2025 Memorial- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The Tour’s best golfers, minus Rory McIlroy, head to Muirfield Village this week for the 2025 Memorial. The Jack Nicklaus design is a stern test of golf, and that, combined with Jack’s presence during the week, has always drawn an elite-level field to Dublin, Ohio, every year. Once again, this year’s event is a small-field signature event, with a 36-hole cut down to the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead, despite being a 72-golfer field.

The 2020 redesign stretched the par-72 track to 7,569 from the tips, making it the fifth-longest on Tour. The fairways are generous, although tighter following the redesign; however, the rough is tall and thick if you miss the fairways. Muirfield Village also has some of the smallest greens on tour, contoured bentgrass greens, with a premium put on elite approach play from 175 yards out. Jack’s objective is to challenge the winner to use every club in their bag. He has achieved this by designing a test where every aspect of a golfer’s game is more difficult than what players typically encounter on a standard PGA Tour stop. We’ve seen the cutline around +4 with a single-digit under-par winner for the past few seasons, and I’d expect more of the same in 2025.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Muirfield Village stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf

Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: Total (Long/Very Long Courses + Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• SG: APP (GIR Accuracy: Difficult)
• SG: Ball-striking (Long Rough + Rough Penalty High)
• Good Drive% (Long/Very Long Courses + Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• Hybrid Total Driving (Driving Distance + Driving Accuracy/DFEF)
• ARG Proximity

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s Memorial Outright Targets

Scottie Scheffler is your defending champion, and in a market without Rory McIlroy, he’s sitting short of 3/1 to repeat. All of the sportsbooks are kind enough to offer ‘Without’ markets these days, with most offering ‘Without Scheffler’ and some variation of ‘Without the Big Guns,’ which also eliminates 3-4 other shorter options in a given week. This week, FanDuel was asleep at the wheel. Their ‘Without Scheffler’ prices were identical to their full market prices on some golfers, while others were only slightly adjusted. The same applies to their other ‘Without’ option, which excludes Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Thomas. That’s where I went shopping this week, and I suggest you look to do the same. I made small investments in Schauffele and Morikawa, knowing that I could cash in on two bets if they won this event.

Viktor Hovland (25/1)

It’s clear to me that Viktor Hovland turned the corner back in March, and though he hasn’t truly contended in his four starts since his win at the Valspar Championship, he’s shown more of the consistent ball-striking that made him an undisputed top-five player in the world in the summer of 2023. Before his end-of-the-season heater in 2023, Hovland’s first win of the calendar year came here at the Memorial.

Hovland’s ball-striking numbers at last year’s Memorial were even better than they were during his 2023 win, and he’s been at his best when the test is difficult like this. Over the past two years, Hovland ranks between third and seventh in the field in all of the different difficult stat buckets that I’m focused on this week. Things like difficult scoring conditions on long courses, greens in regulation into small greens with long rough, ball-striking on long courses with penal rough, etc.

As is often the case with Hovland, his week will come down to his ability to be close to the field average around the greens, and that’s a bet I’m willing to make at this price.

Corey Conners (25/1)

A case could be made that Corey Conners is playing the best golf of his career right now. He’s a bit under the radar since he hasn’t won, but he’s been in contention three times on Sunday (API, PLAYERS, and Masters) against the best fields in golf.

Conners has finished inside the top ten in seven of his past 15 starts, and only Scottie Scheffler is gaining more strokes ball-striking over the past three months. He’s one of the most accurate drivers on Tour, and he does it without hemorrhaging distance, which is important this week.

Conners’s ceiling is often capped by his inability to hole putts, but he’s hovering around field average so far in 2025, and over the past two seasons, he’s performed best on bentgrass greens, which he’ll see this week in Ohio.

Matt Fitzpatrick (35/1)

There’s no chance that you’re going to run a model or do a data deep-dive and end up on Matthew Fitzpatrick this week, but I think there are a few subtle shifts at play here. After bouncing back and forth between two caddies for the better part of two seasons, Fitzpatrick’s long-time caddy, Billy Foster, retired back in March. Daniel Pratt would fill in for Foster a few times each season over the past few years, as Foster wanted to do fewer transatlantic flights from England to the States. Now, Pratt is on the bag full-time, and that consistency has to be a positive overall.

The bigger thing here is the eye test, which showed up in a big way for me at Quail Hollow. I won’t pretend to have the eye or the experience to notice subtle swing changes, but Fitzpatrick was on our TVs a lot more at the PGA Championship since he was playing well, and two things jumped out to me. Fitzpatrick has always had a bowed wrist and a flattened shaft at the top of his backswing, and he was noticeably more steep at the PGA. He also had a bit of a Sheffler-esque slide with his front foot, more open at address and post-contact.

I don’t know when this change was implemented, but he backed up a T23 at Philly Cricket with a T8 at the PGA Championship and now heads to a course that’s hosted some of his best finishes of late. Even last season, with no form to speak of heading into his start at Muirfield Village, Fitzpatrick showed up and finished T5. His 2023 start here was very similar, where he finished T9 after missing the cut at the PGA Championship the week prior. He clearly loves putting on these pure bentgrass greens, and I’m hopeful that I’m reading this situation correctly and that he’s competitive here once again.

Keegan Bradley (40/1)

Keegan’s best finishes on the Tour this season have come at tracks (Bay Hill and Quail Hollow) that demand similar things to what’s asked of the field at Muirfield Village. Bradley is an elite total driver, with plus distance and accuracy, and his high apex helps him hold the ball on these small 5,000 sq. ft. greens from 200+ yards out.

His ball-striking form has been excellent as of late, as has his around-the-green play, which is paramount this week. His putter has let him down at times this season, but he’s improved his strokes gained, putting numbers in five straight starts. Admittedly, they’re still not great, but he’s very familiar with these bentgrass greens at Muirfield Village. Over the past two years, Bradley has performed best on bentgrass greens, gaining nearly 0.4 strokes per round in a 40-round sample.

Bradley has gained strokes putting in each of his past four starts here, and I’m hoping he carries that, along with his recent ball-striking form, over to this week. The “playing captain” conversations will get a lot louder if he does.