Pat Mayo’s 2026 RBC Canadian Open Picks, Preview, Stats | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo’s 2026 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 RBC Canadian Open Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course at TPC Toronto.

RBC Canadian Open Picks, Research, Rankings, Sleepers, Course Preview

2026 CANADIAN OPEN FIELD

• Field: 145 Players
• Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
• First Tee: June 11
• Defending Champion: Ryan Fox

The Canadian Open was in serious trouble in the mid 2010s. It lost all its juice. It was played at a bland course, only attracting C-Level stars (and Dustin Johnson because of RBC obligations).

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Since then, the world’s third-oldest open championship and second-longest-running event on the PGA Tour has benefited from a series of unportable events that really worked in its favor. All starting in 2019.

Getting changed on the schedule from the week after The Open to the week before the US Open was a major coup for field strength and schedule importance. That was also the year Rory McIlroy came to Hamilton and won by seven strokes. PGA tournaments can’t pay players to show up and play. They can, however, schedule corporate events the week of and pay millions for speaking appearances. Savvy investment.

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After missing two years following COVID, Rory, along with the world’s top golfers, returned in 2022 to combat the recently announced first wave of LIV signings, which also featured the return of a course located in Toronto proper for the first time since 1968. The crowds were great, the field was awesome, and Rory won again.

Nick Taylor’s famous putt to win in 2023, with Canadian players and Team Europe sitting beside the 18th green cheering him on, led to an epic on-green celebration as Taylor became the first Canadian to win since Pat Fletcher in 1954. It became a national highlight. Both at city courses, which allowed easy access to the course and created a Waste Management Open North vibe, albeit far more chill.

It returned to Hamilton in 2024, and, because of the Rory influence, the field started to take shape as an international all-star game of sorts. While the best American players generally skip the event to focus on the US Open following Jack’s event, most of the best worldwide PGA players started making the Canadian Open an annual destination.

Another unplanned positive has been the timing for college players to turn pro at this event. Morikawa did it in 2019. Aberg did it in 2023. Last year Luke Clanton and Gordon Sargent made their first starts as pros. This time around it’s University of Virginia standout Ben James making his debut. James secured his membership after finishing No. 1 in the final PGA Tour University rankings. The world’s top Am, Jackson Koivun, would also be north of the border, but turning pro this week would take him out of the US Open field. Since Koivun currently has better odds to win at Shinnecock than Aaron Rai and Min Woo Lee, it’s not surprising he’s maintaining his amateur status for one more week.

Unfortunately, as predicted, the vibe changed with the move to TPC Toronto last year. It worked so poorly that TPC Toronto is hosting again this year and next year. You see, despite the name, TPC Toronto isn’t in Toronto. It’s about an hour drive from downtown Toronto in a town called Alton. (No relation to the classic Real World Las Vegas and Challenge character). And that’s without traffic. A thing that doesn’t exist in Toronto.

Crowds were visibly down, even on a larger property than the city courses, and the parking situation frustrated most of those who showed up. This time around, the Canadian Open has to compete with the World Cup. Oh, the Yankees are in town too. Two major sporting draws in far more accessible locations may have ripple effects on the 115th of Canada’s national open. Frankly, at this point, calling it the “Canadian Open” is kind of a farce. It should really be changed to the “Greater Toronto Open.” This event has been hosted outside Southern Ontario just twice since 2005. Not that it would have saved the league, but LIV Golf could have had another Australia or South Africa on their hands if they’d simply decided to stage an event in Calgary.

Now, despite Rory taking a pass in 2026, the field remains quite stellar. After taking a pass on The Memorial, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa are listed in the field. Morikawa’s wife is due with their first baby (or had it; reporting has been soft on this), so he’s still likely a game-time decision. They’re joined by an international contingent of Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Aaron Rai, Robert MacIntyre, Alex Noren, Alex Fitzpatrick, Kristoffer Reitan, Nicolai Hojgaard, Rasmus Hojgaard, Shane Lowry, Jordan Smith, Matt Wallace, Harry Hall, Aldrich Potgieter, and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, and defending champ Ryan Fox.

Beyond them, Brooks Koepka, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Jacob Bridgeman, Michael Kim, Max Greyserman, Eric Cole, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Michael Thorbjornsen, John Keefer, Sahith Theegala, and Bud Cauley are getting passport stamps. Then, there’s the usual Canadian contingent of Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Mac Hughes, Taylor Pendrith, and Sudarshan Yellamaraju.

2026 CANADIAN OPEN KEY STATS

• Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
• Par 4s
• Putting 10-20
• Proximity 175+

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 Canadian Open Course

• TPC Toronto
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,389
• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix
• Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
• Bunkers: 48
• Water Hazards: 3

Yardage within 15 yards (on scorecard) of US Open next week at Shinnecock Hills.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 191 yards
-> Two under 160, two over 220

2025 Fox: His only bogey over the weekend on the Par 3 11th (he had a birdie over the week on each of the Par 3’s)

The two short ones play under par and the two longer ones over par … three do carry a birdie rate north of 19% (the long one bites back with a 7% double-or-worse rate)

Par 4’s (12): Average Distance – 459 yards
-> Two under 380, six over 480

2025 Fox: 5 bogeys through the first two rounds, 4 came on Par 4’s

The four toughest holes are all Par 4’s (three on the back: Holes 13-16-17)

Par 5’s (2): Average Distance – 562 yards

2025 Fox: 7 birdies on his 8 chances

The two easiest holes on the property, both with an eagle rate over 4% and a birdie rate over 48%

2026 Canadian Open Past Winners

• 2025: Ryan Fox (-18 playoff win over Sam Burns in a playoff) [TPC Toronto]
• 2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16, one clear of Ben Griffin) [Hamilton]
• 2023: Nick Taylor (-17, playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood) [Oakdale]
• 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19, two clear of Tony Finau) [St. Georges]
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, seven clear of Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson) [Hamilton]

Multi-time winners at this event since 1970: McIlroy (2019 and 2022), Jhonattan Vegas (2016-17), Jim Furyk (2006-07), Steve Jones (1989 and 1997), Nick Price (1991 and 1994), Greg Norman (1984 and 1992), Curtis Strange (1985 and 1987), Bruce Lietzke (1978 and 1982), Lee Trevino (1971, 1977, and 1979), and Tom Weiskopf (1973 and 1975)

Past Winner Notes

2025: Ryan Fox -18 (+6000)

None of the top 5 finishers were top 45 for the week in ARG

Fox was the only one who could marry elite APP play with non-disaster putting. Here are the SG:P ranks for the top 6 APP golfers of the week: 150th-89th-101st-121st-103rd- … and Fox, 24th

The top 3 on the final leaderboard all stayed in striking distance after Thursday (66 or better for each of them)

Fox didn’t shoot worse than a 66 for the week (66-66-64-66)

Benny An (T-6th) and Cam Champ (T-9th) were the only golfers to cash top-12 paychecks to card a round in the 70’s for the week.

2024: Robert MacIntyre (+8000)

– The top 3 putters for the week finished 1-3-7 on the final leaderboard, highlighted by Bobby Mac picking up 11.2 strokes with the flat stick

– Four of the top-6 in terms of driving distance cashed top-10 paychecks for the week

2023: Nick Taylor (+6000)

– The top 5 putters for the week finished 2-25-3-9-6. Justin Lower is the outlier there (25th), but that’s a pretty impressive finish for someone who lost 2.7 strokes from tee-to-green

– 9 of the top 11 finishers gained ground on the field in terms of proximity from 150-175 yards

2022: Rory McIlory (+900)

– The top 7 putters for the week finished 7-13-4-18-2-53-1 (Wyndham Clark finished T-7 thanks to the best putting week in the field — he bled 3.1 strokes on approach, 19th worst for the week)

– Four of the top 6 in driving distance finished with at least a share of 7th place (including Rory, who won despite losing five fairways for the week)

2025 First Round Leaders

• 61 – Thorbjorn Olesen (PM), Cristobal Del Solar (PM)

2024 First Round Leaders

• 62 – David Skinns (followed it up with 71-73 before a Sunday 67)
• 63 – Sam Burns (eight shots worse on Friday) and Sean O’Hair (his only round in the 60’s)

2023 First Round Leaders

• 67 – Four way tie that included three players (Corey Conners, Justin Lower, and Chesson Hadley) who failed to finish better than 20th for the week

*Nick Taylor was eight off the pace after Thursday (75) before shooting 67 or better in each of the final three rounds

2022 First Round Leaders

• 63 – Wyndham Clark (his best round by 5 strokes for the week)
• 64 – Matt Fitzpatrick (followed it up with 70-70 over the next two rounds)

2026 Canadian Open Notes

When TPC Toronto was played in July 2019 we got LONG DONG Paul Barjon winning at -25 followed by Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp at the top of the leaderboard. Hayden Buckley & Grayson Sigg, who are also in the field this week, finished inside the Top 10 as well.

It played as a Par 72 that year. Since the slight refurbishment and a switch to a Par 70 in preparation to host the Canadian Open, the final event of the PGA TOUR Americas season (Fortinet Cup Championship) has been the main event contested at TPC Toronto. The course in September 2024 looked totally different (mainly because of the massive wind gusts), and had a -5 winner. Sponson’s invite for this week, John Keefer, was T3 that week, fyi.

“In 2023, the course saw a full-scale renovation led by Ian Andrew – who worked with Carrick initially on all three Osprey Valley courses – to transform the course into a venue for high-level competition in preparation for the 2026 RBC Canadian Open.

“The renovation is all about how the course plays,” says Andrew. “Over the process of the renovation, we went from creating a public golf course where championships can be played, to creating a championship golf course that the public can play.”

With repositioning of every bunker on the course (along with reconstruction using the Billy Bunker System), narrowing of fairways at key landing areas, construction of new tee boxes to lengthen the course to a maximum of 7,445 yards, and introduction of shortgrass runoff areas around several greens, the course has been re-imagined as a test for the world’s best players.

Andrew says the focus of the renovation was on emphasizing tee-to-green play and providing opportunities for players to separate themselves from the field.

“Most of the bunkering is where players want to be hitting their approach shots from. You’re going to find some players that will play some safe shots away from trouble, but they can’t do that everywhere and still score,” says Andrew. “they’re going to need to play a little more aggressively in order to truly compete.”

The North course re-opened for play on May 9, 2024.

In September 2024, the course played host to the Fortinet Cup Championship (the season-ending event of the 2024 PGA TOUR Americas schedule) and provided a stout test. On a Tour where the 36-hole cut is regularly 6-under par or lower, the course played 2.137 strokes over par per round and saw a 36-hole cut at 3-over par, the highest all season on Tour, with a winning score of 5-under par by Will Cannon.”

As a test for the PGA TOUR, it wasn’t particularly demanding? It was easy pickings despite its length as a Par 70 the first time around. With nothing changed for 2026, expect more of the same in this iteration.

Unfortunately, there wasn’t one glaring skill set that separated the leaderboard. Ryan Fox won with amazing iron play, good putting and respectable driving and chipping. Sam Burns followed the same strategy. Kevin Yu and Cameron Young did it all with an amazing driving/putting combo, while Matt McCarty was simply all putting. Basically, cobble together a spike T2G through any means necessary, and match it with good to great putting. The winning score is going to be too low to cover up a shoddy putting effort. Very similar to the Myrtle Beach Classic, actually. Take a look at all the T2G leaders a year ago who didn’t have red under their putting numbers…

From my source who played TPC Toronto in the last two weeks and got the scoop…

“I know they were prepping for like a firm fast looking for the first bounce type course, running fairways probably faders who can stop the ball on command somewhat of like type of Ryan Fox last year, of course, that ball flight is perfect for Osprey Valley, but with a little bit of rain in the forecast throughout this week it’s going to be a mix of balancing spin control if that place gets a little soft because there’s little unique runoffs and hidden pin locations. It’s also supposed to be really hot so I don’t know if that’s gonna keep the rain away and then it will be even firmer and faster but the first hop on the greens are really springy. Distance control with your iron play is going to be the huge key of the week there. It will be interesting to see what weather hits, though, because that will completely change kind of how the course plays.”

2026 Canadian Open Picks

Michael Brennan — He’ll be among the leaders with the driver; this we know. And he’s started to put together some solid approach and putting weeks. He came close at Colonial; he can get even closer here.

Max Greyserman — Things were trending upward for Greyserman over the last month until he headed to the Fort Worth region for the Charles Schwab. After improving his finish in four consecutive starts, beating the field in driving and approach each time, he posted one of the ten worst rounds of his career to open at Colonial. Happens. It doesn’t erase his progress, and he was able to post those quality results without igniting his putter. There’s a chance he’s simply not good on the greens anymore, but it’s far more likely that one of the best putters of the last two years can snap out of his slump and pair a spike putting week with his ball striking.

2026 WORLD CUP

If you missed it (weird), Cust joined me in the studio with our soccer guests to make picks for the World Cup. I thought the show was tons of fun and, if nothing else, you can just fade Cust’s picks and win

2026 World Cup Picks, Mega Preview | Group Best Bets, Winner Predictions | Cust Corner: Noodles