2026 Farmers Insurance Open – Noonan’s Outright Picks

Si Woo Kim gave us a sweat for a bit at last week’s American Express, but in the end, he folded like a cheap shirt against the inevitable force that is Scottie Scheffler. What Scheffler is doing is remarkable, and outright bettors shouldn’t shy away from the “Without Scheffler” markets any time he’s in the field. There’s an element of this being a prisoner-of-the-moment take, but this moment is now in Year 4. Per No Laying Up, Sheffler’s now won 42% of his starts since switching to the mallet putter a few years ago.

The good news for us this week is that Scheffler isn’t teeing it up at Torrey Pines, so we can attack the board. We do have 10 of the top 20 players in the OWGR in this week’s field, plus the return of Brooks Koepka.

This week, the field will split the first two days between the North and South courses, with the top 65 (and ties) playing the final two rounds played on one of the Tour’s toughest tracks, the aforementioned South Course. After keeping some of the tee boxes and adjustments from the 2021 U.S. Open, it’s now the longest track on the Tour at 7,765 from the tips. It features thick, penal rough, narrow fairways and small Poa Annua greens, which are notoriously difficult to putt on, especially late in the day. Course history also matters here, as 17 of the last 20 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have had a top-10 at this event prior to their win.

Other than the one round on the North Course, which plays at 7,200 yards and nearly two strokes under par on average, the scoring this week will be the complete opposite of the birdie-fests we saw last week. The South Course is the seventh-most difficult layout on the Tour, with a -0.07 scoring average relative to par. It offers no respite, requiring players to utilize every club in their bag.

Torrey Pines poses a significant challenge to the field with its long layout, narrow fairways, and 4-inch rough. At just 28 yards wide on average, the fairways are the fifth-narrowest on Tour, making distance and carry off the tee crucial, especially with the cooler January air. Even though we see driver usage about 12% higher here versus the Tour average, the field averages only 293 yards in driving distance. The course will likely play firmer than it did last year, and hopefully with less wind, but you’re not getting much roll on these fairways and basically none at all in the rough.

Driving accuracy is challenging, with only a 51% success rate, but hitting fairways isn’t crucial for success on this course. Many players often end up in the rough, giving longer hitters an advantage with shorter iron shots to reach the greens. The South Course generates the highest number of approach shots from over 200 yards on Tour. Approximately 55% of second shots are taken from distances greater than 175 yards.

The thick, rough, and small undulating greens at Torrey Pines South make short-game skills and scrambling abilities crucial for gaining strokes. Around-the-green shots here come from the thick 4-inch rough, and happen about 25% more often than at a standard PGA Tour stop. The South Course is the toughest on the PGA Tour for making putts within 5 to 15 feet —there are no easy shots here. The greens run about 12.5 on the stimpmeter, which is faster than average, presenting a challenge due to the slick Poa surfaces. This California Poa can be inconsistent, especially later in the day, making it a struggle for many players who aren’t used to it.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the South and North Course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot for 1.5 units, sometimes up to 2 for bigger events. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

There are questions surrounding Ludvig Aberg after he withdrew after the second round of last week’s American Express due to illness. It sounds like a standard illness, not anything that should linger long-term, and it’s already been announced that he’ll be in a featured group with Max Homa and Brooks Koepka on Thursday and Friday. I think the unknown has created a dip in his odds, and it’s too enticing for me to pass up.

Ironically, Aberg was off to a great start at last year’s Farmers before an illness derailed his week. He followed it up with a win on the South Course a few weeks later, after the California wildfires pushed the Genesis out of Riviera and back to Torrey Pines. He was going off at 11/1 at last year’s event, so we’re getting a significant discount.

Aberg is second in my model this week, ranking in the top five across the majority of the key metrics I’m factoring in. He’s a great fit on long, driver-heavy courses with difficult scoring conditions.

When Ludvig Aberg won last year’s Genesis on the South Course, he held off Scottie Scheffler and Maverick McNealy to do so. McNealy calls Las Vegas home these days, but he’s California-born and raised, and is very familiar with the unique demands of Poa Annua greens. He’s also played well at other long courses with difficult scoring conditions in the past few months, including the Memorial (T5) and BMW (solo 3rd).

McNealy was particularly competitive in any of the four majors last season, but he finished among the top 40 in all four stops, punching a ticket to the end-of-season Tour Championship (T23) for the first time. His ball speed was up quite a bit at Waialae, and if those gains are real, I think he’s set up to be very competitive this week.

I’m leaning heavily into the results of my model this week, but let’s call a spade a spade. I’m never passing on Keegan Bradley at 40/1 at Torrey Pines. Bradley finished fifth in my model, and though I’ve barely factored in course history, it’s noteworthy that Bradley has three T5 or better finishes in his past eight starts at the Farmers.

Bradley’s high apex height is an advantage here, given the number of 175+ yard approach shots into these small greens. He’s also relatively long and straight off the tee. Looking at this week’s field, Bradley is the only golfer who ranks inside the top 40 in both carry distance (28th) and distance from the edge of the fairway (DFEF, 33rd) on driver-heavy courses over the past twelve months (min. 36 rounds). This is an excellent price given his fit and history. Go Pats.

Another model darling for me this week is Taylor Pendrith. In a way, the tail wags the dog here. Pendrith, who’s third in my model behind Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg, has finished T16 or better in four of five career starts at Torrey Pines.

Pendrith has played his best golf on longer courses, with his best 2025 finishes outside of Torrey Pines coming at Memorial Park (T5), Quail Hollow (T5), Muirfield Village (T12), and Caves Valley (T15). Over the past two years, Pendrith has ranked fourth in this week’s field in average SG: Total per round on long and very long courses, and seventh in SG: Ball-striking. He’s also gained an average of 0.18 strokes per round putting on Poa greens over the past three years, which isn’t a huge number, but his baseline putting numbers are strong. He finished T6 at Waialae two weeks ago, and somehow missed the cut at last week’s American Express despite shooting 10-under par. Tough scene. This is a great bounce-back spot for him.

I had a bit of FOMO last week when I saw so many folks on Michael Thorbjornsen, but I held strong and kept him off my card. A less-than-driver wedge-fest is not the spot for Thorbjornsen, but Torrey Pines very much is. Other than making 10-foot putts for the team of his youth, the Boston Common Frogs, Thorbjornsen’s greatest assets are his length off the tee and long-iron play.

Thorbjornsen’s driver is his greatest weapon right now, ranking second in this week’s field in Total Driving over the past 12 months. He’s among the top 10 in both driving distance and carry distance, and while it’s not a requirement this week, it certainly helps. He’s also a strong long iron player, ranking fourth in Going for the Green proximity yards and second in overall Greens in Regulation percentage. His sample of putting on California Poa is small, but he was a two-time All-American and top-ranked PGA Tour U player in the 2024 class while at Stanford.

We don’t have a huge sample of events in the Rabbit Hole for Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (RNP), but what we do have fits the profile for Torrey Pines. RNP just won the DP World Tour’s Australian Open in early December, taking home the title against a field that included Rory McIlroy, Joaquin Niemann, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, and Cameron Smith.

RNP can dial up distance if he needs it, as we saw at Oakmont back in June, when he finished T12 and ranked seventh in SG: T2G for the week. His putter runs hot and cold, but this is a talented young player, and one I think can make some noise on the PGA Tour this season.