2026 Cognizant Classic – Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The PGA Tour kicks off the first of four straight Florida events in Palm Beach Gardens at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic, formerly known as the Honda Classic. The sponsor change came at the perfect time for this event. The identity of this event pre-2024 was unique, as it routinely ranked among the toughest non-Major tests on the schedule each year. But two major changes prior to the 2024 event have impacted how this event plays now.

First, let’s talk agronomy. Dormant Bermuda grass is one of the most difficult surfaces that you can play on. Lies are unpredictable, which makes contact and control a lot more difficult, and on a course that typically plays windy and is littered with water hazards, that can lead to difficult scoring conditions. The fairways and rough, including the surfaces around the Bermuda greens, are now overseeded with rye grass. It’s aesthetically pleasing because the course looks lush and green rather than baked out and brown, but it also creates a more receptive, predictable playing surface.

The other change, which is straightforward when you consider its impact on the overall scoring average, is that the difficult Par-4 10th hole had its tee box moved back slightly and was changed to a Par-5. That hole has had a 60% birdie or better rate the past two seasons, one of the easiest birdie holes on the entire PGA Tour. The course routinely played a full stroke or more over par, but played 1.74 strokes under par last season.

Now, there’s still trouble lurking at PGA National. The famed “Bear Trap” is no joke, but the three-hole stretch of 15, 16, and 17 plays slightly easier than it used to prior to the agronomy shift. There’s also plenty of bunkering and water to navigate, both off the tee and on forced carries via approach. When the wind gusts kick up, there are still some knee-knockers out there, but now that those shots are often played from a more predictable surface, they have far less bite than they used to.

Early weather reports are encouraging as far as the wind goes, but check back as Thursday approaches. Looking at my card from years past, I’m typically lighter here pre-tournament, saving bullets for matchups and chasing outright winners live on the weekend. This week, I took advantage of some soft opening numbers and built out a full card.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the PGA National course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

Podcast: Apple | Spotify

YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total, Easy/Very Easy/Average Scoring Conditions; Weak/Very Weak/Average Field Strength
• SG: Recent Form
• Par-5 Birdie or Better%
• SG: Ball-striking, less-than-driver
• SG: Putting (Baseline putting/Bermuda putting)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.

For outrights, I typically allot for 1.5 units, sometimes up to 2 for bigger events. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Cognizant Classic Targets

Michael Thorbjornsen (30/1)

I don’t think I’d consider Michael Thorbjornsen at the Honda Classic, but at the Cognizant Classic? Yes, please. The increase in driver usage works in Thorbjornsen’s favor, as does the ease of scrambling, which is probably the weakest part of his game at this stage. Everything else here sets up well for his game.

He’s played well in easier scoring setups against weaker competition, can pour in birdies, especially on Par-5’s, and some of his best putting performances since turning pro have come on Bermuda greens. With Ben Griffin and Jacob Bridgeman‘s Monday morning withdrawals, Thorbjornsen sits atop my Rabbit Hole model this week.

Max McGreevy (50/1)

Max McGreevy is rolling out the Sungjae Im schedule to kick off 2026. He’s playing every week, keeping his commitment to this one even though he’s been in the Signature Event fields the past two weeks and is set to play the following two weeks at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.

McGreevy struggled with his putter out west, but he’s been a significantly better putter on Bermuda grass, including back-to-back strong fall finishes at the Butterfield Bermuda (T3) and RSM Classic (solo 2nd). He finished third in my model, which has very little separation at the top, making this an auto-click in this increasingly weak field. If he can continue to keep the ball in play off the tee and post solid approach numbers, he should be in the mix.

Mac Meissner (50/1)

Mac Meissner finished the 2025 regular season on a high note, with a T14 at the 3M followed by a solo-second at the season-ending Wyndham. He kept his run of strong play going all fall and into the start of 2026, though he really hasn’t threatened the top of the board at all. He’s fourth in my model, ranking in that same spot against weak field and easy scoring setups over the past calendar year, one of the metrics that carries the most weight in my model this week.

Johnny Keefer (55/1)

It’s been a pretty uneventful start on the PGA Tour for the top Korn Ferry grad of 2025, but Johnny Keefer has made the cut in his first four starts, and the ball-striking numbers have been eye-popping. Keefer has 13 shotlink-measured rounds to start the season, and he’s gained an average of 1.54 strokes per round ball-striking, the third-highest mark in this week’s field over the same time frame.

His short game has held him back, but he’s played a lot of collegiate, PGA Tour of Americas, and KFT events on Bermuda putting surfaces and fared well, including a T7 finish this fall at the RSM Classic, where he gained 0.9 strokes per round putting. If he can keep the elite ball-striking numbers going, I like his chances this week. The sample size is on the small side, but no one’s given themselves more scoring looks (27.6%) over the past year inside 15 feet from 150-175 than Keefer has.

Sami Valimaki (60/1)

This year’s RSM Classic winner, Sami Valimaki, has logged a lot of late Sunday reps over the past season+, and he’s well positioned to finish highly on this week’s leaderboard. The swing season win earned him a spot at Pebble (T34) and Riviera (T37), but why only swim the sharks when you can compete to win against a field like this? He’s smart to stay in this field.

He’s played his best golf on longer courses, but with a lot of forced layups and long Par-3s, a lot of the second shots here are coming from 150 yards out. He’s also an elite putter on Bermuda grass, where he’s gained 1 or more strokes at the second-highest rate in the field.

Nico Echavarria (66/1)

Nico Echavarria‘s player page is a wild ride, filled with missed cuts and top 10 finishes. He’s streaky and someone who needs a particular setup to contend, and I think we have that setup this week at PGA National. Now, he’s missed the cut in four of his past six starts, but the other two finishes were a T4 at the RSM and a T8 two weeks ago at Pebble Beach.

Echavarria is one of the best Bermuda grass putters in this week’s field, offering floor and ceiling on the greens. He’s also at his best when the scoring is easy and the fields aren’t as strong, as you can see in the graph above. I really like his price, given how often he puts himself in the mix in similar setups.

Michael Brennan (80/1)

There are a lot of similarities between Michael Brennan‘s and Michael Thorbjornsen‘s games; the only difference is that Brennan has a PGA Tour win on his resume. I’m sorry I had to write that, but it’s true. I was on Brennan this fall when he dusted the field in Utah, flashing his elite ball-striking chops and casual 190 mph ball speed off the tee.

Brennan is an Atlantic coast kid who played his college golf at Wake Forest, so he has a lot of Bermuda grass putting reps, which works in his favor. There’s not a lot of data to back up this selection, other than the fact that this weak field is a great opportunity to bet on young talent, and Brennan fits the mold to a tee.

Luke Clanton (200/1)

I backed Luke Clanton at this event last year, and I was excited to get 60/1 on Monday morning, a number that was much shorter by Thursday morning, when his tee time arrived. Yeah, he hasn’t played particularly well since, but I’m not sure I’m overall concerned with him moving forward.

Clanton bounced back and forth between finishing his season at Florida State and competing on the PGA Tour. I’m willing to chalk up his uneven 2025 to that unique situation, one created simply because Clanton is good at the game. I think holding it against him would be a mistake. Back in Florida, and with a lot to prove, this number is insane given his talent and what he’s flashed against stronger fields over the past two years.