2025 Scottish Open – Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The first leg of the U.K. swing kicks off at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for Year 3 of the co-sanctioned Scottish Open. Previously a D.P. World Tour event, the Scottish Open is now equal parts DPWT and PGA Tour, with 75 golfers from each tour participating, designed as a warm-up for next week’s Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.

The course is not a pure links setup with the numerous tree-lined holes, undulations, and heavy rough in play just off the fairways (especially on the back nine). But there is a definitive links-style component to the course. It is off the coastline and subject to windy conditions, and the red fescue turf is firm and tight. This leads to fast-running surfaces on the fairways and aprons leading to the greens, where a lack of bunkers in front encourages the use of the ground game and bump-and-run shots. Many of the course’s 83 bunkers are links-style pot bunkers with deep riveted faces, and the fairway bunkers are extremely penal. The field is finding the green in regulation just 18.4% of the time from the course’s fairway bunkers, which is more than 30% lower than the average PGA Tour event.

As we should expect in Europe, the weather is the course’s best defense. When the wind is quiet, this place can be easily picked by the world’s best. Unfortunately, we’ve seen very different scores come Sunday afternoon when the winds swirl and gust. We’ve also seen that the penalty for missed fairways off the tee is non-existent, which changes the way that I’m handicapping this event.

It’s also been quite difficult to gain strokes putting at The Renaissance Club. The large greens are well-contoured and play very slowly compared to what we typically see stateside, and the made putt rates from 3-5 and 4-8 feet are roughly 10% lower than average.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total (Last 12 and 36 Rounds)
• 3-putt AVD%
• SG: Hybrid Links/Links
• SG: APP (Last 12 and 36 Rounds)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Scottish Open Outright Targets

In my opinion, this is one of the toughest events to handicap. We’ve only come to The Renaissance Club a handful of times in this format, and the variance in weather has made the course play significantly different from year to year. I’m playing a lighter-than-normal card and focusing on the “Without Scheffler/McIlroy, etc.” markets because the prices aren’t too dissimilar from the markets that include them.

Winner w/o Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, and Fleetwood (FanDuel)

Sam Burns (28/1)

This recent run for Sam Burns has to be one of the best stretches of his career, and definitely one of his best runs over the past three seasons. Since the Masters, Burns has finished T30 or better in eight straight starts, with just one of the eight outside the top 19.

Burns is gaining strokes throughout the bag right now too, taking significant strides with his approach and ball-striking, which were underwhelming for most of the first four months of the season. Over the past 36 rounds, Burns ranks fourth in this week’s field in SB: Ball-striking, and there’s a strong case to be made that he’s the best putter on the planet, which I’m valuing a bit more than normal this week in Scotland. Burns ranks out first in overall SG: Putting over the past 50 rounds, and remains among the top three in the field when looking at performances on slow greens and 3-putt avoidance.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (30/1)

Another golfer who’s turned the corner of late is Matt Fitzpatrick. After missing three cuts in five starts this spring, Fitzpatrick has finished T40 or better in eight straight starts, including back-to-back strong finishes at the Travelers (T17) and in Detroit (T8).

Every part of Fitzpatrick’s game is trending upward over his past 12 and 24 rounds when compared to his rolling 50- and 100-round baselines, which had declined significantly over the past calendar year. He finished T6 here back in 2022 when the weather showed up, so we know he can hang if the conditions go sideways. He’s also an elite putter, especially in the 3-5 and 4-8 foot range that matters so much this week.

Harris English (50/1)

It’s been a quietly excellent 2025 for Harris English, who finds himself squarely on the U.S. Ryder Cup team if captain Keegan Bradley needed to pick today. He fits what I’m looking for this week because his current form is solid, and he’s an elite putter, especially on slow greens and inside ten feet.

English has played his best golf against the strongest fields this season, including a T12 at Augusta, T11 at Philly Cricket, T2 at the PGA, T12 at Memorial, and a T4 last time out at the Travelers. He won at Torrey Pines back in January, another course that demands elite total driving and long iron play, which I think we’ll see this week in Scotland.

Victor Perez (75/1)

Victor Perez struggled last week at TPC Deere Run, and he’s a bit volatile to begin with, but the ceiling performances are quite intriguing. Over the past year, Perez has gained 4+ strokes ball-striking at the 10th highest rate in this week’s field (5.48%), ahead of Sepp Straka, Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy.

Perez is also an above-average putter, ranking inside the top ten in this week’s field in SG: Putting on slow greens. He’s available at significantly longer odds if you’re willing to take on the top of the odds board.