2025 Tour Championship – Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The 2025 season and FedExCup Playoffs come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club, the annual host of the Tour Championship. As you likely already know, we have a big change in the structure of the event, with the much-maligned starting strokes format eliminated this season. The 30 golfers in the field will start at even par, with the winner of this week’s event earning the title of FedExCup champion and the $10 million top prize that comes with it.

East Lake saw a significant renovation prior to last year’s event. Hundreds of trees were removed from the property, every inch of turf was removed and replanted, and all 18 greens were fully redesigned. Players talked about how sight lines changed drastically from previous years, and Andrew Green, the architect who spearheaded the project, was correct when he said, “nothing is the same, not a single golf shot on the property.”

The removal of trees and widening of fairways made the course play a bit easier off the tee, though there’s still a premium on finding the Zoysia grass fairways off the tee. The Bermuda grass rough is long and penal due to the grabby nature of it and the unpredictable lies it creates for approach shots.

The green complexes are firm and fast, and the course has a lot more contouring and slope than it did before Green’s work, which impacts both putting and approach shots. They also increased the challenge around the green, with more shaved runoffs and collection areas around the green instead of thick Bermuda grass aprons that previously slowed down wayward approach shots.

Overall, East Lake is a long par-70 track, playing at 7,440 from the tips. Lake is in the name, so we have water hazards on eight holes. Handicapping this event is a bit tricky this year. First, we only have one year of data on the new layout, so I don’t want to make any sweeping assumptions based on just four rounds of play 12 months ago. Second, there has to be some effect on how the field approaches this week compared to past seasons now that the starting strokes are removed. It’s a no-cut 30-man field with a huge prize regardless of where you finish, but the reward for winning is significant. That was never an option for most of the field here in years past, but now it is. Will we see a more aggressive approach for some?

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For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Driving Distance
• Par 4 Scoring Average (Long and Very Long Courses)
• SG: Ball-striking (Long and Very Long Courses, Driver heavy)
• SG: Total (Par 70, Long and Very Long Courses)
• Scrambling Short Grass (Fast Bermuda greens)
• SG: P (Baseline putting and Bermuda grass putting)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

Even though the season is winding down, we’re still adding new tools and data to the site every week. Check out our new Rolling Averages view in the Rabbit Hole!

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Tour Championship Outright Targets

Ben Griffin (25/1, Caesars)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler” market)

Ben Griffin went from a long-shot Ryder Cup contender to an absolute lock over the past few months. There was a hiccup for a minute there, with back-to-back missed cuts at the John Deere Classic and Open Championships, but in the other nine events surrounding those MCs, Griffin has finished no worse than T14. He’s consistently in contention, and his game is perfectly suited for East Lake.

Griffin ranks second in average strokes gained per round over the past 36 rounds, and he’s played well at longer Par-70 tracks this season. Over the past six months, Griffin has averaged 1.59 strokes per round on long golf courses, which ranks third among this week’s field. He also grades out really well in scrambling from the short grass (6th) and Bermuda putting (2nd), which is going to play a role in deciding who wins this week.

Maverick McNealy (28/1, Caesars)

(“Without Scottie Scheffler” market)

Another player who ranks highly in the short game metrics I’m leaning on this week is Maverick McNealy. The data shows that McNealy is a significantly better scrambler from the short grass versus the rough, so he gets a bump there this week. We also know that his baseline putting is strong, especially on Bermuda.

He carries plus distance off the tee, and his irons are streaky, so I’m looking for him to carry last week’s momentum at the BMW (solo third-place) into East Lake. We certainly know there’s a lot on the line for him, and he’ll have a valid case for Bethpage if he can post a solid four rounds this week.