2025 RBC Heritage- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

With the world’s best golfers already in the area after last week’s Masters, most are making the short drive south from Augusta, Georgia, to Hilton Head, South Carolina, and Harbour Town Golf Links, one of the many Pete Dye-design tracks on Tour.

Harbour Town couldn’t be further from last week’s walk around Augusta National. It’s a coastal par-71 course characterized by numerous doglegs, overhanging trees, a wide array of challenging bunkers, and small greens, measuring 7,191 yards. Harbour Town is often described as quirky and suffocating, with narrow sightlines when standing on the tee box. Another Pete Dye design staple is the forced layups and doglegs to minimize distance and reward accuracy. But don’t think of it as binary “yes/no” accuracy in terms of fairways hit. Harbour Town requires accuracy within the fairway, as poorly positioned drives make for impossible second shots.

This setup brings more golfers into play, with most winners coming from down the board here historically. Signature Event fields certainly change the calculus a bit with that trend, as we saw with Scottie Scheffler winning last season, but it’s something to note.

The poa trivialis/bermudagrass mix greens are difficult to hit, not only because they’re the second-smallest on Tour but also because a lot of second shots are impacted by dangling palmetto tree limbs, even for those in the fairway. Scrambling matters because missed greens are inevitable, but it’s one of the easier places on Tour to get up and down because the course is so flat, and the small greens make for fewer 50+ feet lag putt opportunities.

This is the third year in a row that Harbour Town gets signature event status, so the field looks quite different from your standard RBC Heritage historically. This is a small-field, no-cut event, with 72 players in the field (Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama are eligible but skipping).

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Harbour Town stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Ball-striking (Short and Very Short Courses)
• SG: Tee-to-Green (Small Greens)
• Greens in Regulation (GIR – Difficult)
• Distance from the edge of the fairway
• SG: Ball-striking (Less than Driver)
• Around the green proximity

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s RBC Heritage Outright Targets

Russell Henley (25/1)

Russell Henley left Augusta National earlier than most expected, missing the cut on the number. He played really well on Friday, finishing third in the field in SG: APP and posting the third-lowest score of the day with a 4-under 68. Unfortunately, Henley couldn’t make a putt on Thursday and dug himself into a hole he couldn’t escape. Overall, I’m encouraged by the continued solid ball-striking form, so as a Russ Henley apologist, I’m spinning this forward positively.

The setup at Harbour Town feels like an ideal spot for his game. He lacks the distance of the upper-tier elites, but it’s not required this week. Henley has the ball on a string. He’s finished inside the top 20 in three of his past four appearances at Harbour Town, with an average SG: T2G mark of at least 1.5 strokes. He’s inside the top ten in both SG: BS on short and very short courses and courses that are predominantly ‘less than driver’ off the tee, two key metrics this week.

Viktor Hovland (35/1)

I think the perception about how Viktor Hovland‘s playing right now would be quite different if he weren’t so transparent about all of his tinkering. Yes, he’s fallen back from being discussed as the top player in the world, which felt like a real discussion after his 2023 FedEx Cup playoff run, but many of his game’s dominant elements are still firing.

Hovland has gained strokes on approach in 10 of his past 11 starts. With Harbour Town forcing the field into so many approach shots from the 150-200-yard range, it sets up Hovland to showcase the strongest part of his game. Looking at the past two years, Hovland ranks fifth in GIR% when it’s difficult to hit the greens in regulation, and he’s played well on this week’s corollary courses, one of which he won at just three weeks ago.

The small greens force golfers to rely on their short game a bit more here, but this is one of the easiest places to gain around the green. The greens are fairly flat, so while it’ll matter, I’m hoping it matters less for Hovland since he’ll need to be hitting greens at a high rate in order to win, making the around-the-green demand less.

Denny McCarthy (60/1)

Denny McCarthy‘s short game has always been exceptional, but the rest of his game has markedly improved this season. He’s been a field-average approach player for the past two seasons, and it was worse than that for his first few seasons on Tour, but Denny is gaining nearly a half-stroke per round on average in 2025. He’s also added distance while maintaining his above-average accuracy, rounding into a more complete golfer compared to seasons past.

Harbour Town has been an annual stop for McCarthy, though he’s really yet to challenge the top of the board, with his best finish a T13 back in 2021. He leads this week’s field in SG: putting and short-game, averaging 1.01 strokes gained per round over the past two years. In a strong field, no-cut event like this, Denny’s ability to black out on the greens for four days is something I’m looking for when shopping for outrights down the board.

Davis Thompson (75/1)

Davis Thompson couldn’t make a putt last week. He’s not the first and certainly won’t be the last debutant at Augusta National to struggle on their greens. For as bad as his putting was, his approach game was absolutely dialed in, which has been the case now in each of Thompson’s past six starts.

Thompson ranks fifth in this week’s field in SG: APP over the past 12 rounds, and he’s seventh over his past 24. He ranked among the top five in approach in two of the four rounds last week at the Masters, and I’m looking for him to carry that momentum into his start this week at Harbour Town. Thompson is also exceptional around the greens, ranking fourth in around-the-green proximity over the past 50 rounds.

Tom Hoge (100/1)

Tom Hoge is playing way too well right now to be 100/1 in any field. He’s one of the best iron players in the world, and even against his strong baseline, he’s absolutely flushing it right now. His lead-in form to last week’s event included a T3 at Sawgrass and a T5 in San Antonio. Hoge followed it up with his best finish ever at Augusta, a T14, once again on the back of his strong approach play.

Hoge’s seeing it well on the green right now, too, gaining at least 0.5 strokes putting in four straight starts. He’ll play from the fairway, and he’s just about as good as anyone in this field from 175 yards and in.