2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Noonan’s Picks
Ryan Noonan
3 months ago
The PGA Tour’s west coast swing continues this week on the Monterey Peninsula, headlined by the breathtaking Pebble Beach Golf Links for the Tour’s first “Signature Event” of the season. The changes to the 2024 event were all positive, and they’ve remained in place again in 2026.
Once again, one of the world’s most iconic golf venues will be on display, with the Tour’s top players competing for the elevated purse. The field is maxed at 80 participants, and the 54-hole cut has been removed. Thirty-six holes will be played between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday, removing the Monterey Peninsula course altogether. The final two rounds will be played without the amateurs and will be held solely at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
Shotlink data is now available for Spyglass Hill rounds, last year being the first time for that, but for now, we’ll focus on Pebble Beach since three of the four rounds will be played on what’s commonly referred to as the “greatest meeting of land and sea in American golf.”
We’re looking at a par-72 track that measures only 6,972 yards, the second shortest course on Tour. A driving distance advantage is neutered here, though 2025 champ Rory McIlroy overpowered the course, with the majority of golfers clubbing down off the tee at one of the highest rates we’ll see and an average drive distance well below the Tour average.
Approach shots into these postage-stamp Poa greens will mostly come from 150 yards and in. Sidehill lies, elevation changes, and unpredictable wind gusts off the Pacific Ocean and Carmel Bay roll into the Monterey Peninsula, acting as the course’s main defense from target practice from the world’s best golfers. There are a lot of bunkers to navigate as well, and these unique, bumpy, and sloped Poa green putting surfaces lead to one of the lowest made putt percentages on Tour from inside 15 feet.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Pebble Beach stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total, Short, and Very Short Courses
- SG: APP, Short and Very Short Courses
- Good Drive%, Less than Driver
- Around the green proximity
- SG: P Hybrid, Baseline putting + Poa putting
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot for 1.5 units, sometimes up to 2 for bigger events. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
I’m once again taking a different approach this week because I’m absolutely terrified of Scottie Scheffler. On Thursday at TPC Scottsdale, he played one of the worst rounds we’ll see from him and still managed to finish one shot out of the playoff.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Targets
Scottie Scheffler
The best way to avoid navigating the “Without Scheffler” market prices, potential dead-heat chop, AND the fear of him running away from the field or chasing down your well-capped longshot is to just back Scottie Scheffler.
After a shocking 2-over par opening round on Thursday, where Scheffler lost 2.44 strokes tee-to-green and sat tied for 89th, he managed to rattle off SG: T2G performances of 3.71, 2.69, and 5.42 over the final three days to finish one shot off the pace. He’s finished T6 and T9 here the past two seasons, despite playing pretty average golf by his insanely lofty standards. Last season, this event was flip-flopped on the schedule with the WM Phoenix Open, so it was Scheffler’s first start (T9) of 2025 after the much-discussed “Ravioli Incident.”
We’ve almost become numb to Scheffler’s recent run of dominance. I think this really shows how he’s separated from his peers.
Dating back to the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, when Scheffler changed to the mallet-style putter, he’s been on another level. Since that tournament, looking only at events with a strong or very strong strength of field rating, Scheffler is gaining 2.81 strokes on the field per round, nearly 1.2 strokes per round better than second-ranked Rory McIlroy. Tee-to-green, the 1.26-stroke gap more than doubles McIlroy’s. When you look at the floor/ceiling breakdown, you can see how he separates in both consistency and top-level performance.
Scheffler has gained strokes in 87.5% of his 120 rounds in this sample, and has gained 2+ in 69.2% of those rounds, miles ahead of Xander Schauffele, who’s second at 46.4%. Essentially, he’s a column ahead of everyone. He gains 1+ more than most gain at all. That trend continues all the way down the line.
He’s the floor and the ceiling. I’m not telling you anything that you didn’t know. Among the giants, he’s the biggest and best of them all, and I don’t think he’ll spot the field a 10-shot head start this week.
Russell Henley (Top 10, ties included) +250
I love this spot for Russell Henley, who’s second in my model this week, and by margin. Henley’s proven that he can compete on bigger tracks despite lagging way behind the other elite golfers in ball speed and driving distance, but when we get him on a shorter track that rewards precision from 150 yards and in, he’s better than most.
Since the start of the 2025 season, Henley has made nine starts on courses we classify as “Very Short” or “Short” in length. He’s finished T19 or better in eight of the nine starts, six of which were T10 or better. Henley finished T5 at this event last season, ranking seventh in SG: APP and leading the field in SG: P. He’s my favorite non-Scheffler bet of the week.
Jason Day (Top 10, ties included) +310
Jason Day‘s T24 at Pebble Beach back in 2022 is by far his worst showing at this venue over the past decade. He’s a West Coast Pro-Am specialist these days, considering he’s always in the mix at PGA West as well.
Even as the field strength has improved at this event, Day has been in the mix on the weekend. Over his past eight starts at Pebble Beach, which includes the 2019 U.S. Open, Jason Day has gained strokes putting in all but four of his rounds. He’s so comfortable here that even when his ball-striking isn’t quite as crisp as he’d like, he can stay in contention because he’s burying putts. In fact, Day has gained 2+ strokes (SG: Total) in 59.3% of his measured rounds at this event over the past eight years, the highest rate in the field (min. 8 rounds played).
Patrick Cantlay (Top 10, ties included) +220
It’s been quite a while since Patrick Cantlay won a golf tournament, but no one will be surprised when he finally breaks the seal again. Looking at where he’s played best since his last win, it seems like his best shot is on a short, West Coast track.
Short courses, in general, have provided Cantlay’s best finishes over the past few seasons. He routinely plays well at TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, and PGA West. He also played well at Philly Cricket (T4), a course I wouldn’t consider a perfect comp course, but it was a Signature Event field at a wedge-heavy venue. He’s a solid FRL look, and should have a late tee-time on Sunday.
Sepp Straka (Top 20, ties included) +130
Sepp Straka was the 54-hole leader here last season, and I love to back him on setups like this. When Straka isn’t losing strokes to the field due to his lack of distance off the tee, he can compete. When his driving accuracy and wedge game can be highlighted, as we’ve seen in his wins at PGA National, PGA West, and Philly Cricket, he can take down any field.
His ball-striking performance at TPC Scottsdale was encouraging. He gained 3.66 strokes on Saturday (2nd in the field) and 2.29 strokes on Sunday, good for 11th. His putter is very hot and cold, but if he can give himself enough opportunities, he should be in the mix again, and we’re getting nearly 4/1 odds including ties.
Daniel Berger (Top 20, ties included) +130
Thinking about this event and the field on Monday morning, I thought Daniel Berger might be bad chalk this week. He’s feasted on weak fields to prop up his strong Pebble Beach history, and hasn’t played here since his 2021 win. Then I saw that he went out on Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open and fired a 6-under 65, lapping the field with 5.4 strokes gained via ball-striking.
I’m not interested in backing him to win against a field like this, but if you look at who’s performed best at Pebble Beach and its corollary courses over the past eight seasons, only Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay have gained strokes tee-to-green at a higher clip than Daniel Berger.
