2025 Valero Texas Open- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
a year ago
The Valero Texas Open is the calm before next week’s storm at Augusta National. While most of the world’s elite are skipping the trip to San Antonio, 25 players have chosen this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. It includes, perhaps, one of the best fields ever in San Antonio, with six of the top-16 players in the current OWGR list, and provides one last opportunity for anyone not in next week’s field to punch their ticket with a win.
This Greg Norman design is pretty straightforward. It plays 7,438 yards from the tips as a Par-72. The fairways are narrow and firm, but the rough isn’t overly penal. Wayward drives are penalized, though, because the course uses a lot of the natural layout surrounding it, like rocky waste areas, tall native grass, and plants.
This setup brings every golfer into play. It’s a long course, with difficult-to-reach Par-5s, which forces a lot of layups and common landing spots among the field. Distance is always king, but it is not a requirement here. Off the tee, I’d prefer accuracy (in the form of distance from the edge of the fairway), or at least lean toward a golfer ranking higher in Good Drives% than one who thrives on driving distance.
Approach ranges vary, but we see a higher dispersion of both long irons (200+ yards) and wedges (100 yards and in) here because of the length. Wedge play will be key on the Par-5s, and holding greens with long irons is tricky here, especially if the wind is acting up, so scrambling is also essential to success, particularly for longer hitters who are more aggressive on these long par-5s.
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For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the TPC San Antonio stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Tee-to-Green (Scoring Conditions Difficult and Very Difficult)
- SG: Ball-striking (Gaining on APP and OTT Difficult and Very Difficult)
- Recent Form (SG: Total Last 12, 24, and 36 Rounds)
- Distance From The Edge of the Fairway
- Going for the Green% (Long and Very Long Courses)
- SG: Windy (Forecast dependent, but always worth a look here)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Valero Texas Open Outright Targets
Daniel Berger (35/1)
Daniel Berger‘s recent string of strong finishes turned this start in San Antonio into a warm-up for the Masters, with Berger working his way inside the OWGR’s top 50 in the past few weeks. He’s finished T25 or better in five straight starts, gaining strokes throughout the bag.
Berger came out as the sixth-best player in my model this week, with no real weaknesses in his statistical profile. He keeps the ball in play off the tee, he’s among the top ten in SG: T2G when it’s difficult to gain strokes ball-striking, and his ability to control his trajectory helps if the winds kick up. Berger is also very strong around the greens, which can matter a lot this week, and his best putting performances over the past two seasons have come on Poa trivialis greens. In a week with a lot of untenable prices on the odds board, Berger’s 35/1 feels more than fair.
Rico Hoey (66/1)
Rico Hoey is a new addition to ‘Team No Putt.’ It’s not necessarily a team that golfers want to be on, but it is a compliment in the sense that your ball-striking has to be good enough to carry you through your putting struggles from time to time. Hoey is joined in the field by other “TNP” luminaries such as Tony Finau, Kurt Kityama, and Doug Ghim, just to name a few.
Over his past 24 rounds, Hoey has gained 2+ strokes tee-to-green in 47.37% of his rounds, the highest rate in this week’s field. He’s one of the best ‘total drivers’ on Tour, with elite distance and accuracy off the tee. That edge in distance, combined with his strong long iron play, allows Hoey to be aggressive in going for the green, a key metric this week given the length of TPC San Antonio’s par 5s. Hoey has some painfully poor putting performances on his recent ledger, but the glass-half-full in me wants to ignore that and note that he gained strokes in all four of his rounds last week at Memorial Park. With putting not a big part of my model this week, Hoey was a surprise to see at number four overall, making him a must for me this week.
Ryan Gerard (70/1)
Another golfer whose spot on the odds board doesn’t align with his spot in my model is Ryan Gerard. I’m giving more weight to my model this week, running back the same one I ran here last year that landed me on Russell Henley (T4) and Akshay Bhatia (1st).
2025 has been kind to the 2024 Korn Ferry grad. He’s made the cut in eight of his nine starts this season on Tour, finishing T25 or betting four of them, and he’s coming off of his best finish of the year, a solo ninth-place finish in Houston. Gerard has gained strokes on approach in each of his starts this season, and his limited sample shows a golfer with plus distance and accuracy off the tee as well. The UNC grad has only 12 rounds played on Poa trivialis greens, but he’s averaging 0.40 strokes per round, which is an encouraging sign.
Victor Perez (110/1)
Victor Perez gets the last spot on my betting card this week, coming in at number 16 in my model despite being north of 100/1 on the odds board. The Frenchman isn’t proficient at any specific part of the game, but he’s solid throughout the bag this season.
Perez’s been in the mix in three straight starts (T18, T22, T18). He has plus distance and keeps the ball in play off the tee, and his recent iron play has been terrific, as you can see in the image above. Over the past 12 months, Perez ranks seventh in approach on courses where it’s difficult to gain strokes ball-striking, which is what we have this week in San Antonio. His ball-striking baseline is solid, and when his putter spikes, like it did during the Olympics and last year’s Canadian Open, he’s very much in the mix. I’m playing him as an each-way bet at 85/1 with 10 places (Bet365), but 110/1 is his best price in to-win markets.
