2026 Players Championship Picks, Bets, Weather, DFS Notes, Underdog | Fantasy Golf Picks
Pat Mayo
2 months ago
2026 PLAYERS Championship CHEATSHEET
Wednesday at 8pm ET I’ll taking any questions you may have and run through the latest news. See ya there.
LIVE at 8pm ET: Players Q&A 🔴 Betting, Fantasy Golf Questions
2026 PLAYERS Championship Quick Bets
WINNER
- Tommy Fleetwood +4000 (3 Places)
- Si Woo Kim +4500 (3 Places)
- Sepp Straka +6000 (5 Places)
- Chris Gotterup +7500 (3 Places)
- Kurt Kitayama +9000 (3 Places)
- Nicolai Hojgaard +14000 (3 Places)
SUBSCRIBE FREE TO PME NEWSLETTER FOR EXTRA INFO & BREAKING NEWS
LONGSHOTS (Playing Mainly for the Top 10. More Below)
- Michael Kim +17500 (10 Places)
- Nico Echavarria +17500 (10 Places)
- Lucas Glover +17500 (10 Places)
FIRST ROUND LEADER
- Justin Rose +6000
- Harry Hall +6000
- Taylor Pendrith +8000
- Haotong Li +9000
- Tom Hoge +12500
- Lucas Glover +12500
LIV
- Wolff +9000 (3 Places)
Top 40 Parlay (Including Ties)
- Conners/Pendrith/Dahmen/M. Kim/Hisatsune +6400
MAKE THE CUT
If you’re looking for the Top 3/5/10 markets, they’re available at Bet365 (maybe BetRivers too, I don’t have access there, but it appears they offer similar markets). I took the long shots in the 10 Place markets, as I explained on the Monday show, because the 10 Place odds (which are 1/5 of the outright odds) were more than double what the Top 10 would pay. So I opted into this market because you can bet the same amount of money and win more on a Top 10 finish, while still having the added out of the outright win with the same stake — as implausible as that may be. And I’m sticking with these Top 3 markets. They’ve bailed me out big time with Rory, Smotherman, Ludvig, and Blanchet over the past three weeks. Instead of walking away with my usual $0 for a runner-up, I’ve been piling up profitable weeks.
Tommy Fleetwood — It came down to a choice between Tommy, Rory, and Xander for me, and I’m rolling with Fleetwood. Famous last words. Devotees will remember I did a similar thing last year at THE PLAYERS when the final choice came down to Rory vs. the Morikawa/Xander combo pack. As someone who lost a lot of money at Sawgrass a year ago, guess which side I ended up picking. Despite some weekend struggles at Bay Hill, Fleetwood is just good across the board. I’ll take him in any conditions, and if the course really is playing tougher than in previous years, that probably favors Fleetwood even more. And honestly, there may not be a betting market ever designed more specifically for Tommy Fleetwood than the Top 3 placement market.
Si Woo Kim — Consistency isn’t usually the word used to describe Si Woo, but he’s morphed into a different player since the start of the FedExCup Playoffs last year. Kim has played 11 PGA Tour events in that span, hasn’t missed a cut, and finished Top 20 in eight of those starts. For the year, he’s second only to McIlroy in SG: APP per round and is currently posting career highs in his driving numbers, hitting over 70% of his fairways in 2026. Now there is one glaring issue: he can’t putt. That part has remained extremely consistent. Fortunately, if there’s one metric that can swing wildly in a random week, it’s putting. Over the past five years at Sawgrass, Si Woo has gained strokes putting twice and lost three times — gaining as much as +4.77 SG:PUTT in 2024 while losing -2.50 in the surrounding years. His tee-to-green game is currently among the elite players on Tour, so I’ll take my chances he can luck into a hot putting week. If you can’t get the Top 3 boost at Bet365, may I suggest the PME Exclusive BOOST at Coolbet for WIN ONLY at +2550. That’s available for anyone in Canada, outside Ontario.
Sepp Straka — I’ve been on him every week this season, so I don’t see why I’d stop now. His ball striking has been excellent outside of the weekend at Riviera. He’s contended for a win every time he’s putted decently this year as well. He’s already won on a Dye design with Poa Trivialis greens (2025 AMEX) and at a water-logged Florida course demanding precision off the tee (2022 Honda Classic). Straka has finished Top 20 in three of the past four years at Sawgrass and enters with high-end, consistent results.
2026 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT
- Players Championship 2026 Final Bets, One & Done | Insights From Sawgrass, Tiger Woods Stories
- The PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Picks, Bets, One and Done + ANDERCURSED
- The PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP DraftKings Picks
- The PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown
- The PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Player by Player Breakdown
Chris Gotterup — Obviously better suited for longer courses where his massive distance advantage can really matter. Yet when I see wind in the forecast, Gotterup has become a must-click. He showed it last year in Scotland, then again the following week at The Open, and again in blustery conditions at the shorter Sony Open. It’s a bit worrisome that his approach play has been trending down since his early-season surge, but his T2G numbers for the year still rank 4th among all players in the field.
Kurt Kitayama — Both of his wins have come at water-logged courses (PGA National and TPC Twin Cities), and he enters Sawgrass with fiery irons and — for once — a hot putter. On the DP World Tour he excelled in windier, coastal conditions, and he’s shown a real jump in his driving numbers in 2026. It’s only 23 measured rounds, but his accuracy is way up compared to every previous season on Tour. I don’t need that to hold all season — just four more rounds.
Nicolai Højgaard — One down week won’t throw me off Nicolai. He remains one of the six best ball strikers of 2026 and is one of just seven players averaging over +1.50 SG: TOTAL per round. Højgaard is the only player among that group you can actually find down the odds board.
First Round Leaders
I took two players who have posted low Sawgrass rounds in the past (Hoge, Glover), one who killed it Ball Striking at Bay Hill, but couldn’t putt (Pendrith) and mixed them with the longer odds players in the SPIKE ROUND model I built in the Rabbit Hole. GOOD NEWS, the Rabbit Hole $1 for the week special is still available!
Get the Rabbit Hole for $1 this week with code “SAWGRASS”
2026 Players Championship WEATHER
Wind, rain, towering gusts; it’s all here the first two days. If you squint hard enough you can convince yourself there’s a massive AM/PM advantage. And while that could be true, I’ve been burned enough by thinking the weather will be one way at this tournament only to watch my guys get blown off the course.
It does appear Friday afternoon will get the best of the conditions, because those early Thursday projected gusts are no joke, but with rain potentially popping up on both days, there’s a chance the late wave Thursday will get to finish in damper conditions on Friday and into the less windy wave, while the PM guys on Friday may not finish or get delayed.
For betting purposes, I didn’t pay it any mind. I went with who I liked and what the numbers told me. For Draftkings, I made 80 lineups, 20 AM/PM and 20 PM/AM and the rest mixed. We’ve seen a clear advantage go to one of the tee splits enough at this course to play it both ways and hope to luck into a big advantage.
TLDR: The AM/PM split has a slight advantage with great conditions Friday afternoon but that could get pushed by rain.
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP TEE TIMES
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS POOL
I’ve been working with Fanball to create a simple version of picks, much like the old office pools that float around during Masters week. We’re trying it out with a 5×5 game this week. It has a limited capacity this week as a trial run, but it’s designed so even your dad or friends with casual interest can make picks easily. Play in it and send your feedback, as I want to blow it out for the Masters.
Rules are easy: $20 for an entry, and you choose 5 players within the $15 you get to spend on the group of five players. Get it on the Fanball site or inside the Fanball app.
PS: You can make MAYO CUP One and Done picks in the Fanball app as well.
PLAY IN PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS POOL
2026 Players Championhsip DRAFTKINGS
As mentioned, I allocated 50% of my lineups to stacking each of the waves. Additionally, I played a ton of Rory. He was at Sawgrass Wednesday hitting balls on the range. I choose to believe he’s going to be fine, and I’m willing to burn a lot of lineups on that belief. If I’m wrong, whatever. I’m wrong all the time anyway. We have Rory projected sub-15% at the moment (although that could change if glowing reports come out about his health Wednesday evening, which I’ll cover on the LIVE CHAT if anything comes up).
Basically, all the players you’d expect to be popular are: Morikawa, Ludvig, Si Woo, Cam Young, Henley, Min Woo, Viktor, and Knapp. Me, Tambo, and Blickle talked about how to use these players and actually retain leverage in your lineups on the DK show this week, plus different ways to build Scheffler lineups to get a bit different.
The Scheffler ownership, I think, has a wide range of outcomes. It’s easier to build with Scheffler this week if you don’t care about the chalky 9K guys—just don’t fall into the trap of building the same Scheffler lineups as everyone else. I found this tough when I did Scheffler AM-only stacks. It put more Cauley, Grillo, Pendrith, Harman, and Haotong in my life than I was expecting.
THIS WEEK ONLY you can get access to the Rabbit Hole (Which includes DFS optimizer, Tounrament Simulations, Player Projections, Ownership, H2H Pricing Sims) along with all the customizable data for just $1. Just use code “SAWGRASS”
Get the Rabbit Hole for $1 this week with code “SAWGRASS”
Players Championship Underdog THURSDAY
I like Gotterup in the wind, and if nothing else, Noren knows two things: Hitting Fairways and playing in windy conditions. There’s a FREE PICK available to add for new Underdog players and a 30% BOOST in the lobby for PGA only. Blickle and I have been picking spots on Underdog the past few weeks should a huge advantage emerge, so it’s best to have an account gtg if that happens this week.
TAIL OR FADE + Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
Now, the best way to win on Underdog hasn’t changed. In fact, it’s the same at anywhere where you make picks. Take adavntage of the bonuses. Signing up at Underdog gets you a deposit bonus of up to $1000 and you’ll get $75 instantly when you play a $5 Pick’em entry.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
TOMORROW — NFL IS BACK on The PME. A full recap of everything that happened with trades and Free Agency. BE THERE!!!!!