Golf Betting2026 PGA Underdog Best Ball Draft Strategy and Players to Target and Fades

2026 PGA Underdog Best Ball Draft Strategy and Players to Target and Fades

Pat Mayo

5 months ago

2026 UNDERDOG PGA BEST BALL STRATEGY & TARGETS

The 2026 Underdog PGA Best Ball lobbies are open — and if you’re drafting like it’s 2025, you’re already behind. Pat Mayo and Byron Lindeque run through the changes in rules for the new season and talk through their strategy and players to target for Underdog PGA Best Ball Drafts.

Major Rule & Format Changes

Sentry Tournament Cancelled in 2026

Removes the biggest scoring edge from last year.
You can no longer load up on an easy Kapalua birdie-fest and cruise through Round 1.

Only 2 Signature Events in the First 7 Tournaments

Pebble Beach (AT&T)
Genesis Invitational
The other 5 are regular events, making non-elite volume extremely important early.

Rosters Expanded: From 10 Players to 12 Players per team

Allows you to effectively draft two schedules
Signature-event players (FedEx Cup Top 50 / OWGR qualifiers)
Non-signature grinders who play every week

Scoring Change: Finishing Position Only

No more score-to-par points.
Tough courses no longer punish you… as much.

Draft MORE

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2026 PGA Underdog Best Ball Draft Construction Blueprint

Early rounds: Hybrid studs who play early and are in all signature events and Majors
Middle rounds: AON Next 10 & high-volume grinders to maximize early-season events.
Late rounds: Players fighting for status who must tee it up weekly

Prioritize “Hybrid” Players

The most valuable players:

Play both regular events AND signature events
Are locked into majors/signatures all season

Michael Kim has confirmed with me he’s playing six events to start the year, which makes him one of the most valuable players in the draft. His current ADP is 21.5 in early drafts, and he really should be drafted inside the Top 10 as he’s in every signature event, and his world ranking should get him into at least The Masters and the PGA Championship.

Beyond Kim, players who qualified through the AON Next 10 are in the first two signature events, yet will likely play most of the early-season events to try to stack up points to get into the rest of the season events and Majors. Expect to see a lot of Max Greyserman, Nico Echavarria, Chris Kirk, Max McGreevy, and Rico Hoey early in the year.

The other five come with more strings attached: Sami Valimaki, Garrick Higgo, Aldrich Potgieter, Aaron Rai, and Min Woo Lee all began on the DP World Tour, so there’s a chance they may start their years in the Middle East for the two Dubai tournaments, which don’t count for the PGA Best Ball scoring. Hopefully, we’ll get more clarification as the season approaches. Plus, there are still rumblings that Potgieter and Higgo may jump to LIV. We saw Rahm and Hatton do that in January two years ago.

VOLUME WINS EARLY

Most important goal: maximize starts in the first 7 events.
The best teams will have multiple golfers playing 5–7 times in Round 1.

Round 1 Tournaments

Sony Open
American Express (AMEX)
Farmers Insurance Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Pebble Beach (Signature Event)
Genesis Invitational (Signature Event)
Cognizant Classic

You’d think this doesn’t need to be pointed out — but after seeing how people drafted a year ago and, again, how they’re going about it early this year — you can’t win Round 4 if you don’t advance from Round 1. Seems simple, people forget. And Round 1 is the only segment we can (kind of) control. The best draft strategy is to simply load up to advance and hope everything breaks your way. It’s easier to balance your squads this season with the roster expansion from 10 to 12 golfers.

Of course, Scottie is going to be the first player drafted, as he should be, but you’ll probably only get four starts from him in Round 1, at best. He’ll play both signature events and maybe AMEX and Phoenix, based on his history.

I’m surprised to see Patrick Cantlay going so low (29.7). Like Scottie, Cantlay almost always plays the AMEX and Phoenix events and has an excellent track record at both. Unless you’re really convinced Sam Burns (13.8) is simply way better than Cantlay, Cantlay is just Burns, but two rounds later.

There’s also a weird caveat in the Signature Event rules to get extra people into the field: PGA Tour members in the top 30 OWGR will earn entry. I can’t recall this ever being used in the past, but there are a few players who can take advantage of this, the biggest being Michael Brennan (ADP 51.7). Brennan won in Utah, so he’s in the PLAYERS and PGA Championship (and will be in The Masters for being inside the Top 50 OWGR at the end of the year), but isn’t qualified for any signature events. Currently No. 35 in the world, Brennan will likely play a ton early in the season to boost his ranking and get into Pebble Beach and Riviera. Wyndham Clark (No. 41; ADP 55.6), John Keefer (No. 47; ADP 62.4), and Billy Horschel (No. 48; ADP 71.7) are others who can gain access to signature events this way.

Marco Penge (No. 29; ADP 54.1), Kristoffer Reitan (No. 31; ADP 68.8), and Rasmus Hojgaard (No. 40; ADP 70.4) can also all get in this way, but it’s very unlikely we see them before Pebble Beach, regardless.

Additionally, Jordan Spieth (ADP 31.2) isn’t qualified for the Signature events, but is likely to receive sponsors’ invites to both Pebble and Riviera. He’s already talked about playing more to earn his way into those events without needing the invites, so he, like those others, may play a bunch early in the season and pile up volume.

Si Woo Kim is not only not going to LIV, but he’s also already committed to the Sony Open! And he historically plays in the AMEX and Phoenix as well, along with the signature events. Five starts is very likely for Kim. Sungjae usually follows a similar path.

Although circumstances and status have changed for some of these players, using the Rabbit Hole, these are the players who have played the most rounds in the first four tournaments the past two years (Sony, AMEX, Farmers, Phoenix). I wouldn’t anticipate much change for most of these players, since they’ve always made these events part of their schedules. Some of the usual, larger names may skip the Sony Open since they won’t already be in Hawaii for The Sentry this year.

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Players to Avoid

There are some players to cross off immediately, too. Do NOT draft any LIV players. They only play four times in this contest.

Rory McIlroy and some of the higher-end European players fall think same bucket: Tommy Fleetwood, Robert Macintyre, Justin Rose, Alex Noren, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg — you can advance with them, but, like those other DP World Tour players in the AON Next 10, we may not see them stateside until the first signature event at Pebble Beach. So, some may only have a max of two starts in round one. It wasn’t as penal a year ago when most of these players got the freebee of Kapalua to pile up points before they took off to Dubai.

Again, it’s no guarantee these guys go any player on the DP World Tour (although Rory and Fleetwood almost always do), so I’ll keep updating my rankings (after I release them) the moment there is confirmation on their statuses.

Looking at the early 2026 PGA Underdog Best Ball Draft, all these guys are being overdrafted by ADP: Rory (6.2), Aberg (7.2), Fleetwood (9.8), Rai (19.5).

Eventually, the market will catch on once the information is known, and these guys will move down based on it. So, I’m fading these guys in early drafts, and scooping up a bunch after the new year once their prices start matching their projected volume. That said, it’s possible to advance with players since you know you’ll get at least two starts from all of them, and they’ll be super valuable the rest of the season if you can make it through. There’s always contrarian thinking about some of the lower-start players. If you can get your teams through Round 1 with one or two lower-start players, the squads that advance will be quite unique compared to the rest of the field. Just know, it’s likely the advance rate will be incredibly low with them on your roster unless it’s perfect elsewhere. This is where drafting 75-150 teams comes in handy. It affords you more ability to potentially light teams on fire for an opportunity at big upside.

Like those players, having Justin Thomas on your team will make it wildly different than all others. But unless he has a miraculous recovery, JT’s back injury will likely keep him out until March, which will give him a zero for Round 1. And then, like Xander a year ago, how good is he going to be after a major injury? I’d rather gamble on the low volume (in Round 1) Europeans.

Last year’s (horrible, I may add) highest drafted player, Eric Cole, is still going at (22.7) ADP, which makes no sense. Unlike a year ago, Cole isn’t in the signature events and hasn’t qualified for any Major. He’s not a horrible pick because he’ll likely play all of the first four events (and Cognizant), but there are a lot of players you can take in the final round who do exactly the same thing. Unless you’re convinced Cole ends up having his best year ever, I suppose. There’s just no need to expend this much draft capital.

2026 ONE AND DONE CONTEST

If you’re looking to make picks after drafts, the Race for the Mayo Cup is where you want to be. It starts in January, per usual, at the Sony Open, but the prize pool is now guaranteed at $1,200,000.

The top 750 get paid, and just look at this glorious, flat payout structure. Everyone inside the Top 20 will win at least $10,000 with $110,000 to the winner.

The Sentry has been cancelled this year, so there won’t be a tournament to remind you to sign up for the following week. Just reserve your spot now so you don’t forget.

BONUS: I get my dad an entry to this contest every year. He was a casual golf fan, but since I got him this entry three years ago, he calls me every week for the rundown on who he should take that week. Plus, it’s win/win since getting dads gift is basically impossible.

I highly recommend this move.