2026 John Deere Classic: 8 Data Points to Build into Your Model this Week

The 2026 John Deere Classic returns to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, a D.A. Weibring parkland design that opened in 2000 and plays to a par of 71 across roughly 7,300 yards. This preview hands you the eight strokes gained categories that actually move the needle at a course like this, so you can build your own model before Thursday.

Deere Run is one of the lowest-scoring stops on the PGA Tour, with a winning total of at least 18 under in every running since 2009 and a tournament record of 257. The fairways are wide and forgiving, the bentgrass greens are smaller than average at around 5,500 square feet, and three of the six hardest holes are par 3s, so the test lives in the approach and on the greens rather than off the tee.

Ben Griffin opened as the co-favorite at +1300 alongside Chris Gotterup at +1375, with Keith Mitchell next at +1750 on a board stripped of most of the world top 10 the week after the Travelers. The headline storyline is the professional debut of Jackson Koivun, one of the best amateurs in recent memory, while two-time champion Jordan Spieth returns to the site of his maiden 2013 win. With receptive greens and a birdie-or-better mindset rewarded all week, the winning archetype is an elite iron player who scores on the par 5s and gets hot with the putter.

The Foundation, Start Here

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

View: Approach | Column: SG:APP | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent, GIR Accuracy Easy, Par 71

Approach play is the single most predictive skill at Deere Run, because the field hits greens at a far higher clip here than tour average. Greens in regulation rates run around 71 percent over the past five years against a 66 percent tour baseline, and that figure climbs to about 81 percent when a player finds the fairway. That means iron control sets up the birdie barrage, and the names with the cleanest approach profiles are the ones who pull away. J.T. Poston at +2700 fits squarely, as does Tom Kim at +3700, who has gained on approach in five straight starts.

2. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:T2G | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent, Fairway Accuracy Easy, Course Length Average

Tee-to-green ball striking is the cleanest one-number proxy for the winning archetype here. Driving accuracy barely matters at a course this generous, so a player can lean on overall ball striking rather than precision off the tee to stack greens and chances. Chris Gotterup at +1375 is the class of the field by most full-swing measures and arrives as one of the hottest names in the bracket. Ben Griffin at +1300 is the co-favorite as a multiple-time 2025 winner and a logical bounce-back play off the Travelers.

3. Par 5 Efficiency

View: Par 5 Efficiency | Column: SG: Par 5 | Possible Filters: Par 5 Scoring Easy, Greens Surface Bent, Par 71

You cannot keep pace at Deere Run without feasting on the three par 5s. The second hole is the easiest on the course with a near 5 percent eagle rate, the 17th plays as a back-nine scoring chance at roughly a 3 percent eagle rate, and only the near 600-yard 10th resists. Players who turn these holes into birdies and eagles build the cushion that the birdie-fest field demands. This is where aggressive scorers such as Gotterup and Griffin separate from the steadier grinders.

Getting Granular, One Layer Deeper

4. Strokes Gained: Putting

View: Putting | Column: SG:P | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent, Greens Size Small, Greens Speed Average

A hot putting week is close to a prerequisite to win on these bentgrass greens. With so many players hitting greens and creating looks, the separator becomes who actually pours in the mid-range putts, and pure ball strikers without a putter simply do not finish the job here. Denny McCarthy at +6200 is the cleanest expression of this edge as one of the best putters in the game and a player with three straight top-7 finishes at this event from 2022 to 2024. He is long overdue for a first PGA Tour win, and this is the profile and the venue to get it.

5. Approach Proximity, 150 to 200 Yards

View: Overall Approach Proximity | Column: Overall 150-200 | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent, GIR Accuracy Easy, Gain APP Average

Tightening the approach picture to proximity in the mid-iron range tells you who will leave the shortest birdie putts. Because the field hits so many greens, the edge is not just hitting them but stuffing approaches inside makeable range on the smaller targets. Players who control distance from 150 to 200 yards convert the most looks into birdies. Jackson Koivun, debuting as a professional after a T11 here last year, brings a distance, accuracy, and putting blend that profiles well in this exact band, though his +2800 number may shorten as the public bets the debut.

6. Par 3 Efficiency

View: Par 3 Efficiency | Column: SG: Par 3 | Possible Filters: Par 3 Scoring Difficult, Greens Surface Bent, Par 71

The par 3s are the hidden teeth of an otherwise gentle course. Three of the six hardest holes at Deere Run are par 3s, and the four of them average about 193 yards, so this is where birdie machines can quietly bleed strokes back to the field. A player who plays the one-shotters at or under par protects a low total while everyone else attacks the par 5s. This is a useful tiebreaker between similarly priced contenders such as Jackson Suber at +5500 and Emiliano Grillo at +9200.

Down the Rabbit Hole

7. Bogey Avoidance

View: Scoring | Column: Bogey AVD % | Possible Filters: Scoring Conditions Very Easy, Greens Surface Bent, Par 71

In a week where 18 under is the floor to win, a single clumsy bogey costs more than it would anywhere else. The math is simple, since every dropped shot has to be clawed back against a field that is making birdies in bunches, so the most efficient way to climb the leaderboard is to never give one away. Watch the holes the notes flag as swing spots, with the par-4 ninth playing just over 500 yards as the toughest on the course and the 18th carrying roughly a 4 percent bogey-or-worse rate. Grillo, a runner-up here in both 2022 and 2025, has the steady, mistake-free profile this category rewards.

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8. Course History and Comps

View: Strokes Gained | Column: SG:TOT | Possible Filters: Greens Surface Bent, Par 71, Course Length Average (tick Load Comp Courses)

Course history carries real weight at Deere Run, where the same names keep contending year after year. Tick the Load Comp Courses checkbox to fold in similar low-scoring, bentgrass, approach-driven venues and widen your sample beyond the John Deere itself. Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, and past champions J.T. Poston and Jordan Spieth all carry the kind of repeat history this view surfaces. Brian Campbell returns as the defending champion at +20000 after beating Grillo in a playoff in 2025.

Pulling It All Together for the John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run is a wide, forgiving, low-scoring birdie-fest where approach play, par-5 scoring, and putting on small bentgrass greens decide the week, and driving accuracy is close to an afterthought. The favorites earn their spots, with Chris Gotterup at +1375 and Ben Griffin at +1300 as the strongest top-of-board plays and J.T. Poston at +2700 fitting the formula as a past champion in form.

The longer-odds leans are Tom Kim at +3700 on the rising approach and short game, Denny McCarthy at +6200 as the overdue elite putter with a stellar course-history fit, and Emiliano Grillo at +9200 as a two-time runner-up here. The fade is the same one this course always demands, which is the pure bomber without a putter, because length alone does not separate when the whole field is hitting greens.