2026 U.S. Open: 8 Data Points to Consider this Week

The 2026 U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, and the eight strokes gained data points below are the ones to build into your model this week. The William Flynn layout plays as a par 70 of roughly 7,434 yards on the championship card, and a recent restoration removed trees, widened the fairways, brought back the fescue, and expanded the greens for firm and fast conditions. It sits exposed near the Atlantic, so this is the sixth U.S. Open here and the first since Brooks Koepka won in 2018, and it reads closer to an Open Championship venue than a typical parkland major.

The defining feature is how fairway width and the miss penalty interact. The fairways are wide, but the fescue is brutal, so anyone who sprays it is hacking out, and the edge goes to strong total driving rather than raw distance. Driver usage in 2018 was only around 64 percent, the greens are firm poa annua, and wind is the central variable, with the windiest day projected for Thursday and gusts as high as 35 mph on Friday after overnight rain. Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite near +450 to +560 chasing the career Grand Slam, with Rory McIlroy near +900 to +1000 and a deep tier of ball-strikers and wind-and-links names behind them.

The Foundation, Start Here

1. Total Driving Off the Tee

View: Off The Tee | Column: Good Drive % | Possible Filters: Missed Fwy Penalty High, Rough Penalty High, Course Length Long

Long and straight beats long this week. With wide landing areas but a severe penalty for finding the fescue, the players who keep it in play without giving up all their length control their own card. Tommy Fleetwood near +1800 is the cleanest expression of that profile, a long-and-straight driver who finished runner-up here in 2018. Matt Fitzpatrick near +2200 ranks near the top of tour in driving accuracy, and Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young near +2000 both pair length with control. Model the total driving number up, and treat the pure bombers who scatter it as fades rather than core plays.

2. Strokes Gained Approach

View: Approach | Column: SG:APP | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Poa, GIR Accuracy Difficult, Gain APP Difficult

Approach play is the heaviest input into the firm, crowned greens, where a ball above the hole or short of a false front can roll well back. Scheffler is the obvious precise-irons profile and was runner-up at the 2022 U.S. Open, with four top-10s in his last five starts in this championship. Fitzpatrick, the 2022 champion, sits near the top of the Mayo Media stat model on iron play, and Russell Henley near +4000 grades inside that model top five as an accuracy-first fit. Weight the recent approach number heavily, since that is the skill the setup tests most.

3. Strokes Gained Tee to Green

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:T2G | Possible Filters: Event Type Major, Scoring Conditions Difficult, Course Length Long

Ball-striking pedigree is the foundation here, and 2018 makes the case plainly. Koepka ranked first in ball-striking and won, and Fleetwood ranked second and finished second, so the tee-to-green number tracked the finish order closely. Scheffler leads this group on current form, Fleetwood backs it up with three U.S. Open top-fives, and Bryson DeChambeau near +2000 is a two-time U.S. Open champion whose complete striking fits a long par 70. Build the ball-strikers first and let the putter break ties.

Getting Granular, One Layer Deeper

4. Long Approach Proximity

View: Overall Approach Proximity | Column: 150-200 | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, Par 70, Gain APP Difficult

A long par 70 leaves a glut of mid-to-long approaches, so control from 150 yards and out matters more than wedge polish this week. Daniel Berger, near +18000 and strong in approach this season, finished sixth here in 2018 and fits these distances. DeChambeau and Henley also profile well when the approach is long, since both hold the firm surface with quality strikes. A model that weights the longer proximity bands will separate the field better than one built on scoring-club distances.

5. Scrambling from the Rough

View: Around the Green | Column: Scrambling Rough % | Possible Filters: Rough Length Long, Rough Surface Fescue, Scrambling – Rough Difficult

Even the best drivers will land in the fescue, so par-saving from thick rough is a survival stat rather than a luxury. Ben Griffin is the headline name, one of the best short-game players on tour and a tie for 10th in his U.S. Open debut in 2025. J.J. Spaun, the defending champion near +4000, and Sam Burns near +3000 both lean on the short game to steady a round. When the wind shows up, the scramblers who turn a lost drive into a par will outlast the field.

6. Strokes Gained Putting on Poa

View: Putting | Column: SG:P | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Poa, Greens Speed Fast

Poa annua is bumpy and surface-specific, so filter the putting number to it rather than using raw strokes gained on the greens. The one knock on Scheffler in previews is a cooler putter lately, a 12th at the Memorial seen as a mild disappointment by his standard, so this is the category to check before stacking him everywhere. Xander Schauffele near +1600 and former champion Justin Rose near +3500 both have the poa pedigree to lean on, and a player who can simply avoid three-putts on these crowned greens banks strokes the bombers give back.

Down the Rabbit Hole

7. Tough-Conditions Major Pedigree

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:TOT | Possible Filters: Event Type Major, Majors U.S. Open and Open Championship, Scoring Conditions Difficult, Course Type Coastal

There is no wind column, so proxy it with how players perform in hard, links-style majors. Filtering to U.S. Open and Open Championship history in difficult scoring conditions captures the survivors. Schauffele owns elite U.S. Open consistency with nine straight top-15s, seven top-10s, and a sixth here in 2018, though the CBS Sports model flags him as a futures fade to finish outside the top five, so treat his price as a leverage debate rather than a clean lean. Fleetwood and Scheffler both grade out strongly under this filter, and on an exposed course the wind, not raw length, may decide who is still standing Sunday.

8. Course History and Comps

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:TOT | Possible Filters: Course Type Coastal, Greens Surface Poa, Event Type Major, plus tick Load Comp Courses

Shinnecock has hosted only twice in the strokes gained era, so tick the Load Comp Courses checkbox to widen the sample with similar coastal and fescue tests. The 2018 board still travels: Fleetwood was second, Patrick Reed near +4000 was solo fourth, Berger and Schauffele tied for sixth, Rose tied for 10th, and Fitzpatrick was 12th. Local angles add leverage, with in-state Cameron Young and Rutgers product Chris Gotterup near +4500, the name Pat Mayo picked outright to win. One caution: Koepka won here in 2018 but withdrew from the RBC Canadian Open on June 14 unable to grip the club, so keep him off your model until he confirms he can play.

Think driving matters more than putting this week? Prove it. New players get the first week for $1 with code USOPEN at The Rabbit Hole, and can weight the strokes gained PGA categories however they want.

Pulling It All Together

The profile reads long and straight off the tee, approach and ball-striking as the engine, scrambling from the fescue as the survival skill, poa putting as the separator, and tough-major pedigree as the wind proxy, all of it tilted toward control over power. That points the betting leans at the supported ball-strikers first, with Scottie Scheffler near +450 to +560 chasing the Grand Slam, Tommy Fleetwood near +1800 as the value consensus, Matt Fitzpatrick near +2200, and Bryson DeChambeau near +2000.

Longer-number model fits include Russell Henley near +4000, Patrick Reed near +4000, and Chris Gotterup near +4500 as the local leverage name, with Daniel Berger near +18000 a dart that fits the approach test. Cameron Young near +2000 ties the driving and home-region angles together. Xander Schauffele near +1600 is the price-and-leverage debate given the CBS fade, Ludvig Aberg near +2000 is the boom-or-bust upside play with a shaky major record, and Brooks Koepka is a monitor only until his grip is confirmed healthy. Reweight as the wind firms up toward Thursday, since softer greens after the overnight rain would nudge the model back toward the longer hitters.