2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Bets, Weather, DFS Notes | Fantasy Golf Picks

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational CHEATSHEET

ARNOLD PALMER INV.

• Matt Fitzpatrick +3300 (3 Places)
• Ludvig Aberg +6600 (3 Places)
• Pierceson Coody +9000 (3 Places)
• Nicolai Hojgaard +10000 (3 Places)
• Sepp Straka +11000 (3 Places)
• Alex Noren +11000 (3 Places)

PUERTO RICO

• Michael Brennan +4200
• David Ford +7500 (3 Places)
• Sudershan Yellamaraju +11000 (3 Places)
• Zac Bauchou +11000 (3 Places)
• Davis Riley +14000 (3 Places)
• Chandler Blanchet +14000 (3 Places)
• Jimmy Stanger +27500 (3 Places)

LIV HONG KONG

• Abraham Ancer +3300 (3 Places)
• Dean Burmester +4000 (3 Places)
• Paul Casey +12500 (3 Places)
• Wade Ormsby +135000

API FIRST ROUND LEADER

• Nicolai Højgaard +4500
• Keith Mitchell +5500

PRO FIRST ROUND LEADER

• David Riley +7000
• Chandler Blanchet +7000
• Jimmy Stanger +8000

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Arnold Palmer Invitational PICKS

There are a lot of bets in play this week (I mean, come on, there are three decent events to bet), but it’s mostly long shots, so the overall spend isn’t quite the load it may appear to be. But coming off my most winning week in almost two years, I’m feeling charitable to the sports books. If you’re looking for the 3 Place EW market, it’s an offering from Bet365. Don’t think I didn’t play all the outright winners together as 2 and 3 way parlays either. Because of course I did. Let’s have some fun.

Matt Fitzpatrick — Fitz’s driving and irons are at an all-time peak. He’s never been on a better ball-striking run in his career. The problem is, it perfectly coincided with an awful putting stretch. It’s not so much that he’s been bad all the time in 2026; it’s just when it has gone wrong, it’s gone really wrong. In his past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes putting to the field eight times. Not great, also not the worst. Should be manageable, right? NOPE. He’s lost more than a stroke in five of the past six rounds when he’s gone negative, topped off by dropping a laughable -5.75 SG: PUTT over the week at Riviera. Maybe there is something broken with his putting stroke. Or maybe it’s a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Regardless, I’m betting on a return to regular levels on the greens at Bay Hill. An event Fitzpatrick has played each of the past 10 years and never finished in the negative on these fast, Bermuda greens.

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Ludvig Aberg — While justified based on recent performance, seeing Aberg behind some of the names in this field is pretty jarring. Yet, it’s easy to sell after seeing his performance in the final three rounds at Riviera. All the early-season issues seemed to completely evaporate after a poor first round. Ludvig’s skill completely fits the skill profile for Bay Hill; he simply needs to deploy them all four rounds.

Pierceson Coody — Maybe too much too soon at too high profile of an event for Coody to get his breakthrough, but I would have said the same about Jacob Bridgeman two weeks ago. So here we are. Coody’s consistently great driving (1st in the field in SG: OTT past six months) keeps him lurking around these leaderboards. And now he’s actually hitting his irons consistently well. Prior to this year, Coody would always drive it great, run super hot or super cold with the putter, but rarely beat the field on his approach play. Yet, since the Sanderson Farms in October, he’s now gained on approach in nine of 10 starts, including two of the longer courses he’s played this year at Torrey Pines and Riviera.

Nicolai Hojgaard — No one from this next tier of players in the field is playing as well as Nicolai in 2026. He’s notched three Top 6 finishes in his past four starts between PGA and DPWT and has showcased the type of GO LOW ability that has staged many a final round comebacks at Bay Hill over the years. And, unlike most in this range, it’s doubtful Hojgaard feels the pressure of the big stars around himself if he finds a late tee time. At age 24, the Dane already has a DP World Tour Championship, a Ryder Cup Win, a Top 10 at the Olympics, along with a litany of other close calls. Just don’t ask him to make too many 5-footers for par. Those go in with less frequency for Nicolai than his 40-footers.

Sepp Straka — I may be starting to have a Straka problem. Hopefully it’s actually a Straka solution! I’m not entirely sure what happened to him at Riviera on the weekend, but previous to those two rounds, he was experiencing an elite ball-striking season. Quite similar to a year ago, when he was striking the ball excellently before the final event on the West Coast, where he got cut in a Signature Event, only to rattle off a T11/T5/T14 run through Florida.

Alex Noren — It’s been a mixed bag for Noren in 2026 after going nuclear in Europe after the PGA regular season ended. There have been a few little things pointing up, though. His results have improved in each start, despite the field strength getting stronger each time. Additionally, he’s spiked with his irons three times in his past seven rounds, gaining at least one stroke on the field on approach. The short game remains solid, and his proximity to the rough from 150+ yards is the best in the field. If Noren can clean up the driver, he can contend if conditions play tough.

PUERTO RICO

Michael Brennan — Brennan’s driver may be the best weapon on TOUR. Off the Tee play is the most repeatable metric we look at, and there’s no one better or more consistent than Brennan. That’s a wild sentence to type, but it’s just facts. At +1.08 SG: OTT, he’s the only player averaging over a stroke per round with the driver. For reference, Scottie is 2nd at +0.93 per round. You want numbers? Sure. He’s first in driving distance (312 yards) while hitting 68% of fairways. That’s about the same as known accuracy mavens JT Poston, Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa. So, Brennan is basically Henley but 30 yards longer per drive. That’s a scary prospect. The issue is that the rest of his game is pretty middling. Still, his irons are good enough to generate easy birdie opportunities, so he just needs a random good putting week to win. In nine PGA starts, he’s gained with the putter just once. He won that event in Utah. It’s kind of akin to very early Cameron Champ, where every time he gained putting, he contended and ended up winning three times. At any course where the driver plays, Brennan needs to be a bet.

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David Ford — I liked him last week, so why wouldn’t I go back in a weaker field after he continued his run of elite ball striking? You’d think this is the result of the three consecutive hole outs Thursday at COG, but his approach numbers were equally as good, or better, over the weekend. Of all players in the PRO field, he’s the only one inside the Top 5 in both driving and irons.

Last year, I hit Karl Villips after he flashed a bunch of spike approach results at COG the week before, so I’m rolling out a similar strategy again this year. Despite missing the cut at PGA National, both Blanchet and Riley gained over +1.4 SG: APP/round. That’s the most of any player in the field this week, outside of Chad Ramey, who is one-third the odds of the other two. Sudershan is more in the Brennan vein. He’s gained with his driver in almost 80% of rounds in his young career, but Old Yella has been better with his irons and putter. Stanger had two spike rounds with his driver and his irons at COG, and was T3 at this venue a year ago. And Bauchou? Well, I just like him.

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LIV HONG KONG

Ancer, Burmester, Casey — Hong Kong Golf Club rewards a lot of players who fit the “Enough distance, but great accuracy” type. Prime Francesco Molinari would have been great here. (After writing that, I went back and looked and found he lost in a playoff at HKGL in 2008 and followed it up with a T3 the next year.) Ancer beat Casey in a playoff in 2024, while the Burmester Mester lady was runner-up a year ago and fresh off a cracking first two rounds in South Africa last week before stalling out on the weekend.

Wade Ormsby — So, two things on The Ace of Wades. I originally bet him at 150 with 3 Places at Bet365, then DK was offering 1350/1 on him. I figured it was an error, but why not take the shot? That number was available most of Monday before getting slashed to 500/1, then to 400/1, etc. So now I have both bets. Ormsby has won twice at this course in his career and was T4 as recently as 2024. And it’s not like he’s been as terrible as his odds would make you think. He was T6 in his last start in New Zealand on the Asian Tour and has three Top 25s in his past five starts. Plus, one of my bigger paydays of 2025 was a long shot at this event a year ago when Phil paid off his Top 5 each way at 150/1. Sometimes guys are mispriced at a weird course.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational HOT LINKS