HomeGolf Betting2026 American Express Picks, Stats, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks 2026

2026 American Express Picks, Stats, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks 2026

Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo

4 months ago

4 months ago

2026 American Express Picks, Stats, Course Preview | Fantasy Golf Picks 2026

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 American Express Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.

2026 American Express Field & Tournament Notes

  • Field: 156 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 54 Holes
  • Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 22
  • Defending Champ: Sepp Straka

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The American Express is a three-course rotation. Everyone in the field will play each course once: Nicklaus Tournament Course (NT), Stadium Course (SC), and La Quinta Country Club (LQ). The cut will be Top 65 and ties after the THREE rounds, and the final round will be contested at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course.

The players are back on mainland USA for the first time this year, and to celebrate, they’ve decided we need a non-celebrity Pro-Am. Even though only 52 pros will be on the course each day during the first three rounds, each of them has an AM partner and will play as groups of four. So, these rounds take way longer than the normal, already incredibly lengthy rounds.

Unless production has changed over the winter, this event only has dedicated cameras at the Stadium Course. Long-time readers will certainly remember Adam Hadwin’s chase for a 59 at the La Quinta Course in 2017. Well, they remember it because the network finally got a camera over to follow him on his 17th hole. And yes, he did shoot 59 that day. Maybe it’s a play to keep the boomers comfortable; there’s really no difference between this and 1992 coverage. Change can be scary. Although, with the way my grandparents think that poorly made AI video from Facebook is real these days, the network could just show someone playing PGA West from Tiger Woods 2006, and they’d probably be gripped.

Beyond the long days and horrendous TV coverage, there’s also no shot tracker/Strokes Gained data outside of the Pete Dye Stadium Course. The more notable names tend to play their Stadium Course rounds in round three for the Saturday TV window.

Now there is one benefit to this Pro-Am versus the one we used to get at Pebble Beach before it thankfully became a signature event. Outside of Mia Hamm, Don Cheadle, and Carlton from Fresh Prince, no one has likely heard of any of these amateurs before, so there’s no need to show their shots. Unless you’re a guy deep diving cheap CFOs in your Fortune 500 Underdog Amex Drafts, you’ll be fine. When I spoke with Michael Kim about the American Express, he mentioned how most of the Ams actually prefer PGA West to Pebble Beach since it’s far warmer this time of year and the vibes are far more relaxed. Plus, it is always kind of hilarious to see some 21-handicap duffing chips in the background while the drones are doing coverage of the green, while real players lining up putts.

15 of the past 17 champions have played at least one of the first two Hawaii events to start the year. Since the Hawaii swing was just a single tournament this year, I’m curious to see if the players who warmed up at the Sony Open will have an advantage.

Since 2007, seven of the last 19 American Express winners made this event the site of their first win, with then amateur Nick Dunlap accomplishing the feat two years ago.

Worth noting, this field is pretty stacked for the caliber of tournament. Especially with two elevated events, Genesis, and Pebble Beach all coming the next month, with a lot of players enjoying heading to Phoenix Super Bowl weekend as well. The four-time, four-time, four-time, four-time reigning PGA Player Of The Year Scottie Scheffler is making his first start of 2026. Devotees will remember he was committed to this event a year ago before slicing his hand on a wine glass. Somehow, despite being about the weakest field he plays in all year, Scheffler has one Top 10 in five starts at the American Express, and that came before he was the Scheffler we’re currently accustomed to — T3 in 2020.

Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, Justin Rose, Harris English, Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Alex Noren, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, Min WOOOO Lee, Akshay Bhatia, Jason Day, Rasmus Hojgaard, Aldrich Potgiter, and Rickie Fowler are all Joining Scottie at PGA West.

Notable names in the field who also played the Sony Open: Henley, MacIntyre, Griffin, Brian Harman, Kurt Kitayama, Michael Kim, Ryan Gerard, Si WOO Kim, Sam Stevens, Taylor Pendrith, Billy Horschel, Nico Echavarria, Nick Taylor, Matt McCarty, Harry Hall, Daniel Berger, Adam Scott, Rico Hoey.

Kevin Yu is listed back in the field after withdrawing from the Sony Open. Marco Penge is absent once again due to illness and has yet to make his 2026 debut. And the biggest injury news is Sungjae Im. Im announced he suffered a wrist injury on his Instagram account and is now out for an undetermined amount of time.

2026 American Express: Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Birdie Or Better
  • Proximity 50-125 Yards
  • Good Drives Gained

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

 

2026 American Express: Course(s)

Course: Stadium Course at PGA West (SC)

  • Par: 72
  • Yardage: 7,187
  • Greens: Poa Trivialis
  • Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 90+
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
  • Shotlink: Yes

Streak finder: If you’re getting cute, front-to-back holds the slight edge, but not sure it will matter. Hole 8 (51.8% birdie-or-better) is the easiest on the course, but Holes 9-10 are more difficult than average. That’s slightly better than Holes 18-1-2, a stretch that also features only one favorable hole (Hole 2: 28.6% birdie-or-better)

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 194 yards

The two toughest holes (and three of the four hardest) are Par 3’s

2025 Straka: Par’d the first three for the week, birdied three of the final five on Par 3’s

Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 415 yards

The two hardest Par 4’s come late (Holes 15 and 18), both with a sub 15% under par rate

2025 Straka: Across the two rounds here, played the front 9 Par 4’s 5-under par

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 572 yards

All have an under par rate over 34% (three with an eagle rate of +2%)

2025 Straka: First bogey of the week was Hole 16 on Sunday, played the final six Par 5’s at even par

Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (TC)

  • Par: 72
  • Yardage: 7,147
  • Greens: Poa Trivialis
  • Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 78
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 6
  • Shotlink: No

Streak finder: There will be streaks, but not many at either turn. Holes 8-9-17-18 are all among the six most difficult holes on the course.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 185 yards

Three of the four toughest holes are Par 3’s (two on the front 9)

2025 Straka: Birdies two of four

Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 424 yards

Hole 18 is the second toughest on the property (19.2% over par rate)

2025 Straka: Birdie two of the first four Par 4’s, birdies one of the final six

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 544 yards

Three hold an eagle rate over 2.5%, Hole 11 has an under-par rate of 63.4%

2025 Straka: Par’d the two on the front nine, birdied the two on the back

Course: LA Quinta CC (LQ)

  • Par: 72
  • Yardage: 7,060
  • Greens: Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed
  • Average Green Size: 4,773 sq. ft.
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 82
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
  • Shotlink: No

Streak finder: No edge to be had … Holes 17-18-1 all have a birdie rate over 18%, Holes 9-10-11 have a lower average score than Holes 17-18-1 thanks to Hole 11 being the 3rd easiest on the course.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 195 yards

The four highest par rates on the course are the Par 3’s (three had a bogey rate over 12%)

2025 Straka: Birdied both Par 3’s on the back 9 as part of a six-birdie in eight-hole stretch

Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 415 yards

The two toughest holes are both Par 4’s (Holes 2 and 14), the three easiest Par 4’s come on the front 9

2025 Straka: Birdied the final two Par 4’s after eight straight Par 4 pars prior

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 533 yards

Four easiest holes on the course (three had an eagle rate over 3.5%)

2025 Straka: Birdied them all (Hole 13 completed a birdie streak)

2026 American Express: Past Winners

2025: Sepp Straka (+5000) -25 beats Justin Thomas by 2

  • 10 of the top 11 finishers gained in Prox 175-200 in SC
  • 15 of the top 17 finishers failed to gain ground putting from 20-25 feet

2024: Nick Dunlap (+30000) -29 beats Christiaan Bezuidenhout by 1

  • Fired a Round 3 60 (10 birdies and an eagle), he was five shots better than Bezuidenhout on that day after entering the day up just one stroke on him)
  • Bogey on #6 in Round 1 … only one over-par hole the rest of the way (three eagles
  • Across the weekend (La Quinta and Stadium), he birdied 8 of 18 back-9 holes
  • Couldn’t sustain the success: 34th at this event last season (-1 stroke T2G)

2023: Jon Rahm (+750, betting favorite) -27 beats Davis Thompson by 1

  • Hot starts in both weekend rounds (-4 through 5 holes on Saturday, birdie-birdie start to Sunday)
  • Final 3 rounds: 2 bogeys (both came on Par 3’s)
  • Across two weekend rounds at the Stadium Course, he went under par (in at least one of the rounds) on 11 of the 18 holes.
  • 14 of the top 15 finishers gained fairways.
  • Won despite losing 2.2 strokes putting (Top 10 in approach and off the tee) at SC

2022: Hudson Swafford (+15000) -23 beats Tom Hoge by 2

  • Trailed Hoge by 6 shots entering the weekend (66-64 close)
  • One par on the back-9 Sunday (birdie-birdie-birdie-bogey-birdie-bogey-eagle-birdie-par)
  • Consistent — birdied Holes 2-5-6-8-12 in both Stadium rounds
  • Picked up 6 shots on Sunday on Lee Hodges and 9 on Paul Barjon
  • Didn’t need to be flawless — won a shootout despite two rounds with three bogeys
  • The top 8 finishers all gained putting from 10-15 feet at SC

2021: Si WOO Kim (+6000) -23 beats Patrick Cantlay by 1

  • Played Three Round at the Stadium Course during the COVID year (One at NC)
  • Bogey-free in three rounds at the SC (17 birdies and an eagle)
  • Dominated Stadium Hole #5 (eagle-birdie-birde) and that was in the middle of a tournament deciding run on Sunday (Holes 4-11: six birdies)
  • No top 20 finisher lost strokes in approach; the podium finishers all gained over 3.5 strokes with the flat stick at SC

2020: Andrew Landry (+20000)

  • Gave Abe Ancer a shot (four back entering Sunday) with a bogey streak on Sunday (Holes 13-15) … the struggles weren’t predictable, he was -2 on those three holes in the other SC round (Thursday)
  • Birdied three holes in a row in all four rounds

First Round Leaders

2025 ROUND 1

  • 62 – JT Poston (NT) (A 76 in Round 2 took him out of contention. Finished T12)
  • 63 – Justin Lower (LQ) (Got worse each round on way to T3)
  • 64 – Jason Day (LQ), J.J. Spaun (LQ), Chris Kirk (LQ), Joel Dahmen (NT), Matti Schmid (NT) (Day finished T3 the others finished nothing better than T29, with 2 MC o the group)

2024 ROUND 1

2023 ROUND 1

  • 62 – Davis Thompson (LQ) (runner-up, 10 shots better Thurs-Fri than the weekend)
  • 64 – Jon Rahm (LQ) (winner, opened with consecutive 64’s)
  • 64 – Taylor Montgomery (LQ) (his best round of the week, worst came on Friday with a 69)
  • 64 – Matti Schmid (SC) (couldn’t sustain it, posted a 72 on Friday)
  • 64 – Sam Burns (SC) (all over the place: 64-70-64-68)
  • 64 – Tyler Duncan (NT) (disappointed with consecutive 71’s over the weekend)

2022 ROUND 1

  • 62 – Lee Hodges (LQ) (all over the place: 62-72-64-70, he was the best on property in Rounds 1 and 3, only 16 golfers were worse on Friday)
  • 62 – Patrick Cantlay (LQ) (only round better than 68)
  • 64 – Cam Young (LQ) (only round better than 68)
  • 64 – KH Lee (SC) (only round better than 71)

2026 American Express: Notes

Historically, stacking La Quinta and the Nicklaus Course for a single-round showdown provided an easier path to green screens. But over the past few years, the Stadium Course started to play just as easily. While low scores are available at all three tracks, there are far more landmines at SC, with over 90 bunkers and seven holes with water hazards spread across the grounds, coupled with the tiny greens.

The forced layups, a common trait of Pete Dye designs, have the Stadium Course posting an average drive of 282 yards — 10 yards shorter than the average PGA TOUR event. Although that number bumped up to a five-year high in 2025 of 288 yards.

The Stadium Course also sees the fewest drives over 300 yards during the season at ~10%. As a result, the Stadium Course historically rates among the lowest in hit green percentage on second shots into Par 5s (12% Going for Green Hit % vs 23% GTG Hit% TOUR Average)

None of this is to say bombers won’t have success in the desert. Rahm, Vegas, and Swafford all have victories over the past decade. But, where bombers have a distinct advantage at some courses, the power advantage off the tee is mitigated this week. Hence, Straka, Si Woo, Landry, Long, Dufner, Haas, Gay, and Wilson all hoisted novelty checks in their careers. This has opened the American Express up to extremely long shots winning every few years. The AMEX is a “Piece of Shit Fucking Setup. Putting Contest”, after all.

With prevalent water and sand plus an extra round at the Stadium Course, finding the fairway becomes critical, despite not having one definitive prototypical skill set to target. Simply sorting by fairways gained can start you in the proper direction, but that won’t tell the entire story. Bombers will inherently see their accuracy increase over their yearly baseline as they won’t be hitting as many drivers off the tee, and if they are wayward with the big stick, at least they’ll be closer to the hole for an easier recovery if the ball stays out of the hazards.

Since 2020, the field has made birdie or better 27% of the time when in the fairway at the Stadium Course, the highest Birdie or Better percentage from the fairway of any tournament on TOUR. It’s the only course with a Birdie or Better percentage from inside 125 yards greater than 30%. And, if you missed the fairway, as long as you weren’t in a hazard of any kind, it didn’t limit scoring too much. The field averaged 35 feet out of the rough, marking the closest Rough Proximity of any course. From the rough, at the top end, players made birdie or better 22% of the time on the Stadium Course in 2020. There’s essentially no rough at any of these courses with the Pro-Am. Can’t have Ams hacking out of PGA rough and playing 10-hour rounds.

Scoring on Par 5s is essential. It’s pretty simple for the entire field, though. Since 2012, scoring on Par 5s at the American Express has been the easiest of any event on the PGA TOUR, playing more than 3,000 strokes under par than the next closest event.

2025 Smallest Avg. Greens by sq. ft.

  • 3,500 – Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach)
  • 3,700 – Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
  • 4,300 – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
  • 4,500 – Albany (Hero World Challenge)
  • 4,773 – La Quinta CC (American Express)
  • 5,000 – PGA West Stadium (American Express)

NC actually has much larger putting surfaces than the others at 7,000 sq. ft., yet still ranked inside the top five courses on TOUR in fewest three putts in 2025.

For years, the putting surfaces were officially listed as Bermuda grass, despite it being dormant at this time of year, with Poa being what the field is actually putting on. They officially changed that in 2026 on the course info sheet. The greens are overseeded with either Ryegrass or Poa Trivialis, and historically, they run on the slower side of average; the Nicklaus Course ranked inside the top five of courses with the fewest three-putts in 2019, 2020, and 2022

Only 5 players have won in their tournament debut: Nick Dunlap (2026), Adam Long (2019), Jhonny Vegas (2011), Charley Hoffman (2007), and Arnold Palmer (1960).

it can’t go unmentioned that this is a Pete Dye track. So, here are the SG: Total leaders on Pete Dye courses over the past three years. Reminder: Only two of the four rounds are contested at the Dye Stadium Course.

Stats & Custom Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 American Express Picks

Ben Griffin — Obviously, Griffin has taken a leap over the past 12 months. He’s now a three-time winner and returns to a site that was plenty comfortable for him before he was a Top 10-ranked player in the world. Griffin’s gotten better in each of his three AMEX starts (T7/T9/T32), on the back of excellent putting performances on the greens at the Stadium Course; in six career rounds, he’s gained a gaudy +2.37 SG: PUTT/Round. Now, in 2026, Griffin has morphed into a top-tier T2G player as well, while excelling from 50-125 yards. A proximity range seen more at this event than any other on TOUR.

Alex Smalley — Normally, I’d hesitate to back Smalley at an event which requires so many one-putts to get into contention, yet, after digging into his putting splits, Smalley’s best surface is actually Poa Trivialis, where he’s gained +0.31 Strokes putting per round over the last year. Smalley is wildly inconsistent yet has remained solid tee-to-green with the ability to spike: Two Top 5 finishes in his past four starts. Very sneakily 3rd in SG: TOTAL on Pete Dye courses over the past three years too.

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