HomeGolf Betting2026 PLAYERS Championship Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 PLAYERS Championship Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo

2 months ago

2 months ago

2026 PLAYERS Championship Picks, Rankings, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 PLAYERS Championship Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 Genesis Invitational Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.

WATCH: PLAYERS Championship 2026 Picks | Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown

2026 PLAYERS Championship Field

  • Field: 121 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
  • First Tee: Thursday, March 12
  • Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy

After years of emotions ranging from mild frustration to general ambivalence, I’ve come to quite like THE PLAYERS Championship. Most of that had to do with its move from May to March. The tournament has carved out a great spot on the schedule preceding all four Major championships. It’s the premier PGA Tour tournament, elevated well above all signature events and Playoffs, and sets the table for Major Season starting in a month. It only does itself a disservice attempting to brand itself as the “Fifth Major.” It’s already one of the best tournaments in golf. It doesn’t need the sports equivalent of a LinkedIn job title inflation.

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Since THE PLAYERS (ALWAYS ALL CAPS, per them), at its core, is a made-for-TV event, the viewing experience is the best we’re going to get all year. All of the internet golf-bubble quibbling about never getting to see shots shouldn’t be an issue this week. There are cameras set up at every hole and following every group; through ESPN+, you can MacGyver your own version of Green Zone (™) where you can follow your bets, DraftKings lineups, or favorite players. It’s easy.

Get Full Access to PGA Stats, Customizable Data, Simulations, H2H Analyzers, Betting Tools, Fantasy Projections, and more for just $1 this week for THE PLAYERS Championship at Betsperts Golf. Just use the code “SAWGRASS.”

Get the Rabbit Hole for $1 this week with code “SAWGRASS.”

The cost and complicated logistics associated with providing this sort of broadcast are extreme, but if the PGA TOUR was able to magically find almost a billion dollars to give to the players as de facto appearance fees over the past few years, then excuses about trying to do this type of full coverage at other events fall short. The ESPN+ coverage isn’t anything special. But compared to what we used to get, basically three cameras and a volunteer with binoculars, this feels like the Apollo program.

One of the lasting legacies of the original XFL is the number of production tricks the NFL later adopted to improve broadcasts. The PGA still has time to take notes from the Outlaw Tour and just have a guy with an iPhone stream following groups around. Assuming, of course, the guy holding the phone actually showed up and wasn’t too hungover to press record.

THE PLAYERS field has been compressed from 144 to 121 players in 2026. Some say a move to strengthen the field and preserve daylight. But what this article presupposes is: What if it’s only to save money on the camera budget?

Tune into PME PLAYERS CUT SWEAT LIVE on Friday Afternoon (Sub here if you want to hang with us while the field is finishing Friday).

Rory McIlroy Back Injury

THE PLAYERS is all about chaos, so why not kick the week off with the defending champion suffering a back injury?

Rory woke up Saturday morning, preparing for round three of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, went to the gym as any finely tuned athlete would before a round… and his back immediately betrayed him. According to Rory, “I felt a small twinge in my back. As I started hitting balls on the range before the round, the pain worsened, developing into muscle spasms in my lower back. Unfortunately, I’m not able to continue and have to withdraw.”

Anyone who has ever experienced back spasms knows exactly what that feels like. One minute you’re fine, the next minute you’re walking around like someone just unplugged your spine. The good news? Rory is Rory: Access to every medical treatment known to mankind, with enough to potentially recover before Thursday.

Bad news? This is golf, and injury reporting isn’t exactly… proficient. Unless Rory tells us his status, we’re probably just going to have to guess.

I expect him to play, but as you may have noticed with my picks, I’m not exactly correct all that often.

With far less fanfare, Austin Smotherman also withdrew Saturday at Bay Hill due to a back injury. This doesn’t sound overly important, but at a pure second shot golf course, Smotherman is third on the season in SG: APP/Round behind Rory and Si Woo Kim.

All Stats & Tool Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

Much to the chagrin of Fantasy players, Jake Knapp pulled out of the API before he hit a shot, but after the tournament started, leaving everyone high and dry with a big fat ZERO across various platforms. It’s rumored to be an illness that should leave Knapp fine to play at Sawgrass.

Justin Thomas (Back) and Sungjae Im (Wrist) both returned to play for the first time this year at Bay Hill. Predictably, it went very poorly for the duo…

One positive for both was their ball speeds. Thomas averaged 176 mph, which is completely in line with his five-year average. While Sungjae’s 175 mph would actually be the highest number of his career. It’s unknowable how long it is going to take them to return to form and knock off the rust, but mechanically, they both seem closer than their performance may indicate.

Scottie Scheffler Iron Deficiency

Scottie Scheffler enters the week as the benchmark player in the field, more so now with a Rory injury. But is he suffering from anemia? Because there’s a serious lack of iron in his system right now. Get this man some Feosol.

His strokes gained numbers remain elite, and his tee-to-green performance continues to set the standard across the TOUR. Just not quite at the same level as the last three years. While still excellent across the board, his once dominant iron play has started to become very mortal.

On the year, Scheffler only ranks 47th in SG: APP. Last year, he was number one in the metric at +1.32 SG: APP/Round. That was +0.47 SG: APP/Round better than No. 2 Viktor Hovland. In 2026, he’s only gaining +0.25 SG: APP/Round.

SG: APP/RD Jan 1-Dec 31 2025

SG: APP/RD Jan 1-Mar 1 2026

Scottie’s results have been masked by an uptick in driving numbers and such a Great Leap Forward in chipping and putting that the most staunch Maoists are taking notice.

Here’s the conundrum: If this were any other player, we’d laugh about how regression is going to slap down these results soon enough. But since it’s Scottie Scheffler, I, like most, am still pensive to make that claim. Mainly, because he’s been playing God-Tier golf for three years; treating this like the new-normal instead of a slump seems premature.

Doesn’t mean he won’t remain an elite iron player. He will. But Scottie’s superpower was being consistently so much better than the other elite ball strikers. He may still be the best, just not by the same margin. Or I’ve put way too much thought into just over two months of data. But you notice it when you watch him. The impact doesn’t sound the same off the club, the ball isn’t hole high every time, and he’s turning and making Spieth gestures to Ted Scott an awful lot.

Look, it’s likely a slump (and we know Scheffler isn’t going to use Mark Grace’s cure for that), but reaching his peak approach performance consistency from 2023-2025, we could be on the downside of that and closer to 2022. A year where he still won four times, including The Masters, but also missed three cuts.

All Stats & Tool Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

2026 PLAYERS Championship Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Recent Form
  • Par 4s Gained
  • SG: OTT (Mixed & Less Than Driver Courses)

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 PLAYERS Championship Course

  • TPC Sawgrass
  • Yardage: 7,352
  • Par: 72
  • Greens: Poa Trivialis
  • Bunkers: 92
  • Holes Water is in Play: 17
  • Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
  • Average Fairway Widths: 28 yards

Sawgrass Changes Made Last Year

  • New tournament tee on No. 2 added 15 yards.
  • Re-established the iconic tree on No. 6 tee, while adding 15 yards (original tree was lost in 2014).
  • New tee complex on No. 11 added 15 yards.
  • Stronger, deeper, and dramatic moguls with additions of palms, oaks, and native grasses in the right rough on No. 14.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 185 yards

  • Four of the five highest par rates on the course (the two on the front have a sub 12% birdie rate)
  • McIlroy: 3 bogeys against just 1 birdie for the week

Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 433 yards

  • The two toughest holes are back-9 Par 4’s (Holes 14 and 18), both carrying a double-or-worse rate north of 4%
  • McIlroy: Birdied Hole #1 twice and Hole #18 in each of the first three days

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 567 yards

  • Four of the five easiest holes, three have an eagle rate of 1.9% or better.
  • McIlroy: Played #2 at 5-under, played the other three at 3-under combined

DraftKings Showdown Trends

There will likely be an influx of casual players for this event, so it’s a good time to leverage this angle. Hole 18 is the toughest on the course (2.5x more likely to bogey than to birdie), making a back-to-front build a tough sell. If you can get that hole (462-yard Par 4), holes 1-2 are very gettable, but I prefer front-to-back.

Starting on one gets access to two of the five easiest holes (9 and 11, both Par 5’s), and while No. 10 isn’t easy, a 15.3% birdie rate is much higher than the 10% birdie rate for No. 18. Scheffler strung 3+ birdies together in holes 8-11 twice in 2023. (He birdied Hole 9 every round, Hole 8 twice, Hole 10 twice, and Hole 11 twice).

2026 PLAYERS Championship Past Winners

In March

In May

2025: Rory McIlroy (+1400, third favorite) beat JJ Spaun in a playoff

  • Rory wins despite finishing 9th worst in Fairways Gained
  • Windy conditions on the weekend … Rory’s 68 on Sunday was 4 better than Spaun and tied for the fifth best on the course that day

2024: Scottie Scheffler (+550, favorite) beat Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, and Brian Harman by 1

  • The top 5 putters for the week all finished inside the top 12 for the week (Clark and Harman both in that mix)
  • 11 of the top 12 finishers gained on APP from 100-125 yards

2023: Scottie Scheffler (+1000, third favorite) beat Tyrrell Hatton by 5

  • Finishing position for the top 4 approach players for the week (starting with the best APP): 13th-3rd-2nd-1st
  • 21 of the top 26 finishers gained on the field on Par 3’s

2022: Cam Smith (+3000, ninth favorite) beat Anirban Lahiri by 1

  • Smith gained 11.5 strokes putting (2.4 clear of anyone else) to offset -5.2 OTT
  • The top 4 finishers were a plus with the putter from 5-10 AND 10-15 feet (reasonably average outside of that)

2021: Justin Thomas (+1800, fourth favorite) beat Lee Westwood by 1

  • Matt Fitzpatrick was the only Top 20 finisher to lose strokes on APP
  • 5 of the top 7 finishers gained Prox from 150-175 AND 200+

2019: Rory McIlroy (+1200, favorite) Beat Jim Furyk by 1

  • Rory led after the cut with a Friday 65 and did just enough on Sunday (he shot 70, the three guys under him were all at least 3 shots better)
  • Each of the top-7 finishers gained proximity in either the 175-200 yard or the 200+ yard bucket (McIlroy won by gaining in both)
  • Ryan Moore was the only top-25 finisher to lose Good Drives on the field (Corey Conners was the best in the field for the week at +9.3)
  • Dustin Johnson was the only top-15 finisher to lose strokes putting (six of those golfers gained over four strokes)

Players Championship Winner Lead In Form

2025: Rory McIlroy won the Pebble Beach Signature event in February and had no finish worse than T17 in any of his four worldwide starts to begin the year. Previous PLAYERS: T19/CUT

2024: Scottie Scheffler won the week previous at Bay Hill and had Top 10 finishes in five of his six starts to begin the year. Previous PLAYERS: Win/55th.

2023: Scottie Scheffler had a win and a Top 12 finish in all of this five starts previous in the year. Previous PLAYERS: 55th/MC

2022: Cam Smith won the opening event of 2022 at Kapalua and added another Top 5 finish at the Saudi International prior to his victory. Previous PLAYERS: 17th/56th

2021: Justin Thomas posted three Top 15 finishes in five 2021 starts. His best result was 3rd at the Tournament of Champions. Previous PLAYERS: 35th/11th

2019: Rory McIlroy was Top 6 in 5 straight events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: MC/35th

2018: Webb Simpson was Top 21 in 4 straight events prior to the win (he already had 3 Top 5 finishes on his resume for the season). Previous PLAYERS: 16th/66th

2017: Si Woo Kim, after WD’s and missed cuts cluttering his early-season results, did post a T-22 finish in the lead in the event. Previous PLAYERS: T23

2016: Jason Day was Top 10 in 3 of 4 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: MC/T19

2026 PLAYERS Championship First Round Leaders

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2026 PLAYERS Championship Notes

Although it’s been more than a lustrum since THE PLAYERS moved from May to March, it never hurts to reinforce some of the rules:

With water in play on every hole and 92 bunkers scattered across the course, there’s a higher degree of variance at TPC Sawgrass than at almost any course. Old School PGA National, 3M, and maybe The Open are really the only rivals.

That’s not even factoring in the wind gusts or the lack of defined skill sets required to contend, outside of “Be Scottie Scheffler”. A lot of courses are so long that a lack of distance off the tee ups the difficulty level for shorter smackers. Not TPC Sawgrass. Yes, distance is always advantageous on the Par 5s and the longer Par 4s… if you’re not in the water. But even then, we witnessed the game’s most prolific bomber, Bryson DeChambeau, nickel and dime at Sawgrass in 2021, taking a course management method with irons off the tee to ensure he found the short grass. Since distance plays less of a factor at Sawgrass than most PGA TOUR courses, the entire field theoretically has an opportunity to contend.

Strangely, after years of these leaderboards screaming FLORIDA MAN for its insanity, they’ve normalized since the move to March from May. Each of the winners has been a Major champion. Cam Smith was the only non-Major winner at the time of his win, but would drink from the Claret Jug later that year.

Stacked fields like this, and major championships, require you to embrace game theory in Fantasy Games over instincts, as there’s so little difference between the players in each range. We can debate who is better between Sam Burns and Shane Lowry all we want, but it’s probably smarter to admit they have about the same probability to actually win this week.

The tiny greens at TPC Sawgrass are a regular occurrence at Pete Dye-designed courses. It’s why Strokes Gained: Around The Green (0.35/round) has been just as important as Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (0.39/round) for the Top 10 finishers over the past five years. For reference, Strokes Gained: Approach has been almost three times more important to the Top 10 finishers.

Pete Dye Courses on the PGA TOUR

  • TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Championship)
  • Harbour Town Links (RBC Heritage)
  • TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)
  • TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic)
  • Austin Country Club (2016-2023 Match Play)
  • TPC Stadium Course at La Quinta (American Express)

The best players on Dye courses since the beginning of the 2024 season, per round, have been…

All Stats & Tool Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

Beyond Dye courses, there was a through line of success between the Wyndham Championship and THE PLAYERS. Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Davis Love III, and Si WOO Kim have all won at Sedgefield CC in the past decade, and those five have also claimed a win at Sawgrass in their careers. Events like the Wyndham, Sony Open, and Heritage are prime spots to identify sleepers from the bottom of the list, as they generally do not see an influx of the top-tier talent. That too has shifted since the move to March.

If you’re searching for higher-end events, which have correlated more with the move to March, look at TPC Southwind. A similar field and a massive amount of water lurk around the grounds. Justin Thomas has won that event. Hideki won with Xander and Scheffler inside the top four in 2024. THE PLAYERS that year, Scheffler won with Xander and Hideki inside the Top 6. Last year, JJ Spaun completed the double, losing in a playoff at both events. Lucas Glover won at Southwind in 2023, with Rory and Conners inside the Top 6. All three were inside the Top 6 in the 2025 Players Championship.

Phoenix is another spot to seek out if you’re looking for more comps. Players have commented on the similar green types being the same to read; they’re just faster at Sawgrass. Last year’s leaderboard featured three previous winners of the Valero Texas Open inside the Top 6 (JJ Spaun 2nd, Akshay Bhatia T3, Corey Conners T6). Not sure if there’s anything there, or it was an outlier because of the winds at Sawgrass in 2025.

Fortunately, the Rabbit Hole makes it easy to find which players have done the best at the course with high water danger over the last two years…

All Stats & Tool Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf

As with most courses, Strokes Gained: Approach will likely be the deciding factor for the week. Generate that many birdie opportunities, and eventually, you’ll start making some of them. Plus, a great approach game generally means you’re spending less time chipping or taking the Nestea Plunge at Sawgrass.

Strokes Gained: Approach by THE PLAYERS Championship winner

  • 2025: McIlroy +7.77 (5th)
  • 2024: Scheffler +6.4 (7th)
  • 2023: Scheffler +7.6 (4th)
  • 2022: Smith +6.7 (5th)
  • 2021: Thomas +6.5 (5th)
  • 2019: Rory +6.5 (6th)
  • 2018: Simpson -0.7 (92nd)
  • 2017 Si WOOOOO +4.1 (16th)
  • 2016: Day +5.6 (9th)
  • 2015: Fowler +6.3 (3rd)
  • 2014: Kaymer +6.0 (4th)
  • 2013: Woods +8.0 (2nd)
  • 2012: Kuchar +4.8 (5th)

2026 PLAYERS Championship Weather

If you have any familiarity with this tournament, you know not to invest too much money or finalize picks before getting the tee times and consulting the weather. I’ve been correct in predicting when the wind is going to hit recently. My implementation…

NOT GREAT, BOB!!!

Nothing like nailing THE PLAYERS weather in 2022, only to see them delay action and force all the guys I rostered into the worst conditions of the year. Fun stuff watching your picks, yuck it up on the 17th tee box, hitting ball after ball into the water.

There’s never going to be a definitive answer, and as we’ve seen, even when one wave appears to possess an advantage. Guys play poorly in good conditions and well in bad conditions all the time. You can decide what’s best for you, and I think that strategy is dependent on how many lineups you’re playing and the size of the contests. Generally, since I’ve seen the weather advantage flip so many times, lean harder into the wave that has the projected advantage, but don’t be afraid to commit a lesser percentage of your lineups to the opposite stack, either. If you’re wrong, which is probably the most predictable outcome this week, then you’ll still have outs with a far more narrow path to the top since it’s the unpopular side.

Fortunately, despite still being days away, the weather looks fairly friendly for Sawgrass.

WIND TOWER: Palm Valley, ICWW

2026 PLAYERS Championship Picks

Si Woo Kim — Consistency isn’t necessarily a word used to describe Si Woo, but he’s morphed into a brand new player since the start of last year’s FedEx Cup. Kim has played 11 PGA events in that time, hasn’t missed a cut, and has finished in the Top 20 in eight of those starts. Hell, he showed up to the Australian Open and came 3rd in December.

For the year, he’s second to only McIlroy in SG: APP/Round and is currently posting career highs in driving numbers, hitting over 70% of his fairways. Now, there is one glaring issue: He can’t putt. That too has been quite consistent, to his credit. Fortunately, if there’s one metric that can swing wildly in a random week, it’s putting. In the past five years at Sawgrass, Si Woo has gained on the greens twice and lost three times. Gaining as much as +4.77 SG: PUTT in 2024, while losing -2.50 in the years surrounding it. His tee-to-green is currently among the elite players on TOUR, so I’ll take my chances he can luck into a hot putting week.

Sepp Straka — I’ve been on him every week this season, so don’t see why I’d stop now, as his ball striking has been amazing outside of the weekend at Riviera. The Austrian has contended every time he’s putted decently this year, too. He’s won on a Dye design with Poa Trivialis greens (2025 AMEX) and at a waterlogged, Florida course demanding precision off the tee (2022 Honda Classic). Plus, Straka’s finished in the Top 20 three of the past four years at Sawgrass and enters with high-end, albeit inconsistent results.

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