hit it as far as possible. With that extra distance, players can cut down on the number of long irons throughout the week, and you won’t end up in the forest and make a 16 like Kevin Na. Just avoid the OB. While obviously still wide, the gap between GIR from the fairway and GIR from the rough is a lot lower this week than on an average PGA TOUR course. The last two years in San Antonio has then 64.5% GIR from the fairway against 50% from the rough; the TOUR average is 77% to 52%.

Despite the difficulty, proximity from inside 100 yards averaged just around 20 feet, meaning elite wedge players can still generate strong scoring chances.

There are 64 bunkers littered across the course, three of the four Par 3s are AT LEAST 207 yards, plus distance will assist in fostering birdies on the monstrous par 5s – three of the four par 5s are 591 yards or longer, taking more eagle chances out of play, and another that falls just under the 600-yard barrier. Less than half of the field goes for the greens in two on the Par 5s (45%), and a green under regulation is hit only around 11% of the time, vs the TOUR average of 22%. This swings the Par 5 scoring metrics back towards players excellent with their wedges and 100 yards and in.

The cut line was under par for the first time ever at TPC San Antonio last season (-1). At the wind-infused 2015 event, it was +7. It had been +2 and +1 the two years previous.

The Par 4 No. 17 is drivable for a lot of the field although very few players actually make eagle (31% Birdie rate; 0.7% Eagle Rate). It plays as the second-easiest hole annually.

Five of the past 11 winners made the Valero Texas Open their first PGA TOUR victory: Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, JJ Spaun, and Steven Bowditch.

Since play began at the Oaks Course in 2010, the third-round leader/co-leader has gone on to win ten times.

Success at TPC San Antonio clearly favors players who can spike tee-to-green, especially in approach play, rather than relying solely on putting.

Wind can play a major factor on this exposed course. The gusts at the 2015 event were the most impactful ever seen from an AM/PM. split perspective. That year, the morning wave had a scoring average of 78.61, almost four strokes worse than the afternoon wave (74.86). It caused seven players to withdraw over the first two rounds. That one round still has DraftKings players sweating the weather every week. Even last year, wind and conditions massively reduced the scoring compared to previous seasons. At -9, Harman became the first single winner since 2014, when Steven Bowditch was crowned champion. And that was all on the weekend in 2025; only two players broke 70 on Saturday and three on Sunday. Harman won, shooting 75 in the final round.

Outside of an insane British Open weather swing, it’s doubtful we’ll ever see wind affect one side of the draw so impactful ever again. Don’t sweat it too much, but it’s worth taking a gander at the weather report before making any final decisions.

WIND TOWER: San Antonio International Airport

Here’s an advanced forecast. Of note, this looks a lot better than it did when I did the research show.

2026 Valero Texas Open Picks

Collin Morikawa — Look, if the back’s OK, he’s wildly underpriced. While Rory didn’t perform well after his quick turnaround from WD at Bay Hill to THE PLAYERS with a back injury, that was all putting-related, despite what you may have heard. It’ll be important to monitor Morikawa’s status pre-tournament, but if it was just a tweak or a back spasm, his not being the betting favorite in a skills-and-form match to the course is wild.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju — Back-to-back Top 10s for Sudar McGavin. He’s driving, hitting irons, and putting well above TOUR average, and he didn’t embarrass himself chipping in Houston. Positive in all four quadrants is better, but plus ball striking coupled with plus putting has been the recipe in the past at the Oaks Course.

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