Pat Mayo
2 months ago
Whether you’ve been grinding golf since there was ice on your window and Hawaii on TV or scrambling last second to find info for Masters pool picks. I got you.
The Masters is the comfort food even hipsters haven’t turned on. And, if you’re feeling alone, no need to worry, Jim Nantz is on the call at Augusta, which means you have at least one friend. The year’s first Major is finalized at 91 players.
Signature Events have taken some of the shine off seeing the PGA’s best get together and duke it out since it happens every almost every three weeks at this point. That’s fun and everything (kinda), but The Masters carries even more significance now. Didn’t think that was possible. Whether you hate LIV or simply forget it exists; since LIV’ss inception, it’s really provided extra juice for all the Majors. It’s undeniable. We’ve seen the PGA’s best square off six times already this year, but inject their mirror universe counterparts and now there’s heightened intrigue. Granted, with Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed leaving LIV, it’s less intrigue than past years since those were two of LIV’s actual contenders. Koepka is still in the field and has three Top 20 finishes in his past four starts on the PGA TOUR. Reed has played six times on the DP World Tour in 2026 with two wins and a runner-up.
All former Masters champs are in the Augusta field for life. Like the nWo. It’s why LIV signed so many of those guys. Guaranteed access. Other Major winners have a 5-year exemption along with top finishers in Majors a year ago too.
There are 10 LIV members in this year’s Masters. Down from 12 last year: Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton, Charl Schwartzel, Tom McKibbin, and Carlos Ortiz — 13% of the field.
This is the first Masters since 1994 neither Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson will be competing. Phil has missed most of the LIV events this year with a personal health matter so it’s not unexpected he’ll be taking a pass at Augusta. Tiger is also dealing with a “personal health matter”. Let’s go with that.
Despite competitiveness with the PGA vs LIV blood feud seemingly diminished, 2026 has the most intrigue in some time because of the lack of a dominant presence on the PGA TOUR. I don’t say “golf” as Bryson and Rahm are dominating LIV right now. Since you likely haven’t paid any attention, LIV has played five events in 2026: Bryson has won the past two events, Rahm has a win, three seconds, and a fifth.
Scottie Scheffler remains the world’s best player, but something is clearly off. Which is pretty hilarious to say about a player who already has a win in the year and is second in SG: TOTAL of all players on TOUR. If Scheffler wasn’t putting like prime Brad Faxon we’d be talking more about his issues. Mainly, his approach play. Scheffler’s irons are his superpower when combined with the rest of his game. Take those away and he’s very beatable. For the year, he’s gaining just +0.08 SG:APP/round. Tied for 43rd in this field with Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen. Scheffler is 1.24 strokes worse PER ROUND on approach in 2026 than in 2025.

Scheffler pulled out of the Houston Open, expecting his second child. Being notoriously private, there was no news about this for almost two weeks, which put Scottie’s Masters in some doubt. There is no doubt he’s playing. Turns out, the baby is almost two weeks old now, and just didn’t make it publicly known over the weekend before The Masters.
A ton of the other top names have wonky backs. Defending champion Rory McIlroy has been playing less in the early season than usual. He did play a lot on TGL, then he hurt his back at Bay Hill, only to return a week later at The PLAYERS and underwhelm. Despite the poor result, none of it was back-related. He was second with his driver for the week, and his ball speed remained unchanged from pre-injury. He just couldn’t putt. His -5.37 SG: PUTT was his worst putting performance since the 2024 St. Jude Classic. Of note, the last player to win The Masters without notching at least one win coming in was Hideki in 2021. Also, no one has gone back-to-back at Augusta since Tiger in 2001/2002.
Justin Thomas didn’t play an event until March because of off-season back surgery. He spiked at The PLAYERS (T8), but that’s been it in his three starts. Then there’s Collin Morikawa. He won at Pebble Beach and was THEE pick of the public at The PLAYERS Championship. The two-time Major winner started becoming the early trendy Masters picks, too. He played one hole at Sawgrass and quit with a back injury. He tried giving it a go at Valero last week and pulled out two days before the event started. There have been no updates on his status since. Maybe he’s fine? Doesn’t seem like it.
Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood have been playing the best of the annual top-tier players. Xander enters with three Top 10s in his last four starts, while Fleetwood has been Top 10 in three of five PGA TOUR starts in 2026. Ludvig Aberg should have multiple wins, but keeps folding on Sundays. 2025 US Open runner-up Robert MacIntyre has quietly started getting himself in contention each week as his irons have started to warm up to match his driver and putter.
Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Jason Day, Russell Henley, and Corey Conners have flashed a few times this year, but overall have all been underwhelming. Last year’s playoff loser, Justin Rose, won at Torrey Pines yet hasn’t done much since. Adam Scott has been one of the best ball strikers in the world this year, but hasn’t been chipping or putting. Tyrrell Hatton has been brutal on LIV, while Keegan Bradley has been outright awful. J.J. Spaun has started to get his act together, but still has a loose putter.
The season has been dominated by the young guard with little Major experience: Chris Gotterup has won twice, and Jacob Bridgeman took down a signature event at Riviera (along with a Top 20 finish in all eight of his starts). Neither has played at Augusta before. Akshay Bhatia won at Bay Hill and has three other Top 15s in his past five starts. Akshay’s best finish in a Major is T16 at the 2024 US Open. No player has been better on a per-round basis than Jake Knapp in 2026. He was T55 at the 2024 Masters. Which is his best Major result; he’s been cut in his three other starts.
Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim, and Nicolai Hojgaard have all played excellently but have yet to break through in 2026.
That leaves Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick as the two playing the best golf with real Major credibility. Former US Open winner Fitzpatrick finally staged a comeback win at the Valspar Championship after multiple near-misses, including a loss to Young the week prior at The PLAYERS Championship. Young hit the best shot of his career on the 72nd hole at Sawgrass to inch past Fitzpatrick. Young hasn’t finished outside the Top 10 since Pebble Beach in mid-February. He’s played all 16 Majors over the last four years, posting six Top 10s in those 16 appearances. He did miss the cut at last year’s Masters. And no winner has done that since Patrick Reed in 2018.
The 2026 Masters is WIDE OPEN.
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This is where I’m required to tell you no debutants have donned sports’ highest sartorial honor since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. That’s 47 years if your subtraction skills are rusty. This isn’t to say all debutants will fail. We’ve witnessed some close calls in recent years. Aberg was runner-up a year ago, while Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and Sungjae Im all claimed second-place finishes in their debuts.
22 players in the field this week have never played a competitive round at Augusta. As mentioned, Gotterup and Bridgeman are first-timers. Ben Griffin, Chris Gotterup, Kristoffer Reitan, Sami Valimaki, Harry Hall, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, among others, get to stroll up Magnolia Lane for the first time.
It’s far from a secret that experience is a massive edge. Augusta is a unique course with its massive elevation changes, and there is generally a learning curve for first-time players who need to figure out the weird breaks and angles on the fly. A lack of green books for players and caddies makes that ingrained knowledge a clear advantage.
Beyond the outlier that was Patrick Reed in 2018, the past 25 champions have not only played in the event the previous year but also made the cut. After Reed, a fresh-faced kid who looked like he was wearing his dad’s shirt, named Tiger Woods, was the last winner to miss the cut, he then achieved immortality 12 months later. That was in 1997.
As much as we want to invest in long shots, the Masters is almost always won by one of the elite players — still won’t stop me, but I thought you should know. Since 2012, Bubba Watson has been the lowest-ranked player to claim victory. Bubba was No. 18 in the world rankings when Charl Schwartzel helped slip him into the Green Jacket. Many think of Danny Willett as the ultimate long-shot since he wasn’t well-known to Americans at the time and cashed triple-digit outright win bets for a lot of us bettors, but it’s worth noting the Brit was the 12th-ranked player in the world when he hit his first drive in 2016. Willett didn’t just come out of nowhere, either; he was just an unknown to the general public.
It’s important to spend a lot of time parsing through the top end of the 2026 Masters board, as the winner is almost certainly going to come from that group. If you want to win your bets, an Underdog Draft/Pick’Em Entry or a DraftKings tournament, spoiler, you’re going to need to pick the winner. Only immeasurable insights here.
The field of invitees is currently at 91 players, and the Top 50 players will make the cut. COVID wiped out the “all players within 10 strokes of the lead” provision at the November Masters in 2020, and they decided that was a rule that should stick. It’s just the Top 50 and ties after 36 holes now. So, over 50% of players are going to make the cut; just because you squeeze all six players in your DFS lineup through the cut line doesn’t really mean much if you don’t have a squad of golfers competing for a novelty check. In years previous, a “To Make The Cut” parlay was an incredibly +EV wager. As evidence by us hitting an 84/1 winner in this market in 2024. But with more players in the Masters this year, now, along with the sportsbooks getting wise to these wagers, it will be more difficult to capitalize.
All this to say, of past champions and amateurs at the very bottom of the pricing is a trap. It shouldn’t take Admiral Ackbar to clue you into that information. But every year, I see people jamming in Fred Couples to construct a super team with their other five roster spots on DraftKings. Avoid the temptation of those savory savings. There’s simply not enough upside for them to lead your team to victory in one of the large-field DFS contests. Specifically, the million-dollar top prize tournaments.
Every now and again, a Bernhard Langer or Couples will play pretty well, but it’s not as often as you probably remember. And the results are certainly not as good as what exists in your mind’s movies. The reality would likely make your eyes rain. Langer lurking on the leaderboard actually happened in 2016. Not a few years ago. It’s been almost a decade. AND he ended up finishing T24 that year. Langer was T29 in the 2020 Masters but still finished outside of the Top 30 in DraftKings scoring. The past champions are far less likely to generate the necessary birdie streaks and eagles to rise up the DraftKings leaderboard. Couples finished T50 in 2023 and had missed the cut the previous four seasons.
If you want to compete for the very top prizes on DraftKings this week, you’ll likely need the winner, another two players in the Top 5, another two inside the Top 10, and an outlier player who outscores their finishing position.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 187 yards
Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 451 yards
Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 547 yards
PAST WINNER DETAIL
2025: Rory McIlroy (+750, 2nd favorite) playoff win over Justin Rose
Rory and Rose were 5+ shots different than one another in all four rounds (Rory: 72-66-66-73, Rose: 65-71-75-66)
Rory was the only top 13 finisher to lose strokes putting (he was #1 in APP and #2 OTT)
Recent Form Entering Event, Stats:
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-11, +500)
During The Win: Bogey-free Thursday, good vibes (was under par through his first three holes in all four rounds), bogeyed holes 3 and 11 in both weekend rounds.
Recent Form Entering Event, Stats:
2023: Jon Rahm (-12, +900)
During The Win: Double bogey on #1 in Round 1 – after that, he played the front-9 -9 for the week, played the Par 3’s at +2 over the weekend, played #8 at -5 for the week (eagle on Thursday)
Recent Form Entering Event, stats
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10, +1600)
During The Win: Was -8 for the week on the front 9 (11 birdies and 3 bogeys), played #18 at +4 for the week (two bogeys and a Sunday double), birdied at least one Par 3 in each of the first three rounds
Recent Form Entering Event, stats
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10, +4600)
During The Win: Had an eagle in each of the first three rounds (all on a different Par 5), 7 of his 9 bogeys came on the back-9, one bogey on his first 29 weekend holes
Recent Form Entering Event, stats
PAST WINNER FORM
2025: Rory McIlroy -11
In his 4 tournaments prior, he earned $5,457,558. He shot +4 at the 2024 Masters. (Akshay Bhatia’s past 4 tournaments: $5,418,028 … he shot +4 at the 2025 Masters)
2024: Scottie Scheffler -11
2023: Jon Rahm -12
Each of the past 3 Winners had at least 1 PGA win and 7 top 10’s in the season prior. Who checks those boxes as far as pedigree goes this time around?
There’s no need for an in-depth breakdown of Augusta National. If you’d made the leap to read an article on The Masters and scrolled this far down, the chances of you knowing the course, even the weird nooks and crannies, are above 96.8%.
If you want more detail, Michael Kim joined me to walk through every hole and the strategy for each from the tee box to the green.
In case you’re living the movie Blast From the Past, but for real life, Augusta National is a Par 72, which plays longer than its 7,555 yards due to the incredible amount of elevation shifts across the course. As there is essentially no penal rough on the grounds, it gives a lean to those who have slightly extra distance on the field. It’s not essential to have the ability to contend in a long-drive contest; however, history has proven otherwise, but it certainly makes the path to eagles and birdies on the Par 5s less resistant.
For 2026, the only change is the front of the tee on hole No. 17 being reduced by 12 yards. There’s also a new Player Services Building located behind the tournament practice area. It features a locker room, dining areas, lounges, physio, and fitness facilities. Sounds nice.
There have been changes to three of the holes over the past few years. The difficult No. 11 scraped most of the trees from the right-hand side of the hole, but they’ll still prove to be a nuisance. The Par 5 15th was lengthened by 20 yards, which led to fewer players going for the green in two. The easiest hole on the course has previously been lengthened by 35 yards from years past. No. 13, the bead on the rosary of Amen Corner, will now have a far more difficult second shot. Most of the field, with a good drive (hell, even with a bad one), was able to attack the green in two, generating eagle opportunities. Eagles have been at more of a premium since.
Again, while distance is a massive advantage, it’s not everything. Gaining strokes with the driver is, though. Scheffler and Rahm were second in the field in SG: OTT each of the past two years. Rory was 10th, as was Scottie, in his first win. Dustin led all players with the driver in 2020.
Even someone like Patrick Reed, not especially known for his driving prowess, was well above his usual baseline at Augusta in 2018. Reed gained +3.35 strokes off the tee. He’d only gained more than that in two starts in the previous two years before the victory (2017 Travelers; 2017 Memorial). Tiger didn’t gain a ton the year he won (+1.51 SG: OTT), neither did Hideki (+1.8 SG: OTT), but that was enough leverage on the field to make the rest of their games matter.
If you decide to back one of the non-elite drivers, their irons and short game better be electric all four days. Which isn’t as repeatable as the driver.
Over the past two Masters, Bryson, Cam Young, Aberg, Rory, Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, Tyrrell Hatton, JJ Spaun, and Tommy Fleetwood are the only players averaging over +0.60 SG: OTT/Round.
Difficulty at Augusta tends to vary every year based on the conditions. The impact of damp conditions has lessened over the years because of the filtration system. A lot of courses have a SubAir system under the greens to suck out the water and allow the grounds crew to make the putting surfaces as fast or slow as they want. Augusta has those on each green… and under every fairway, so even if it does rain, don’t expect a long period of time with receptive course conditions. Although there’s little to be done if it simply never stops raining. Like in 2023.
Although it’s still days away, fingers crossed, the conditions look a bit nippy in the early morning, but dry and calm as of now.


There are 41 bunkers, six water hazards, and a whole lotta pine straw scattered across the grounds. Unless there’s an untimely tree in the way, the pine straw isn’t the end of the world.
The bentgrass greens are around Tour average in size; the major difference is the wild undulations. These are some of the hilliest and fastest putting surfaces the players will encounter all year.
Putting leaders from Augusta over the last three years

Course history plays a more significant factor at Augusta than at any other course. That’s not anecdotal either. Course history on a week-to-week basis holds very little predictive value at most events, despite the prevailing narrative, but The Masters is an outlier in that regard.
Strokes Gained: TOTAL leaders at Augusta the past three years…

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Helix Mattresses have stepped up and given me a mattress to give to one lucky person. Not a lot of work to win a $2,000 mattress tbh. Plus, there are other prizes: cash, golf balls, etc. All you need to do is get in the draw.
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Xander Schauffele — A winner in Japan during the Fall Season, Xander is currently suffering a case of the Tommy Fleetwoods, which has kept him from hoisting a novelty check in 2026, despite some close calls. What are the ‘Tommy Fleetwoods,’ you ask? That would be playing amazingly for three rounds and awful for one to fall just short of winning. That said, Xander’s gained over six strokes T2G in three of his past four starts, all Top 10s, while averaging +6.5 SG: APP in his last two appearances. That’s to go along with three consecutive Top 10s at The Masters.
Akshay Bhatia — It’s worrisome that he used his time between The PLAYERS and the Masters, traveling to India, to miss the cut at the Hero Indian Open two weeks ago. Hopefully, he’s a good plane sleeper. Beyond that, few have been better in 2026. In his past five starts, Bhatia has won a signature event, posted three Top 10s, and had no finish worse than T16. While most will remember his awful driving performance en route to victory at Bay Hill, that was actually the only event where he’s dropped strokes to the field during that run. Over the past 20 rounds entering Augusta, he’s third in approach, seventh T2G, and third in putting. He’s taken his lumps in his first two Masters starts, but has made the cut both times (T42/T35) and has only lost strokes putting to the field in one of eight rounds.
Nicolai Hojgaard — A Green Jacket may be unlikely, based on history, but Nicolai is the only player in this year’s Masters who ranks inside the Top 30 in driving, approach, chipping, and putting. He’s fresh off a runner-up in Houston and has actually had a flash at Augusta in his limited appearances. Hojgaard was in contention well into the third round in 2024 as a debutant before completely collapsing coming home, struggling on Sunday, finishing with a T14. He was brutal a year ago, missing the cut, but he was pretty bad all of 2025. One positive, in his six Augusta rounds, he’s only dropped strokes to the field once with the driver and has gained over a stroke chipping in four of six rounds.
If you are new to the Masters, there are a few terms you need to familiarize yourself with to speak the language with those who have been watching for five decades:
Amen Corner – First coined by Herbert Warren Wind in 1958, Amen Corner spans from the second shot at the 11th through the drive at 13. It’s the most famous stretch of holes on the course (in all of golf, really) and its risk/reward potential can create massive fluctuations atop the leaderboard.
Butler’s Cabin – The most noteworthy of the 10 cabins scattered across the grounds of Augusta National. Constructed in 1964, Butler’s Cabin is home to the Green Jacket presentation, where the year’s previous champion bestows the new champion with golf’s highest sartorial honor.
First Nine, Second Nine – At most courses, it’s acceptable to refer to the holes going out as the “front nine” and those coming in as the “back nine”, but at Augusta National it’s a faux pas. Why? Because they’re superior to us mortals.
Friends – All of us, to Jim Nantz.
Green Jacket – The ultimate prize. Winners are presented with the Green Jacket on the 18th green after victory, then again in Butler’s Cabin in a separate presentation. It’s so nice, you get to wear it twice.
Magnolia Lane – After passing through the gates, you’ll find yourself heading toward the course, traveling down Magnolia Lane. It’s known for, DUH, a plethora of magnolia trees on both sides of the road that converge to create an exalted vista, producing an ambiance matched only by its wintertime companion: The drive up to the creepy house in Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. However, that drive is only recommended for the achromatic enthusiasts among us.
Patrons – Don’t think of using the terms “crowd,” “gallery” or “fans” on the grounds at Augusta. They are patrons, and they shall be on their best behavior.
Tributary – A term usually exclusively reserved for seventh-grade geography classes and maps of inland Scandinavia, there is a tributary that runs off Rae’s Creek by the green on 13.