2026 Memorial Tournament: 8 Data Points to Build into Your Model this Week

Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, hosts the 2026 Memorial Tournament from June 4 through 7, and this week, the golf course itself is the headline.Jack Nicklaus built one of the hardest non-major tests on the schedule, a par 72 around 7,569 yards with penal rough, small firm bentgrass greens, and a signature event field limited to the best players in the world. There is no signature event the week before or after, and the US Open sits just two weeks away, so the strongest names show up sharp and rested.

Scottie Scheffler arrives as the two-time defending champion, chasing a three-peat at the course that fits his game better than anyone else in the field. Below him, the board gets interesting because this is a venue where it is very hard to fake a result. Treat this as a precision contest, not a birdie shootout, and let the data sort the contenders from the names you can safely pass on.

The Foundation

Three core inputs do most of the heavy lifting at Muirfield Village. Get these right and you have already filtered out most of the field.

1. Strokes Gained Tee to Green

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:T2G | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, Field Strength Strong, Scoring Conditions Difficult

This is among the most predictive stats anywhere on tour for this course, because the test rewards complete ball strikers and exposes one-dimensional players. Scheffler owns the best tee-to-green player-course combination in ShotLink history here, with his last four finishes reading first, first, third, third. It is worth noting that Rory McIlroy also grades as elite tee to green, yet Muirfield Village remains the only course he has played at least 10 times without a win, a reminder that this single metric is the floor of the analysis rather than the whole picture.

2. Strokes Gained Approach

View: Approach | Column: SG:APP | Possible Filters: Gain APP Difficult, Greens Size Small, Field Strength Strong

The greens are small, firm, and fast, and players are hitting into them from longer than tour average thanks to the length and the rough. That puts a premium on iron play. Patrick Cantlay has never lost strokes on approach at this course across his starts, and his recent approach numbers are sharp again. Hideki Matsuyama is showing vintage approach play, and Adam Scott has been one of the best approach players in the entire field this season, the kind of profile that travels well to Dublin.

3. Driving Accuracy and the Fairway Penalty

View: Off The Tee | Column: Dr Accuracy % | Possible Filters: Missed Fwy Penalty High, Rough Penalty High, Fairway Accuracy Difficult

The rough here is among the most penal on tour. The previews this week put the cost of a missed fairway near a half stroke, one of the highest figures all season, and that number only climbs when the course firms up and tee shots roll into trouble. Si Woo Kim is one of the most accurate drivers in the field, and Kristoffer Reitan brings elite driving to his Memorial debut. The flip side is a clear warning on bombers who lack accuracy, since length means little when you are hacking out sideways.

One Layer Deeper

Once the foundation is set, three more layers separate the players who can actually contend from those who simply fit the basic mold.

4. Strokes Gained Around the Green from Rough

View: Around the Green | Column: Scrambling Rough % | Possible Filters: Rough Length Long, Rough Penalty High, Scrambling – Rough Difficult

Because approaches come from distance into firm greens, scrambling out of thick lies becomes the great equalizer, and tour pros historically scramble worse than usual here. Matt Fitzpatrick is the standout, ranked number one in the field for short game around the green out of long rough, a category that has shown up repeatedly in his Memorial history and a major reason he profiles as a value play this week.

5. Bogey Avoidance

View: Scoring | Column: Bogey AVD % | Possible Filters: Scoring Conditions Difficult, Course Length Long, Field Strength Strong

Par is a good score on most holes at Muirfield Village, and the field bleeds shots through mistakes more than birdies. The par 3s are brutal and the par 4s are tough, so the players who keep big numbers off the card hang around all week. Scheffler is again the model here, pairing elite ball striking with the discipline to avoid the blow-up holes that wreck a scorecard.

6. Putting on Bentgrass

View: Putting | Column: SG:P | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent, Greens Speed Fast, Greens Size Small

The greens were reworked in the 2021 renovation and now feature contours that break more, leaving them a touch more playable than the borderline unfair firmness of the pre-renovation years. Comfort on this bentgrass surface still matters. Si Woo Kim carries a solid putting history at this course, which strengthens his accuracy-first case, while Sam Burns reads as possible fool’s gold, leaning heavily on a hot putter to mask a softer tee-to-green profile lately.

Down the Rabbit Hole

The final layers are lighter than the foundation, but they break ties when prices get tight.

7. Par 5 Scoring

View: Par 5 Efficiency | Column: SG: Par 5 | Possible Filters: Course Length Long, Par 72, Field Strength Strong

The par fives are the main scoring chances on a course where par travels well, and at least one is a true three-shot hole that most of the field cannot reach in two. Capitalizing here is the path to separation, so weight players who attack the fives rather than just survive the rest of the round.

8. Course History and Comparable Venues

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:TOT | Possible Filters: Architect/Redesigner Jack Nicklaus, Course Length Long, Event Type Signature Event. Tick Load Comp Courses to fold in Augusta National, Olympia Fields, and the other comps.

Winners here skew elite and repeat, with past champions including Cantlay and Matsuyama in this field, plus comparable tests at Augusta National, Olympia Fields, TPC River Highlands, and Quail Hollow. Ben Griffin returns to the site of his 2025 runner-up finish in strong form, while the withdrawal of past champion Viktor Hovland thins the field by one elite name and opens a little more room in the tier behind the favorites.

Pulling It All Together

The winning profile at Muirfield Village is consistent year after year. Elite tee-to-green play, precise irons, accurate driving, scrambling out of thick rough, and the discipline to capitalize on the par fives while avoiding big numbers. Scheffler checks every box, which is why he is the deserving favorite at +265 even off a 2026 that counts as a drought by his standards. The value lives in the next tier, where Matt Fitzpatrick at +2000 matches the around-the-green and iron demands, Patrick Cantlay at +2500 brings a flawless approach history at this course, and Hideki Matsuyama at +5100 offers a past champion trending up with the driver. The name to fade is McIlroy at +870, elite as he is, given a course record with no win in more than 10 starts and no top five. Set your model to favor accuracy and approach, expect a firm test, and let the precision players rise to the top.

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